Stevenson’s army, June 30
-CNN says Surovikin was secret member of Wagner.-
– Jay Solomon has background on Iran policy envoy’s removal. More from CNN.
– WSJ says Chinese spy balloon used US tech; DODsays it didn’t collect data.
– Sounds like some in DOD are pushing again for ATACMS to Ukraine
– Two views of CBO report: from CNN and from RollCall.
– Retirees recalled to build missiles.
– Hill article notes ways around Tuberville hold on nominees; yes, but they all take a lot of time.
– I get really upset when candidates [like some of the GOP presidential wannabes] show their ignorance when they promise things like “abolish the Commerce Dept”. Do they really want to do away with NOAA and NIST and Constitutionally mandated functions like Census and Patents?
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Stevenson’s army, July 1
– WaPo says CIA director Burns heard Ukraine’s plans
-CFR’s Linda Robinson assesses the Afghan war.
– State Dept, following the DC practice of releasing bad news on Friday afternoon, released the 23 page unclassified part of its 87 page report on the Afghanistan withdrawal. WaPo reports.– Lawfare reports on administration’s cybersecurity priorities.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Something to chew on while I vacation
I am going to try to take the next few days off in rural Wisconsin, but here are a few remarks I made to the Balkans press today:
Bosnia
Q: Dzeilana Pecanin of VoA asked about Srpska Assembly’s announcement that they do not recognize Bosnian Constitutional Court any longer or any of its decisions/laws.
A: The Americans and Europeans are saying the right things, but they aren’t doing anything against Dodik’s unconstitutional usurpation of authority. He is moving slice by slice towards de facto RS independence. That can’t be countered with words. Only actions at this point count. There are none.
Kosovo
Besnik Velija of Gazeta Express asked several questions about the ongoing situation in relations with the US, especially in light of the letter to the White House from 8 US senators, that asks for measures if there will be no de-escalation.
Q: Do you think that now in the US there is a broad, bipartisan opinion that Kosovo’s position is wrong and that the situation should be de-escalated?
A: Yes, I do think there is a consensus on de-escalation. Continuation of the current situation risks worse.
I do not however think that Belgrade and Pristina are equally responsible for the current situation. It originated in the Serb boycott of municipal elections and continued with violent demonstrations against the presence of Kosovo police on Kosovo territory as well as the kidnapping of Kosovo police on Kosovo territory.
Q: Is this an indicator that Kurti should reflect?
A: I’m sure the Prime Minister is aware of American concerns. I’m sure President Vucic is as well, but Washington and Brussels are not sending Belgrade the same strong messages they are sending to Pristina. That is a serious mistake.
Q: How do you see Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s frequent meetings with Brits? For two years he visited Great Britain 3 times and met two times with Foreign Secretary. Without depreciation of it as an alliance, but should Kurti focus more on the alliance with Washington and relations with Brussels, since Kosovo’s aspiration is EU membership?
A: I don’t mind his talking to the Brits. But he should also be thinking about repairing relations with the EU and US.
The Albanian gambit
Q: I want to get your comment also on the idea of Albanian PM Edi Rama for a High-Level conference, in which Kosovo and Serbia leaders will be closed in a meeting and they should not be allowed to get out without an agreement. Do you see it as possible and can it be helpful based on actual circumstances?
A: I might agree with Edi Rama that the problem lies at the top. But I don’t know anyone who could force them into a summit of that sort and keep them there. Besides, Vucic has made clear that it doesn’t matter what he agrees. He is prepared to denounce an agreement as soon as he leaves the meeting. Washington and Brussels don’t even complain when he does that.
I think it is clear there is no agreement right now on “normalization,” much less on mutual recognition. I’d like the top leaders to agree to go back to negotiating agreements on issues that make a difference to their peoples’ lives. Those negotiations before 2013 were far more successful (though some remain unimplemented) than the negotiations since 2013.
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Stevenson’s army, June 28
– NYT says Russian general knew of mutiny in advance [Either that’s true or a good way to sow dissent in Kremlin]
– CNN says US didn’t tell most allies about Wagner plans
– Putin admits Russia funded Wagner
– Economist reports how Wagner shot down Russian aircraft
– NYT says US public opinion limits thaw with China
– POGO report on US shipbuilding problems
Charlie later added this Wednesday bonus:
– Politico’s Global Insider has more on various Russian private armies.
– WSJ says Prigozhin hoped to capture senior generals.
– Elliot Ackerman sees a weakened Russian force.
– David Frum worries about GOP calls for attacks in Mexico.
– Stimson analyst sees no real US consensus on China
– SAIS grad explains why US hasn’t ratified Law of the Sea convention
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 27
– The Supreme Court has rejected the independent legislature legal theory
– Japan lifts trade restrictions with South Korea.
– Congress sets limits on ChatGBT use.
Prigozhin: CJR backgrounds his media coverage; Eliot Cohen analyzes the mutiny.
Reuters discovers large number of US officials whose ancestors had slaves.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 26
– Nothing from the three main figures in the Wagner mutiny, so let the pundits talk, as in Politico.
– Pro-Russian may win in Slovakia.
– US public still supports Ukraine, Taiwan.
– WaPo notes the Senate isn’t doing much.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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