peacefare.net

So far so good

Free Libya seems to me headed in the right direction.  It could still be diverted, in particular if Qaddafi manages to raise an insurgency or if the revolutionary militias fall out with each other and begin internecine fighting.  But the National Transitional Council (NTC seems to have won the battle with TNC) has legitimacy in the eyes of every Libyan I’ve talked with.  They like the roadmap to elections and the constitution the NTC has laid out, they like what they regard as its uncorrupted leadership, and they have confidence that things will improve because of Libya’s vast oil and gas resources.

I’ve never been in a post-war situation with as much unanimity and solidarity on main issues as here.  You can see it literally painted all over both Benghazi and Tripoli–the pre-Qaddafi (royalist) flag that symbolizes, Libyans tell me, independence (not the monarchy that flew it originally).  Their anthem, they say, is not a “national” anthem but an “independence” anthem (they’ve of course ditched Qaddafi’s and brought back the royal one).  I bought a flag in Benghazi’s Court House square, to join the excessive number of symbols of freedom that decorate my office at Johns Hopkins/SAIS.  It would be hard to leave Libya without it.

The sense of solidarity and unanimity extends to Tripoli, though it certainly does not entirely fill the vast expanse between the two cities.  There is still fighting at Sirte, Bani Walid and other places where Qaddafi’s loyalists are holding out.  There is a question whether the NTC can reach out and extend its big tent approach to those who live in central Libya, but they have certainly engaged Tripoli, at least for now.

I spent a few quality hours at the Defense Ministry in Benghazi, where I found a number of professionals engaged seriously with less than glorious challenges.  They believe Qaddafi’s forces have strewn 15,000 mines across the countryside.  The preferred method for finding them in sand for the moment is with your hands, though there are some higher-tech approaches whose export to Libya is still prohibited by the UN arms embargo.  I hope the UN fixed that in the Security Council resolution that passed yesterday.

The Defense Ministry is also concerned about its expeditionary medical capacity, which is close to zero.  They haven’t got field hospitals or the logistical capacity to support them.

These are not the kinds of problems that I usually worry about, but I was glad to hear that others do worry about them.  “Uniform” may be a euphemism at the Defense Ministry–everyone seems to wear whatever BDUs (battle dress uniform, or “camouflage” as the civilians say) come to hand, as well as the uniforms of Qaddafi’s army.  There is no saluting and no formality, even in the anteroom to the minister’s office.  But there is a sense of professional purpose and seriousness, as well as a good deal of camaraderie.  These folks know each other, have fought a war together, and are now trying to sort out the thousand things that got left behind.  But how much the Defense Ministry is linked to the militias guarding street corners in Tripoli is not clear.

The challenge is to unify Libya’s many former rebel forces before they start serious jockeying for territory and power, demobilizing at least some of them and getting others to return to the rougher places from which they came.  It will not be easy.  Life in Tripoli may look pretty good to someone from the Nafusa Mountains.

Elementary school opens today in Libya.  Universities next month.  The police are on the streets.  The garbage collectors are out with reflective vests, even if their efforts still seem spotty.  I talked to a former Mercedes manager today.  He says people are still not taking their fancy cars out of the garage.  But traffic is heavy.  Friday nights’s exuberant demonstration, well attended by women and children, is still ringing in my ears.

Libyans are feeling proud, even giddy with their refurbished identity, which they trust will be more welcome in the rest of the world than the previous one.  Fears of an east/west split in the country have so far not materialized.  Qaddafi may still be at large, but no one is expecting him back except to be tried (and they expect executed).  So far so good, even if big challenges lie ahead.