Tag: Saudi Arabia
Cold comfort is better than none at all
“Above all,” he says (at 18:49), “Iran must face a credible nuclear threat.” This is Prime Minister Netanyahu implicitly acknowledging, whether intentionally or not, Israel’s own nuclear weapons and stating against whom they are targeted. At the same time, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is making it clear that he intends to match Iran’s nuclear capabilities:
Turkish President Erdogan has made a similar pledge.
This raises the disturbing question: are we at the brink of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East? I had a look at this question last spring with two Middle East Institute interns. Our conclusion then was that the situation needs monitoring. I can say a bit more now.
Can a Saudi nuclear capability be blocked?
While it is rarely mentioned in public, an amped-up Saudi non-proliferation commitment is likely a key part of the Biden Administration’s current negotiations with Riyadh for a bilateral security agreement. That wouldn’t be a popular proposition on its own in the U.S. Congress. But if it comes with a Saudi commitment not to develop sensitive nuclear technology (especially enrichment, reprocessing, and weaponization), it might be more attractive on both sides of the aisle. American security relations with both Japan and South Korea, on which the press reports the Administration is modeling a possible agreement with the Kingdom, include de facto commitments not to develop nuclear weapons. West Germany’s entry into NATO included such a commitment as well.
But the US/Saudi negotiations aim primarily at formal normalization of Saudi relations with Israel, for which in exchange the Saudis want concessions to the Palestinians. The Crown Prince is sounding soft on that score. He wants improvement in the life of the Palestinians. Netanyahu is not going to find it easy to get his ultra-nationalist coalition partners to offer even that. Nor is it clear he wants to. A substantial non-proliferation commitment from Saudi Arabia could however sweeten the deal from Netanyahu’s perspective. He won’t want some future, less friendly, Crown Prince to wield nukes.
The Saudis have indicated they intend to upgrade their non-proliferation safeguards agreement with the IAEA. That is a good step in the right direction, but it falls short of the strictest arrangement known as an Additional Protocol. That is where the U.S. should want the Kingdom to arrive.
What about Turkey?
Erdogan already has American nuclear weapons in Turkey. Were he to push for Turkey’s own nukes, those might be withdrawn, as they really don’t serve much military purpose. But Ankara is taking risks these days in many directions, exercising its right to a far more independent foreign policy than in the past:
- Participation with Iran and Russia in managing the conflict in Syria.
- Purchase of Russian air defenses, even if now mothballed due to the American reaction.
- Mediation of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine.
- Opposition to Finland’s and (still) to Sweden’s membership in NATO.
- Support for Azerbaijan’s military operation to take back Nagorno-Karabakh.
It would not be surprising if Erdogan concluded that nuclear weapons would be an appropriate bulwark for this more independent course.
Could Egypt be far behind?
Likely yes, as things stand today. President Sisi has stated that he wants Egypt to be like Germany: a great power without nuclear weapons. Neither Egypt’s economy nor its army are currently in a position to resist American and Israeli pressure against Egypt acquiring nuclear weapons. But if Riyadh and Ankara were to get them, Cairo would want to follow suit. When would then be the question.
Iran sets the pace, but might stop short
Israel’s nuclear weapons, which have existed for more than 50 years, did not ignite an arms race. Iran’s nuclear capabilities, which have been advancing rapidly, could well do so. Israel kept its nuclear program behind a (sometimes thin) veil of secrecy. Iran is unable to hide its progress, as even hindered IAEA inspections provide a good deal of transparency. If Tehran decides to build a nuclear weapons, the world is going to know it, sooner rather than later. Ignoring that development would be difficult for both Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In the Middle East, Iran is the nuclear pace setter.
But Tehran might stop short of full weaponization. Its own national security is the reason. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, the slightest doubt in Israel about whether a missile is being prepared for launch with a nuclear warhead could lead to Armageddon. It would be far wiser for Tehran to make it clear that it has stopped short of weaponization. Being a few weeks from becoming a nuclear power would give Iran most of the benefits of becoming one without all of the risks.
That is cold comfort. But cold comfort is better than none at all.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 22
– To try to avoid a government shutdown, Sen. Schumer plans to take up the FAA re-authorization passed by the House as a vehicle for a CR to fund the government. Using a bill with an HR number avoids any blue slip problems because revenue measures must begin in the House and makes the question in the House whether to accept a Senate version.
– CRS has some good background pieces on how the USG functions in a lapse of appropriations. Some FAQs and some broader background.
– Academics at the old Monkey Cage site have launched a new site, Good Authority.
– Among their good first articles are: Sarah Binder on the Tuberville holds; Andrew Rudalevige on the Schedule F problems; and Michael Tesler on GOP isolationism.
– In 2016 candidate Donald Trump didn’t run a typical campaign, just media. LATimes notes this year his campaign has done the nitty gritty work to get delegates, and it’s working.
– This week I ran across an article from last March profiling Trump’s last, acting SecDef, Chris Miller. While it’s mildly sympathetic, I stand by my low opinion of his performance and his views.
I somehow missed yesterday’s edition:
– Unclear what happens next after confirming 3 Chiefs.
– Same with the budget, though House may use King of he Hill amendment process.
– GOP group opposes Ukraine aid. Here’s their letter.
– GOP also divided over expiring PEPFAR
– FT says India spy agency operates abroad
– WSJ says US wants Israel to support nuclear program for Saudi
– Atlantic has long article on Gen. Milley
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 19
– Politico’s story on the farm bill shows how lobbyists work.-
– National review shows Europe is helping Ukraine.
– NATO members have also been increasing their own defense budgets
– WSJ says Chinese Foreign Minister was fired for having an affair while ambassador to US
– NYT says US wants a security treaty with Saudi Arabia modeled after Japan treaty
– House GOP pretends they have a plan to balance the federal budget
– Meanwhile the House GOP has failed to move either its spending package or the DOD appropriations.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Arab rebellion in eastern Syria
Former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi writes, prompted by the current Arab rebellion against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rule in Deir ez-Zur:
Insincerity has consequences
The way the current US administration deals with the Arab world is controversial and confusing. On the one hand, senior American officials visit Arab countries and confirm the strategic relationship that binds Washington with these countries as well as the need for Iran to stop its policy aimed at instability in the region. Then they give Iran access to more than 10 billion dollars, knowing that part of it will be used against countries that Washington claims to be its allies.
Washington claims that it supports human rights, democracy, and transparency, and then allows its Kurdish Communist allies (PKK) in Syria to use American weapons to bomb Arab civilians who demand justice and trust American values.
Washington should be aware that American policy and actions are being analyzed, studied, and built upon by all countries and peoples. The result is an irreparable loss in credibility and sincerity.
False claims
In Deir ez-Zur, the SDF is trying to attach three accusations to the movement of the Arab tribes:
- SDF claims the Arabs launched their movement for the sake of a militia leader named Abu Khawla, but the truth is that Abu Khawla is the creation of the SDF. No one rebelled because of him, but rather because of the repressive and corrupt practices of the SDF. The Arab clans are the ones who demanded the dismissal of Abu Khawla when the SDF supported him.
- The SDF claims the region supports ISIS, but in fact the Arab clans fought ISIS before the formation of the anti-ISIS coalition and the emergence of the SDF. ISIS has killed thousands of Arab clansmen. The clans themselves have been at the forefront in the fight against ISIS, including under the leadership of the coalition.
- SDF claims the clans cooperate with the regime and the Iranians, but it is the SDF that deals with the regime and says its relations with Iran are good. The people of Deir ez-Zur liberated the region from the regime and have continued to fight it since mid-2012. It is the Arab youth who fight the Iranian militias. The regime has destroyed large parts of the province in retaliation.
The US needs to act
The US government should intervene to solve the problems in Deir ez-Zur. The continuation of the conflict there is not in the interest of anyone except Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime, which is working to fuel it with all the means available. The silence of the Department of Defense and Centcom’s Operation Inherent Resolve will not help.
Steps required from the US side, to help it return to its mission:
- Change all the leaders of the SDF/PKK in the Deir ez-Zur region, because they are the cause of the problems.
- Call for a general meeting of the representatives of the people of the region, including sheikhs, notables, and intellectuals, to listen to the people’s demands directly. The purpose of the meeting would be to find a new administrative, economic, and military mechanism for Al-Deir that meets the demands of the people without interference from the SDF or its cadres.
- Avoid dealing with Arabs the SDF nominates.
- Investigate whether the SDF has used US weapons in the commission of war crimes in Deir ez-Zur.
The Department of State delegation that visited the area last weekend failed to meet any of the real local representatives. The SDF launched a massive attack in the wake of the meeting, which confirms that the mission failed.
The SDF needs to act too
The SDF cannot continue in its current direction. It needs to
- Release Deir ez-Zur people from 21 SDF detention centers.
- Change its media discourse, which constantly accuses the people of Deir ez-Zur people of being criminals, agents, and smugglers.
- Allow International human rights organizations to enter Deir ez-Zur under the protection of US forces to investigate the war crimes.
Deir ez-Zur is a test for the US
The US is currently trying to negotiate a “mega-deal” with Saudi Arabia and Israel that will have to give something to the Palestinians. But the same US Administration has failed to stop SDF/PKK killing of Arabs in Deir ez-Zur. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should test any US offer by asking the US officials to listen to the Arab demands in northeast Syria. He should want to see if the Americans can deliver before moving one step further.
At the end of the day, the US forces will leave Syria and the Kurds and the Arabs will stay. Helping the two indigenous communities to find common ground will pay dividends to the US in the long term.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 30
– We talked in class about how the Constitution gives Congress the power over trade. The Atlantic notes the many ways Congress has abdicated its trade powers with emergency provisions which President Trump notably used.
– Dan Drezner analyzes the chapter on Biden and Afghanistan that I sent around yesterday.
– Thomas Edsall reviews research on small donors to political campaigns.
– New Yorker reviews rise of right-wing violence.
– WSJ says Saudis offer money to Palestinian Authority.
– Given the hurricane threatening Florida, remember that CRS has background reports on issues like FEMA assistance.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, August 25
-WaPo has maps showing impact of the Tuberville hold on 301 military nominations.
– WSJ says Chinese may help Saudi nuclear plant
– Military Times has quotes on foreign policy from GOP “debate”
– Defense One highlights State office that handles Ukraine aid.
– Lawfare has summary of recent events in the Pacific region.
I’ve long believed that “some people die only in the Times” — that NYT runs obituaries on little known but deeply significant people. Today, it tells about the man who invented the PDF format.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
