Category: Daniel Serwer
Stevenson’s army, March 12
Moment of reflection: Two years ago today, SAIS shut down and I had to teach my first Zoom class.
-FT has good article on Putin’s inner circle.
-NYT debunks Russian claim of US bioweapons lab
– Fred Kaplan reviews Prof Sarotte’s book about NATO.
-AP notes how Congress has pushed Biden on Ukraine.
– WSJ notes China gave nuclear security guarantees to Ukraine in 2013.
And the start of Daylight Savings Time tonight reminds me of the time Congress was considering some change in the law and an Iowa lady wrote to her Senator: “I don’t like Daylight Savings at all. The extra hour of sunlight turns my grass brown.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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This is how bad things could get
Russia is expanding its bombing in Ukraine to the west and deploying its artillery for intensified barrages on Kyiv. Poland is reaching the limits of its capacity to take in refugees. So are other near neighbors. Moscow is accusing the US of supporting biological and chemical warfare research in Ukraine. Russian forces have already taken control of several nuclear power plants. Moscow has also thrown a monkey wrench into negotiations on re-entry of the US into the Iran nuclear deal.
How bad could things get?
Pretty bad. Here are some guesses:
- The Russians could lay siege to Kyiv and obliterate its governing institutions, displacing many of those who remain of its 2.9 million pre-war population.
- They could also destroy what remains of Ukraine’s air force and its ability to operate. That is presumaby the purpose of their attacks on airfields in the west.
- Poland could limit the intake of refugees, forcing many to remain displaced and vulnerable inside Ukraine.
- Russia often accuses its adversaries of doing things it intends to do. Mocow’s obviously false accusations about biological and chemical weapons may presage Moscow’s use of them.
- Russian forces have already risked disaster in occupying nuclear power plants. Their continued operation depends on Ukrainians and electricity supplies that are at risk. A meltdown like the one at Chernobyl in 1986 would be far more catastrophic under current conditions.
- Moscow may de facto scupper the nuclear deal and try to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. That would allow Tehran to proceed with enrichment and nuclear weapons research.
- Putin is using the war in Ukraine to impose a dictatorial regime inside Russia, making dissent and protest ever more difficult.
All the while, Russia will continue to attack population centers, medical facilities, and schools throughout Ukraine. This “Grozny” strategy is a war crime, but then so is the war of aggression Moscow launched without provocation.
Sanctions aren’t likely to work quickly
The NATO Alliance meanwhile continues sitting on its military hands while Russia crosses multiple red lines. The EU and US are imposing more sanctions on trade and investment, but those rarely if ever change an aggressor’s mind quickly. You are far more likely to get what you want from them when you negotiate lifting them rather than when you impose them. The day when that might be possible is far off.
Military responses have been ruled out
President Biden has so far prioritized prevention of a wider war. He has repeatedly emphasized that Americans will not fight in Ukraine. The Pentagon has apparently blocked transfer of military aircraft from Poland to Ukraine on grounds that might cause Russia to attack Poland and trigger NATO’s mutual defense commitment. The US can’t send the best air defense systems because they require trained personnel that Ukraine doesn’t have and can’t produce in short order.
The Americans and other NATO allies are sending massive arms shipments to the Ukrainians, whose commitment to fighting for themselves should not be doubted. But it may not suffice. Ultimately, Russia has resources, technology, manpower, and immorality that Ukraine cannot equal. We are all likely to suffer the consequences.
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Stevenson’s army, March 11
– Politico has the most complete report on the Polish MiG story. But read the transcript of DOD’s Kirby.
– Bipartisan blowback in the Senate.
-78 mostly academic figures send their own letter opposing a no fly zone.
– NYT says Biden will suspend Russia’s PNTR [aka MFN]
-Former CIA official Paul PIllar has excellent piece on what a Ukraine ceasefire has to look like. Be sure to click on link to article by Prof. Zartman.
– NYT reports what Russians hear about the war and what China is reporting.
In other news, Africom wants US troops in Somalia.
–South Korean winner promises defense boost.
-NYT assesses redistricting as even for parties.
Congress added to defense spending. And look what it did for the legislative branch:
Jet setting— Report language directs more robust cyber training for lawmakers and staff traveling abroad, including security for their personal devices.
Intern cash — On average, each Senate office will be allocated around $70,000 for intern compensation.
House compensation study — House Chief Administrative Office is directed to explore ways to increase survey participation and options to mandate participation in the compensation study.
Senate Daycare — The Senate “encourages all stakeholders to continue working towards selecting a preferred site option for site expansion”… keep an eye on the most cutthroat waitlist in town.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 10
– NYT has more on why US rejected Polish offer of MiGs.
– AP reports from Warsaw on the issue.
-Atlantic Council has good analysis of risks of various options of aid to Ukraine, but note that co-author Barry Pavel was co-signer of letter urging “limited no fly zone”.
– Fred Kaplan outlines a possible deal to end the fighting. If only…
-WaPo notes that Putin isn’t so isolated.
– A writer warns of the problems of supporting a Ukrainian insurgency.
This was mentioned in class: a CNAS study that found economic sanctions had meaningful effects only 40% of the time.
– Conservative won close election in South Korea.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Blatant falsehoods parading as diplomacy
Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland tweeted today:
Pleased to speak with Serbian President @avucic to thank Serbia for its support for Ukraine, ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian crisis, and commitment to regional stability. We welcome Serbia’s good relations with neighbors & continued progress along its European path.
It would be hard to write two sentences with more misconceptions.
Other than the volunteers joining pro-Russian forces there, Serbia has offered Ukraine little. Belgrade voted for the General Assembly resolution denouncing Russian aggression. Serbia has also said it will accept Ukrainian refugees, but how many and through what channels is unclear. If it were to accept them in the same proportion as its adveraries in Kosovo, the number would be upwards of 15,000. Belgrade has also promised medical assistance, but when, where, and how is unclear.
What is clear is that Serbia has refused to join international sanctions against Russia, despite its commitment to align its foreign policy with the EU. This is nothing new. At last count, the EU viewed Serbia as 56% aligned, far less than its neighbors. Albania and Montenegro were fully aligned, with North Macedonia at 96% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 70%.
Serbia is a primary factor in regional instability, not stability. Its leadership is calling for a “Serbian world,” analogous to Russian President Putin’s calls for a “Russian world.” That is one of the goals that precipitated the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Serbia’s Montenegrin, Macedonian, and Kosovo neighbors were already nervous about Belgrade’s massive re-armament before the Ukraine war. They now need to worry about whether Serbian President Vucic will, like Putin, claim genocide against co-nationals and invade one or more of the neighbors. Serbia’s relations with its neighbors, in whose internal politics it interferes, are notably lousy, not good.
Serbia is basically stalled on its EU accession path, for good reasons. While it implements the technical requirements, it lacks a free press and independent judiciary as well as a serious effort at transitional justice. Petrit Selimi (@Petrit), a Serbian-speaking Kosovar, tweets daily on the Serbian press. Today’s delicacies:
Here’s today’s Vesti, which has a front page big focus on “USA bringing plague to Europe”. In small letters you can read about how China and Russia have found proof USA and #Ukraine have developed many diseases to use against Russians in the war. Quite sick.
(2) oldest newspaper in #Serbia, owned now by governments is asking on front page “Who is collecting DNA of Russians”. It’s another conspiracy theory peddled by #Moscow & #Belgrade that Ukrainians & Americans have collected Russian DNA for special biological warfare. Silly stuff.
(3) Another known tabloid, famous for warmongering, hateful propaganda since 1980s, reports proudly “#Russia building its own world in East.” This is done to counter “Washington threats” and is “new global architecture”. A sinister, murderous version of @MacaesBruno’s Euroasia.
(4) the tragedy in Serbian media scene is that former liberal media have all now become affiliates or serventa of #Serbia government. B92 daily starts with Russian version of the war events in #Ukraine. Today they report Moscow lies on how “Ukraine planned for war in March”.
To be fair, one still finds pockets of smaller newspapers, regional web portals which are independent & try to counter official pro-Russian propaganda in #Serbia. NGOs protested against war in #Ukraine. However the dominant media are beholden to forces supporting death & mayhem.
@Petrit
I’m well aware that diplomats sometimes feel they have to say nice things about foreign leaders in order to bring them around. But this is a case of blatant falsehoods parading as diplomacy. #fail
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Stevenson’s army, March 9
I like a good kielbasa, but look at this:
– VP Harris goes to Poland today, just as the snafu over fighters to Ukraine emerges.
– USG was surprised and unhappy over Poland’s announcement.
– Poland now agrees this has to be a unanimous NATO decision.
– Russian propaganda at home assessed by NYT and by FP.
– Heads of IC give open testimony to House Intelligence Committee. And here’s the DNI’s unclassified annual report.
– Meanwhile, deal reached on spending bills–$1.5 trillion, including $13.6 billion for Ukraine. But also includes short term CR until next Tuesday to allow time for Senate action.
– Interesting analyses: Why Russia is bad at urban warfare, lessons from USMC.
– What Taiwan should learn from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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