Tag: Turkey
A Biden Middle East doctrine full of holes
Brett McGurk, the senior White House Middle East official, last month set out a “Biden doctrine” for the region. It is based on partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, integration, and values. Best you read it yourself. It is blessedly short and clear.
Jonathan Lord, formerly Iraq director at the Defense Department and now at the Center for New American Security, has taken Brett to task for ignoring both Syria and Iraq, where the US still has a few thousand troops doing counter-terrorism work. In fact, McGurk never mentions terrorism, the threat on which he worked for many years.
What else isn’t mentioned
Those are glaring omissions, but not the only ones. As Lord notes, McGurk says little about economic issues. He omits oil entirely, though he mentions freedom of navigation. It is hard to imagine the US would be concerned with the Middle East if there were no oil there. He fails to note the growing geopolitical competition in the region with Russia and China. Brett ignores the more than 18,000 deployed US troops in Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
He forgets the Palestinians entirely, as well as the Kurds, with whom the US is allied in Syria. There is not a word about the disastrous state of Lebanon and Hizbollah’s role there, though he boasts about Beirut’s maritime boundary agreement with Israel. He ignores the plight of women in much of the region.
McGurk also fails to note the contradictions among his five principles. He acknowledges the main tension between values and partnerships with autocrats. But he ignores the current and growing tensions on human rights issues with Israel, as well as the more traditional ones with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. What do the five principles tell us to do about the UAE and possibly Saudi Arabia reestablishing diplomatic relations with Syria? There are also problems reconciling diplomacy and deterrence. The US has essentially abandoned the former for the latter when it comes to Iran. And there are obstacles to integration arising from human rights, like the Saudi refusal to recognize Israel without real progress on creating a Palestinian state.
Iran, Iran, Iran
Brett is clever. I imagine he would reply to this critique that it is about time we had a Middle East policy focused on partnerships rather than oil, the Palestinians, or competition with Russia and China. He might also claim that it is obvious US troops are in the Middle East for deterrence purposes, against both terrorism and Iran. He would be correct to say that any discussion of economic and social issues requires more time and space than this short presentation allowed.
But there is no excuse for many of the other omissions. They reflect prioritization, not ignorance. Brett knows the the current Israeli government is a threat to its already ethnically-limited democracy. He knows Iraq is drifting away from the US, Syria is a drug-exporting nightmare, and Lebanon is in a downward spiral. The Biden Administration has simply decided to ignore these developments and focus on whatever will help the US confront Iran. That is the real purpose of four of the five principles: partnerships, deterrence, diplomacy, and integration. Values play a distinctly secondary role.
If that’s what it’s about, say so
Iran’s role in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and with Hizbollah more than justifies priority treatment. Moreover Tehran’s increasingly successful nuclear program could ignite an arms race in the region. Turkey’s President Erdogan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have explicitly stated they will not stand idly by if Iran gets nuclear weapons. That could put the US in an awkward situation, as it would increase the need for security guarantees and make criticism of human rights behavior impossible.
If it’s all about Iran, say so. Don’t hide it behind five nice principles. Then we can debate whether you’ve got the priorities right.
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Earthquakes and balloons need diplomacy
The earthquakes that have devastated parts of southern Turkey and northern Syria have already killed upwards of 25,000 people and made millions homeless. The spy balloons the US has been shooting down represent a far less immediate threat to human welfare. But it is the latter, not the former, that are attracting the most attention in Washington.
The balloons
The balloons are certainly not extraterrestrial. We know enough about other planets and moons in our own solar system to be sure there are no civilizatiions nearby capable of deploying them. Other solar systems are too far away to transport objects to ours, unless they possess technology far more advanced than our own. They wouldn’t be using balloons if that is the case.
So the balloons come from another country, most likely China. Whatever its purposes, if Beijing is the originator it has certainly managed to unite Washington as an adversary. It is difficult to picture that the data the balloons gather are worth the price. China’s satellites and its spies in the US should be capable of similar data collection, though perhaps at a higher price. Why would China, which is swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary?
Beijing now claims Washington has been using balloons to spy over China. I suppose that is possible, though the same question arises. Why would Washington, even not swimming in money, worry about the price of spying on its main adversary? If it has used balloons, where are the Chinese photos to demonstrate it?
The earthquakes
The earthquakes pose a far less immediate threat to Americans, but they are nevertheless worthy of far more attention than they are getting. They will certainly kill over the next several months many more people, as cold weather, collapsing buildings, and limited medical, food, and water supplies take their toll.
The failure of international assistance to reach northern Syria in a timely way is particularly troubling. Damascus is blaming Hayat Tahrir al Sham, an extremist Islamist group. But it is likely we won’t know the true story for some time to come. Certainly Damascus has no interest in seeing relief reach the millions of oppositionists it has herded into the northwest corner of Syria.
It is impossible to predict the broader consequences of the earthquakes and the inadequate response to them. Turkish President Erdogan faces an election in May. Syrian President Bashar al Assad does not have that problem, as even at the next election in 2028 he is unlikely to allow serious competition if he still remains in power. But both countries already face serious economic problems that the earthquakes are likely to exacerbate.
Consequences
The results are unlikely to be salubrious. The US/China rivalry was already getting overheated. It would be a mistake to allow concern over balloons make it much worse. What is needed now is a return to President Biden’s normal mode of operation: less drama, more diplomacy. It shouldn’t be hard to convince Beijing that the balloons are counterproductive if it wants to maintain some equilibrium in its relations with the US.
As for earthquake relief, the issue is more complicated. Turkey appears to be getting the help it needs and distributing it fairly. Syria however is taking all it can from the UN but distributing virtually none of it to the opposition population that inhabits part of the country’s northwest. There is no reason to believe it will change that habit. Only an aggressive cross-border relief operation from Turkey can avoid a major humanitarian disaster. The UN needs to find the courage to act, which is impossible when Russia and perhaps China oppose doing so in the Security Council.
So here, too, diplomacy may be part of the solution, but so far quiet diplomacy has not worked. Maybe more drama is needed to deal with Syria.
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Stevenson’s army, February 13
– FT reports German government is deeply divided over whether to create an NSC.
– NYT says Erdogan gave amnesty in 2019 for building code violations.
– WSJ says China now says US sent balloons through its airspace.
– NYT has maps on possible offensives in Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– Politico says administration is preparing defense budget bigger than this year.
– WSJ reports Moldova government collapse.
– WSJ says quake recovery is hurting Erdogan politically.
– Poll has new insights into extremists.
– AEI’s Kori Schake calls Biden foreign policy a “mess”
– RAND analysts lists Russian mistakes in Ukraine.
– RollCall notes how committees chairs bought votes.
– I mention tick-tock stories a lot. WSJ’s Ben Zimmer has derivation.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 3
– US agreement with Philippines is a big deal.
– Meanwhile, NYT says China is gaining in Indonesia.
– US intelligence doubts Ukraine gain in Crimea.
– Russia may expand attacks.
– India boosts defense spending 13%.
– Senators want to block F16s to Turkey.
– In FP, Rand analysts discuss lessons from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
– Budget hawk think tank CRFB, whose online game we use in class to help you understand what’s in the US budget, has a new report on balancing the budget. NYT’s Paul Krugman says we don’t have to worry so much about the debt.
– FP says Iraq’s leader is tilting toward US.
– RollCall says the number of competitive House seats has fluctuated within a range, not shrunk dramatically.
– AP has historical background on presidential handling of classified records.
IISS has analysis of Japan’s new defense strategy.
– Politico notes the dubiousness of Santos’ $199 expenses.
Charlie also posted this yesterday:
Several news reports, including this first one by WSJ, say Ukraine will be receiving armored vehicles that many call “tanks.” Stars & Stripes notes that many dispute what a tank is. As many of you probably know, Churchill was the spearhead for tank development and gave it that name as a secrecy measure.
-Big corruption scandal in Ukraine.
-It sure looks as if Turkey will block Sweden’s admission to NATO.
-US will greatly expand artillery production.
– WaPo reviews SecState Pompeo’s new book, calling it “savage.”
– Ron Brownstein expects more redistricting to help GOP in next 2 years.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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