Delusions don’t make reality
Wow! The roads in north of #Kosovo are blocked with the trucks donated from EU-funded projects.
In an appearance at the Atlantic Council early last week, State Department Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Balkans said:
Any intelligent observer or analyst will recognize that Russia will not be a credible partner, that Putin will not be a respected figure in the world. So that betting on that relationship is a losing bet. I think you are seeing at least some very intelligent people pivot away from that relationship. Now that’s not to say that Russia isn’t working very desperately to keep some of the players in the Western Balkans within their orbit, but it’s really economically, politically, and geographically they are in a losing battle.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-western-balkans-euro-atlantic-future/
He isn’t entirely wrong
He is of course correct that the EU is a far better bet than Russia in the long term. For good reasons Albania, Kosovo, and Macedonia have definitively chosen Brussels over Moscow. Albania and Macedonia are slated to begin accession negotiations with the EU. Despite the dim immediate prospects, Kosovo intends to submit its application for membership before the end of the year. Tirana, Skopje, and Pristina have made their ambitions clear. In all three, most of the opposition as well as the governing parties support EU accession. There is more likelihood of EU reluctance to enlarge than reluctance to join in these three prospective members.
But the situation is not good elsewhere
The situation differs however in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Serbia. I’m not seeing so many “very intelligent people” there pivoting away from Russia. In Bosnia, the de facto boss of half the country, Milorad Dodik, is a corrupt Russian asset. Croatia, already an EU member, is cozying up to Moscow, which supports its ethnic nationalist aims inside Bosnia. The result is a de facto alliance with Dodik that makes a mockery of Bosnia’s NATO and EU prospects. Montenegro, a NATO member, has a pro-Russian Prime Minister and governing coalition. They bend easily to Belgrade’s preferences, including recently in treatment of the Serb Orthodox Church.
Most important: Serbia has moved definitively in the Russian direction, even during the Ukraine war. Just to cite last week’s events, Serbia refused again to align with EU sanctions on Russia, its leadership denounced Kosovo’s Albanian leaders and Serbs willing to participate in its government in racist and scatalogical terms, and Belgrade’s minions trashed an office responsible for holding municipal elections in the Serb-majority part of the Kosovo. It is now the scene of a risky stand-off between Serbia’s gangster allies and the Kosovo special police forces. President Vucic has demanded that Serbian troops return to Kosovo. That would trigger serious violence. Vucic’s friends in Moscow are pleased.
The US needs to get real
American diplomacy has been betting on Belgrade making a definitive choice in favor of liberal democracy and the West. That isn’t happening. Serbia’s main opposition and most of its population are not pro-EU and certainly not America-friendly. They far prefer Russia and China, in the guise of a “neutral” stance. President Vucic hedges, on most days skillfully.
A large lithium deposit in Serbia is the latest prize he is toying with. In January the Serbian government cancelled the Rio Tinto licenses to develop it. He is now trying to entice the Chinese to take over, despite European protestations. Deals with Russia and China come without transparency, allowing lots of skimming. Serbian “neutrality” has a definitively corrupt and authoritarian bent.
As does Serbia. Freedom House now ranks it “partly free” (five years ago it was “free”). Belgrade has been slipping in a more autocratic direction throughout President Vucic’s presidency. There is limited political opposition. Media are government friendly and use hate speech on a daily basis (mainly against Kosovo Albanians). Courts are not independent. The government has a strong hand in the economy. The political opposition is hamstrung and risible, even if the intellectual opposition is courageous and serious.
Getting real
The Americans have not adjusted their policy to take into consideration the current reality: Serbia is lost to the West for now. Belgrade is not really pursuing EU membership, which Vucic regards as too far off to compensate for the power he would need to give up to meet its requirements. Instead he is pursuing the “Serbian world,” an effort to bring under Belgrade’s control the Serb populations in neighboring countries. He has succeeded at this in Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. None of these countries will be able to pursue their EU dreams so long as Belgrade uses their Serb citizens to make them dysfunctional states.
The Americans need to get real. That means returning to a policy that energetically supports the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and state functionality of Serbia’s neighbors. Today’s Serbia threatens those goals. Placating Belgrade will get the Americans nothing. Delusions don’t make reality.
With best wishes for a quick recovery to State Department Counselor Derek Chollet, who has had to postpone a trip to the Balkans this week because of a COVID infection,
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 12
– RollCall sees movement toward a spending deal.-
– WaPO says Japan is moving toward a defense buildup.
– WSJ says US forces are helping Niger against Islamists.
– WSJ says CIA is falling short on Open Source Intelligence
– Vox sees a new, stronger Chinese-Saudi alliance.
-WaPo op-ed says Republicans and Democrats misperceive each others’ views.
Here’s the cited report.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 11
I posted yesterday’s as today’s (now corrected). Apologies. This is today’s:
– WSJ says US faces new era of hostage diplomacy.
– NYT sees US political divisions over hostages.
– Air Force/DOD dispute over drones.
– Warsaw & Berlin dispute over Patriot missiles.
– US disputes WTO decision on steel tariffs.
– US public support for Ukraine lessens.
– WSJ reports increased Iranian support for Russia.
– Ukraine has a landmine problem.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 10
This is closer to the truth than any of us like to admit:
– WaPo explains by Sen. Sinema party change won’t change the Senate.
– WaPo describes latest US military activities in Somalia.
– WSJ suggests a Ukraine win over Russia may be too costly.
– NYT reports what’s happening in Moldova.
– Jamelle Bouie says Supreme Court is grabbing power with “before judgment” cases.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 9
– Arizona Senator Sinema announced she is switching from Democrat to Independent. She says she won’t attend weekly caucus lunches but expects to keep her committee assignments. This sounds like the arrangement Bernie Sanders and Angus King have, which means there will still be a 51-49 vote for Democrats to organize the Senate.
– Punchbowl has best account of discussions over an omnibus appropriations instead of a year-long CR.
– Some in House GOP foresee multiple ballots for Speaker, first since 1923.
– WSJ says US plans new Magnitsky sanctions on Russia & China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, December 8
– House votes today on NDAA under suspension of the rules –requires 2/3. Senate votes next week.
– Blinken discusses limits on Ukraine weapons.
– NYT explains ChatGPT, while Atlantic says such AI means the end of written essay tests. [OK, let’s do orals.]
-WOTR assesses new digital battlefield.
– Hill lists top lobbyists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
