Security in ungoverned spaces

Posted in Uncategorized - October 2, 2012 - 0 Comment

Earlier this year I enjoyed a day talking about North Africa, including the Sahel, an area that is now attracting more attention than is healthy for its inhabitants.  The focus is largely military.  I did not publish my presentation, as it was available only in barebones form.  It still however seems germane and some of you may find it useful.  So here is the outline of what I said at an undisclosed location:

 Security in Ungoverned Spaces:  Options

0. Doing nothing is an option

  • No international airports
  • Threat is mostly local
  • Going after it can make it worse

1.  Conventional and unconventional military means

  • Yemen analogy:  local conventional forces trained and equipped by U.S. with U.S. drones and special forces acting more or less in coordination
  • Can kill, can’t govern:  leaves vacuum as at Zinjibar, filled by Ansar al Sharia, problems of compensation, may create more terrorists than it kills
  • Creates moral hazard with government, which has to keep terrorism alive to get aid
  • Also gives regime trained and equipped units with which to protect itself
  • Risks use of U.S. assets against regime enemies, false intelligence
  • Mistakes increase local support for terrorists

2.  Policing

  • No evidence uniformed police would be well received in remote communities
  • Corruption rife
  • Less than 50 per cent trust in Algeria:  what might it be in Sahel?
  • Detention facilities a big problem:  no point in arresting them if you have no decent place to put them

3.  Community/tribal approaches

  • Difficult to know who is who, what is what
  • Same moral hazard in a different direction (tribal chiefs)
  • Rented, not bought?
  • Provide justice?

4.  Development assistance

  • Youth bulge, unemployment are the real problems
  • Need jobs, especially agriculture
  • Income not rising with expectations
  • Per capita PPP 2011:  Algeria 7200 Morocco 5100
  • Undernourishment, poverty, especially farther south
  • Role of women can be supported

5.    Negotiated settlements:  precedents, good and bad, in Iraq, Afghanistan

6.    Regional cooperation in one or more of the above areas:  ECOWAS, African Union

7.    Caveat:  beware too much security, too little rule of law

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