Tag: United Nations

Stevenson’s army, October 14

– NYT has important background on interagency debates before new order on Chinese tech.

– NYT also has details on US-Saudi pissing match.

UNGA votes against Russia.

– Axios has background on French West Africa policy.

– Military Times quotes conservatives arguing recruiting shortfalls are because the armed forces are too “woke.”

– US is punishing countries with child soldiers after waiving that sanction for years.

– NYT has short piece on subpoenaing former presidents, citing this CRS study.

– WaPo has details on the finally reopening Air & Space Museum.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 7

– GOP promises China focus if they control House.

China blocks UN criticism of its human rights policies.

– Josh Rogin wants limits on lobbying by foreign dictators.

– WaPo says US intelligence reported direct criticism of Putin.

– NYT reports abuses by Mexican military.

– Axios reports anarchy in Haiti.

– CNN reports criticism of Havana syndrome investigations.

– CNN notes infrastructure bill opponents who now want the money.

– Why would a sitting US Senator want to quit to be a university president?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, sometimes adding videos. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 5

– Two civ-mil analysts use cases to explain why civilians defer to military advice.-

– Foreign policy analysts warn against declaring Russia a terrorist supporting state.

– A retired  colonel says our 4 star officers need replacement.

– A retired Marine colonel says cable news shows should be banned on military bases.

-A Carnegie analyst says bad relations between Germany and Poland are hurting Ukraine.

– BBC notes criticism of Russian military by Russians.

– WSJ says Russia is using Iranian drones very effectively.

– Fred Kaplan says Musk’s “peace plan” won’t work now.

Then Charlie added:

Why wait? These are interesting.

US & Europe are trying to get an anti-Russia vote in the UN General Assembly.

Erdogan might be getting ready for war with Greece.

FP says US is cracking down on Paraguay.

CRS says NDAA may contain provisions on cyber personnel.

National Security Archive touts its document file on Cuban missile crisis.

And I was wrong in class about PAYGO. It’s still on the books, has been routinely cancelled each year, but this fall faces a $100 billion automatic sequester unless Congress agrees to cancel it again.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, July 12

– The House takes up the NDAA this week, with over 1200 amendments filed.

– GOP resists Democratic proposals for increased aid to UN to counter China.

– Big LDP win foreshadows revisions to Japan’s constitution.

– US says Iran is shipping drones to Russia.

Putin goes to Tehran for meetings including Turkey.

– WSJ says US is working to reform WTO.

– WaPo says ISIS planned attacks in Western Europe.

– NYT sees Ukraine war turning into test of stamina.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Prospects for real peace in Syria: not good

The sixth pledging Conference for the Future of Syria and the Region met in Brussels yesterday and today. On the margins, Baytna, a Syrian organization committed to empowering civil society, hosted a discussion (Peace in Syria: possibility or fantasy?) assessing the prospects for a real, sustainable peace. Not good, in two words.

Justice and accountability

The UN Commission of Inquiry and its Independent, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IMMM) as well as the use of universal jurisdiction to prosecute war criminals in Germany are important tools. But they have not produced substantial results. Only a few political prisoners have been freed, out of well over 100,000. So far the accused are a few small fry. There will be a great deal more to do once the opportunity arises.

A political transition is vital. Justice goes beyond accountability, especially for women. A broader framework of rule of law and security is needed.

Failure to hold people accountable in Syria has encouraged Russian abuses in Ukraine. Impunity for Bashar al Asad has taught others that they can escape accountability.

The economy

The situation today is disastrous. The overwhelming majority of Syrians are poor and in need of assistance. That is partly due to international sanctions. Once real peace arrives, a strong central authority will still be needed to manage the economy. When the time comes for lifting of sanctions, the international community needs a plan to do it expeditiously. [I missed some of the presentation on the economy, so apologies for that].

Rights and government

Syria needs radical political decentralization. The constitution should limit the powers of the presidency. Elected local authorities should control education and some taxation authority. The government needs to respect the social, cultural, and political rights of minorities. We can learn from the recent constitution in Tunisia, which instituted decentralization as a principle of the state. The existing provisions for decentralization in Syria are not adequate.

Social cohesion and peacebuilding

Local actors are key. They have a deep understanding of how things really work at the community level. We need to understand their political and social agendas and respond to their context and priorities. Funding should be flexible and accessible, aimed at strengthening civil society organizations that set their own priorities, regardless of who the local authorities are. We should not create or impose risks on Syrians trying to meet local community needs.

On the pathway to peace, an audience member suggested Syrian representation is an issue. It is not enough just to exclude those “who have blood on their hands.” Inclusiveness has hampered negotiations. The course of the war in Ukraine suggests helping Syrians to defend themselves might help. Only the Syrian people will be able to remove the regime and rebuild civil society. It’s a long road. We need to invest in people inside Syria who will make a difference.

As my Arabic is miserable, I missed most of the discussion. But the bottom line was clear enough: prospects for real peace in Syria in the short run are not good.

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Recognition can weaken Serbia’s leverage

Edward Joseph, a Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, writes:

It’s the Newtonian law of policy debate: every idea that challenges orthodoxy produces an equal and opposite reaction.

We, the co-authors of the recent SAIS-Wilson Center report, ‘From Crisis to Convergence: A Strategy to Tackle Instability at its Source’, welcome debate on our approach, which has generated at least 16 articles, interviews and two controversies, along with interest in key capitals.  At the very least, it represents an original way of thinking about a region where the West has struggled for too long, despite holding the strategic advantage.

We will host a live critique of our recent SAIS-Wilson Center report – along with an assessment of just how bad the situation in the Balkans is — on-line this Tuesday, 15 February at 9:30AM ET.  Sign up here

This event will feature leading experts from: Bosnia-Herzegovina – Srecko Latal (Balkans Crossroads); Kosovo — Engjellushe Morina (ECFR); Serbia – Igor Bandovic (BCSP); Albania – Albert Rakipi (AIIS.)  They will explore: ‘Balkans 2022: How Bad Can It Get? Is a Breakthrough Possible?’

The report’s co-authors — who hail from the countries most affected by the strategy, including two respected experts from Serbia and Kosovo – will respond. 

One of the more thoughtful critiques of our report appeared in Dan Serwer’s Peacefare post of 19 January.  To summarize, Dan supports convergence by the European states that don’t recognize Kosovo, and, critically, he acknowledges the threat from “Serbian irredentism” in the Balkans.  Dan then questions the impact of convergence – even NATO membership for Kosovo – on Belgrade’s policies.  Instead of altering Serbia’s “strategic calculus,” as we state, Dan believes it will “incentivize Serbia in the opposite direction.”

Anti-democratic Serbia is the problem

Dan’s post raises essential and under-examined questions: what drives Serbia’s posture in the Balkans?  Why does only Serbia (and its proxies) reject the liberal Western order for the region?

Let me begin with a challenge to Peacefare readers:

How do you explain that more than three-decades after the violent dissolution of Yugoslavia began, the region is not just stagnant – but going backwards, with open talk of “war” from responsible international and regional figures alike?  Bear in mind that, unlike in Ukraine, the US, NATO and EU hold the strategic advantage in the Balkans.

We give our answer in the report.  The Balkans is not a ‘morass’ of intractable ethno-national tensions.  Instead, those ethno-national tensions – which stand in the way of the fight against corruption and the fight for rule of law and democracy – are a function of two factors: national power and strategic orientation.

And that’s the crux of the problem: the largest Western Balkans state – Serbia – has polities in four neighboring states, and is oriented towards the illiberal powers: Russia and China.  In power for a decade, the Vucic regime has methodically rolled back Serbia’s weak democracy.  The regime is protected within the EU by the leading European illiberal power: Hungary.

In sum, no matter how many Special Envoys are sent to Bosnia-Herzegovina, for example, fundamental reform will remain out of reach as long as this condition in Serbia continues.  To put it another way, don’t expect democratic progress in BiH or its neighbors, with an anti-democratic Serbia.

Serbia’s leverage

But that only addresses Serbia’s strategic orientation. Where does the Vucic regime get the power to subvert its neighbors – and confound US and EU diplomats?  Why do capable, dedicated US officials assail corruption and organized crime in Bosnia, Albania, and Kosovo – but are generally quiet on official corruption in Serbia?  Why do US officials in Serbia repeatedly laud a regime that openly – on billboards – promotes Beijing, and backs Moscow over Ukraine as, “the political and economic leader” in the region?  Why was Serbia invited to the ‘Summit for Democracy’ after US officials stated clearly that it would not be invited?  Why did the EU give Serbia a pass on rule of law standards? 

The source of the leverage

We believe the answer is clear: Serbia has leverage over Kosovo, and through it, over the US and EU.  The source of that leverage is the four NATO non-recognizers.  The best way to understand Serbian leverage is by comparison with Bulgaria and North Macedonia.  As an EU member, Sofia can unilaterally block the opening of Skopje’s EU accession negotiations.  Similarly, Belgrade can unilaterally block Pristina’s pathway to NATO and the EU – even though it’s not a member of either organization.  The reason: the non-recognizers have, effectively, handed their proxy to Belgrade: ‘we won’t recognize Kosovo, until Serbia does.’

Kosovo cannot advance until Belgrade, with the proxy of the non-recognizers, says so.  The status quo – no settlement between Pristina and Belgrade – inflicts pain on only one side.  Indeed, the status quo is beneficial for the Vucic regime as it insulates it from Western scrutiny.

In short, the West is participating in Vucic’s charade.  Belgrade’s main aim in the EU-led Dialogue is simply to avoid being blamed for lack of progress, so that the Vucic regime can continue the pretense of interest in making EU reforms and becoming a member.  Meanwhile, the regime draws Western praise, even as Vucic – through others – promotes what they call the ‘Serb World.’ 

The way forward

The way forward is also clear: Western strategy should focus on eroding Serbia’s leverage, reducing the illiberal Vucic regime’s ability to project its destructive vision in the region and domestically.  Rather than “incentivizing Serbia in the wrong direction,” we see precisely the opposite: reducing regime power incentivizes it to scale back its destructive aspirations and cooperate.  In other words, this is about power dynamics, not incentives.  EU membership has incentives ample enough to attract Serbia’s neighbors, Albania and North Macedonia.  Tirana and Skopje are desperate simply to have the same right that Belgrade already enjoys and exploits.

Eroding Serbian leverage is not a binary event, i.e. either full recognition by the four NATO non-recognizers, or nothing.  Instead, we see Belgrade’s obsessive bid to isolate and weaken Kosovo – evidenced in its own words and actions – as proof of its vulnerability.  That’s why senior Serbian officials run nervously to Greece and Spain to shore up – as officials openly state – non-recognition of Kosovo.  That explains why at a time of grave European crisis, Serbian Foreign Minister Nikola Selakovic last week visited – of all places – Equatorial Guinea! – praising the country for not recognizing Kosovo.  Same with the visits to dangerous countries like Iran and obscure ones like Suriname – all mainly in the name of isolating Kosovo.

Our strategy

Our strategy is entirely pragmatic.  Steps towards ‘convergence’ beginning, for example, with returning Slovak and Spanish troops to KFOR, bringing Kosovo into NATO’s Partnership for Peace, aided by continuing movement from Greece, and steps by Romania as well, will have immediate impact on the regime’s posture.  Greece’s role is particularly significant because Athens has its own clearly stated strategic reasons for moving toward recognition of Kosovo.

The Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council are no match in this regard.  A pathway to NATO membership is far more meaningful for Kosovo than UN membership. 

Let’s finally bring the curtain down on the three-decade crisis over Yugoslavia, where it began – in Kosovo.  Convergence is the way.  Most current approaches, including the fight against corruption, and building a regional common market, continue under convergence — empowered by a US and EU that can finally apply the same standards across the region.  Join us on Tuesday to hear how experts from the region process this argument!

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