Sudan’s two referenda–in the South and in Abyei–on January 9 are in the Rift Valley Institute’s words “the most critical events in the contemporary history of Sudan.”
Get ready for a rough ride as Southern Sudan looks to independence without having settled the many issues that threaten to disrupt the process laid out five years ago in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. No better primer than this one:
Scott Atran may think even the Haqqani network can be turned against al Qaeda, but Jeffrey Kressler over at the Institute for the Study of War does not (http://www.understandingwar.org/otherwork/afghan-insurgent-group-will-not-negotiate-atlantic). His in-depth piece on the Haqqani network is worth a gander:
The Baghdad rumor mill today is putting the Kurds in Maliki’s camp, which would put him over the top arithmetically. He would still need to harvest a few Iraqiyya votes for appearances’ sake, but that shouldn’t be impossible, and it might not take long.
This is not good news for Washington, which preferred a government built on a Maliki/Allawi foundation. The one that seems to be emerging is built on a Maliki/Sadrist foundation, which is likely to be friendlier to Tehran and less able to keep disgruntled Sunnis inside the political process.
But it’s not over until the scruffily bearded guy sings. Is this just one more turn in the eight-month process, or is this the finale?
His piece on contractors is first-rate: http://www.ndu.edu/inss/news.cfm?action=view&id=52
Our friends at the Washington Institute are certainly sounding worried about Iraq: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3262
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University invites you to a Forum:
“What Are America’s Real Commitments in Afghanistan?”
Minister Ali A. Jalali, Distinguished Professor, Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA), National Defense University, Washington, DC; Interior Minister of Afghanistan (Jan. 2003-Sept. 2005)
Wednesday, October 27, 5-7 p.m.
Rome Auditorium, 1st Fl., Rome Building
SAIS, Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20036
While U.S. politicians debate America’s CHOICES in Afghanistan, it is worth asking what COMMITMENTS, if any, has the U.S. entered into? Part of the answer lies with the “Afghan Compact”, a five-year agreement between international partners and Afghanistan launched by the Government of Afghanistan at the London Conference, Jan 31-Feb 1, 2006. The compact formalized commitments to Afghanistan and stipulated its key areas of activity. The U.S. reconfirmed its commitment to the compact in November, 2009. Additionally, a shared, international commitment to Afghanistan was declared at the Paris Conference in 2008.
Speaker at this Forum, Minister Ali Jalali, former Minister of Internal Affairs of Afghanistan, has written extensively on Afghan military affairs and on civil development. Earlier he served as colonel in the Afghan Army and was a top military planner with Afghan Resistance after the 1979 Soviet invasion.
To register, please send an email with your name and affiliation to SAISCACIForums@jhu.edu, latest by 10 a.m. on the morning of the event. Space at this event may be limited and registration is mandatory. The Forum opens with a reception and refreshments at 5 p.m. The program will begin promptly at 5:30 p.m. and conclude at 7 p.m. With inquiries please call 202-663-7723.