Qadhafi bets all or nothing

Libya, a country with no constitution and officially no chief of state, is turning into the next test for popular revolution in the Middle East/North Africa. De facto autocrat Muammar Qadhafi is using military force and foreign troops (believed to be mostly from Chad) to try to repress popular rebellion, which is strongest in the eastern city of Benghazi.

An oil rentier state that depends on petroleum for 80% of its government revenue, Qadhafi enters the fray with a sterling survival record:  he has ruled since a military coup in 1969, despite supporting terrorism and rebellion abroad in the 1970s and 1980s, the downing of Pan Am 103 by a Libyan agent in 1992, his decision to give up terrorism and the pursuit of nuclear weapons in 2003, and an extraordinary number of more bizarre incidents in between.  Here he is giving one of many over the top speeches:

Can this strange man get away with turning off the internet, using deadly force on protesters and hold on to control of his jamahiriya (state of the masses)? He is apparently drawing on both his army and foreign mercenaries for the purpose, but there are signs the regime is cracking: people are speaking out in their own names, some troops are said to have come over to the side of the protesters, there are rumors that Qadhafi has left the country and his son Saif al Islam is right now blaming it all on drug-crazed, drunk protesters who want to divide Libya, establish Islamic emirates and precipitate foreign intervention.  He offers reform, money, local control, a constitution.  He says the army is with Qadhafi. The regime or chaos is his overall message.  Sound familiar?

It could be the final cry of a dying regime, but a lot depends on the wisdom of the protesters:  they need to maintain nonviolent discipline, keep their numbers high, reach out to the security forces and try to get a bit more international news coverage.