Quit and change course before you lose
A cold-eyed look at the Gaza war is overdue.
During the atrocious October 7 attack on Israel, Hamas killed as many as 1200 civilians, kidnapped over 200, raped an unknown number, and and committed crimes against humanity.
The Hamas attack did not however threaten the existence of the Israeli state, which struck back quickly. The attack was “existential” in the imagination of some Israelis as well as some Palestinians, but not in its real consequences.
The Israeli attack on Gaza has killed upwards of 23,000 Palestinians, 15,000 or so of them civilians and most presumably women and children. Israel has detained thousands and destroyed about half the built structures in Gaza. The International Criminal Court will decide whether Israeli conduct constitutes genocide.
Israel hasn’t lost, but it hasn’t reached its objectives either
The outcome thus far is obviously not to Israel’s advantage. The Israeli attack aimed to destroy Hamas, which Israel had previously helped to finance and sustain, as a military and governing entity. Israel has also aimed to free the hostages. It has so far fallen short of both goals. Hamas has gained support both in Gaza and the West Bank. Nor have the Israelis achieved their secondary objective of releasing the hostages, upwards of 140 of whom remain in captivity.
It will not be easy for Israel to change course. Prime Minister Netanyahu can remain in power only if the war continues. He is resisting international pressure, including from President Biden, to desist. The end of the war will open a political process certain to hold him responsible for the intelligence and military failures that allowed the Hamas attack to be successful.
Other options
A growing number of Israelis favors prioritizing hostage release over destroying Hamas. This could only be achieved in a negotiated exchange with Hamas (and possibly other Palestinian factions in Gaza) for Palestinians detained in Israel. There is no guarantee however that Hamas can or will deliver all the hostages. Nor do the Israelis want to release all their imprisoned Palestinians, at least some of whom are responsible for killing Israeli Jews.
There is little apparent support in Israel for the course President Biden is proposing. He wants steps towards a Palestinian state that would sweeten the deal for the Palestinian Authority. A reformed PA would take over governing Gaza. Biden believes that would incentivize the Arab Gulf monarchies to finance post-war stabilization and reconstration. It would also allow progress on normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The Israelis and Arabs who would support that course are well-intentioned but relatively few.
Some Israelis want to de-populate Gaza as well as the West Bank, claiming both as Israeli territory. This course would be sure to create a permanent threat to Israeli security in Egyptian Sinai. It would also destabilize Jordan, which would have to receive many of the West Bank Palestinians. Jordan’s pro-Western monarchy is vital to Israeli security. Any alternative would likely be far more radical and supportive of the Palestinians, who already constitute more than 50% of Jordan’s population. So forced displacement would be entirely counter-productive. That however doesn’t mean the Israelis won’t try to do it. The settlers and security forces are pressuring some West Banker Palestinians to leave.
What’s most likely?
At some point, the Israelis are likely to accept a ceasefire and try to negotiate a hostage deal. Two questions arise. Will they do so before the destruction in Gaza becomes unfixable? Will Hamas release the hostages and risk Israel re-starting the war thereafter?
Leverage in a negotiation comes from having an alternative to a negotiated solution. The alternative for Israel is to pursue Hamasees it regards as responsible for October 7 by other than conventional military means. Israel could conduct a campaign of targeted air strikes and assassinations. That is not a bad alternative. Doing it soon would maximize the odds of Gulf financing for PA takeover, stabilization, and reconstruction in Gaza.
The alternative for Hamas is to fight on, risking a war of attrition that it might not be able to sustain even if it does serious damage to Israel and PA credibility. Hamas will try to retain at least the Israeli soldiers it has captured, but getting rid of the civilians would increase sustainability. Keeping pregnant women and children captive and alive is not what most fighters want to be doing.
Bottom line
Both Israel and Hamas need to think about quitting and changing course before they lose. The sooner they do it the better. I’d prefer Biden’s two-state option, but the prisoner exchange is the more likely first step. It will be a difficult negotation and likely an incomplete exchange initially. But if it comes with a ceasefire and enhanced humanitarian relief for Gaza’s civilians, it would be a good thing. Certainly better than mass displacement.
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Stevenson’s army, January 20
– NYT says Israel weighs hostage vs. Hamas goals
– Multiple reports on splits in Israeli cabinet: WSJ; FT ; WaPo
– Biden says 2 state option has various forms
– Fred Kaplan assesses Mideast conflicts
– Russia rejects new arms control talks
– Guardian assesses European political movements
– WaPo assesses new North Korean actions.
– UN report says Sudan RSF is supported by UAE
– ISW assesses long term costs of Ukraine defeat
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 19
There’s other news, but I want to draw your attention to an excellent piece in NYT on what Congress knew about the Manhattan Project to build atomic weapons. It’s detailed, accurate, and includes links to several important documents. Sadly, I don’t see it anywhere on the NYT website, but I knew it existed because I saw it in the printed paper.
Reporter Catie Edmondson shows that at least 7 members of Congress knew key details, including the $800 million initial funding, because Secretary of War Stimson had briefed them. Speaker Sam Rayburn told others “trust me,” and they did. Edmondson doesn’t mention that wartime appropriations bills were lump sum measures, with very few line items, so most details of military spending were known only to a few members. I see this as proof that there was knowledge and accountability, despite the necessary secrecy.
[Be sure to read the Rayburn interview with Forrest Pogue, which has several stories about how Rayburn operated.]
– FP has more details about the Houthi terrorist designation.
– FT says Arab nations have a plan to recognize Israel in return for a Palestinian state
– WSJ assesses Iran’s military capabilities.
– Semafor says some of Speaker Johnson’s problems come because he “talks like a lawyer”
– Lawfare ponders sources of JCS Chairman’s power
– DIA released report on Iranian UAVs in Ukraine
– It now looks as if Speaker Johnson, talking with Trump, wants to prevent a border security bill [so the GOP has the issue] and avoid any votes on Ukraine [where GOP is divided] Unclear how many GOP Senators agree with that strategy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 18
– Pakistan has struck back at Iran.
– US has made special terrorist designation of Houthis. Note the legal nuances.
– New Taiwan leader says he’ll stick to status quo.
– US pressures Israel on Gaza electronics
– WSJ says US plans for Mideast aren’t gathering support
-Kevin Drum says the Fed is doing business differently
– SAIS prof Hal Brands assesses US support for Ukraine
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 17
– WSJ sees divisions in Israeli cabinet
– Iran fired missiles into Iraq and Pakistan.
– Senate overwhelmingly defeated Sanders amendment on Gaza
– North Korea sees South as enemy
– Biden meets congressional leaders about Ukraine
– USA Today has 911 call on Austin, key personal details redacted
– Atlantic Council has special report on Defense Innovation
– Graham Allison says US allies are already planning on a new Trump administration
And on this 61st anniversary of Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell address warning of a “military-industrial complex,” newly discovered documents show it went through over 20 drafts. This article does not mention what I’ve read elsewhere, that an early version referred to a “military-industrial-congressional complex,” but that was changed for political reasons.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What’s the alternative to counterproductive?
Last week, I claimed that Russia, Israel, the EU and US are all pursuing counterproductive policies, respectively in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Balkans. But reasonable people will ask: what’s the alternative? So here I offer some answers.
Russia needs to lose
In Ukraine, it is clear Russia cannot gain more territory with its current force configuation. Putin’s best bet is a negotiation that would leave his forces in place. That would give them time to re-group, re-arm, and reinforce. Rumors circulated at the end of last year that he was looking for such a pause. In the meanwhile, he will use his political allies in Europe and the US to continue to block the respective $55 billion and $50 billion aid packages. That could weaken Ukrainian will and cause Kyiv to cave.
The best bet for the US and EU is to approve those aid packages as quickly as possible. They should also lift any qualitative restrictions on arms exports to Ukraine. The sooner Kyiv gets what it needs to retake all of its territory, including Crimea, the quicker this war will end. There is no evidence that Russia can or will escalate in response. To the contrary, its economy is weakening and Russians are wanting an end to the war.
Israel needs to hold Netanyahu accountable
Israeli policy on Gaza has been misconceived. Before October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu relied on and helped finance Hamas to govern the Palestinians there. That also ensured they could not unite political with those in the West Bank. Now he is relying on continuation of the war to postpone any political reckoning inside Israel. He after all is responsible for the Israel Defense Forces’ lack of preparedness and slowness in response to the October 24 terrorist assault. No one expects him to survive in the prime ministry once the war subsides.
Destroying Hamas’ capability of carrying out another attack does not depend on leveling Gaza or killing tens of thousands of civilians. It will require a concerted effort to hunt the perpetrators. I’d prefer Israel bring them to trial, but the Israelis are more likely just to kill them. That would certainly not constitute anything like mass murder, crimes against humanity, or genocide. A good part of the Arab world would breathe a sigh of relief. The rest of the world might even applaud.
The US and EU need to focus their efforts in the right place
In the Balkans, the US and EU are ignoring what is important and focusing on trivia. They have failed to react effectively to Belgrade’s sponsorship of the September 24 terrorist attack inside northern Kosovo. Washington and Brussels have also failed to respond to Belgrade’s free but unfair and fraudulent elections on December 17. They have allowed, once again, celebration of an illegal, genocide-promoting holiday in Republika Srpska, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia and Herzegvona.
The alternative is to focus on what counts and do it together. Their conclusions about the September 24 attack should be published and “consequences” levied on Belgrade until it turns over the perpetrators to Kosovo for trial. Brussels and Washington should demand a re-run of the fraudulent Belgrade election. Allowing Presdent Vucic impunity is not going to get him to embrace the West. His policy is hedging. Pulling him closer to the West requires that he feel the heat of Western displeasure with his outrageously anti-democratic behavior.
None of these alternatives is beyond the realm of real possibility. But they will require leadership from the Biden administration that has been lacking. Secretary of State Blinken has been rightly preoccupied with avoiding the slippery slope to a wider war in the Middle East. President Biden himself needs to lead the effort to reverse counterproductive policies. Only he can win Congressional approval for the Ukraine aid, end Israel’s massive assault in Gaza, and block Serbia from its anti-democratic course.
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