Trump is losing two wars, one is in Iran

This clip reveals two things about Trump. He has downgraded his goals for the Iran war. And he really doesn’t care about ordinary Americans. All international wars are two-level games: one international and the other domestic.

War goals

Trump started the Iran war looking for regime change. That failed. The regime did not fall. It hardened. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now fully in charge. We have no reason to believe the new Supreme Leader, whatever his health problems, is not fully in agreement with its priorities.

The main Iranian war goal was and is regime survival, along with all the means to remain resilient. Those means are its missile and drone capabilities and stocks, its regional allies, and above all its control over the strait of Hormuz. The nuclear program, especially enrichment, is important as a symbol of Iran’s independence and sovereignty. But the details are negotiable. The Islamic Republic will survive a decades-long limit on its enrichment to that required for its power reactor (3-5%).

The Israelis want to obliterate not just the nuclear program but also Iran’s missiles and drones as well as its regional allies. They care less about control over the strait of Hormuz. Iran’s charging of tolls there could even make pipelines from the Gulf through Israel feasible (again). The Israelis will make ending the war with only a nuclear agreement difficult.

Trump is now saying he has given up on regime change and doesn’t care about missile and drone capabilities or Iran’s regional allies. All he cares about is Iran not getting a nuclear weapon. He wants the strait of Hormuz open too, because otherwise his Gulf friends will be very unhappy. But he doesn’t care if Iran charges tolls.

The home front

Trump is in big trouble at home. According to The Economist, he is way under water, even on crime:

Inflation and the economy/jobs are the top issues on Americans’ minds.

This is obviously a big problem for the November Congressional election. The Supreme Court and the Virginia Supreme Court have given Trump an escape route by allowing redistricting in Republican controlled states and blocking it in Democratic Virginia. Republicans hope to gain 12 seats from the redistricting contest. That is a lot in a closely divided America.

But it is not so clear that America is closely divided, especially if the Democrats succeed in making the mid-terms not only about the House and Senate but also about the President, his economy, and his war. His pledge to suspend the 18-cent gas tax isn’t going to make him popular. He’ll have lots of other bogus tricks up his sleeve, including his claim of $18 trillion in foreign investment since he took office. That’s simply an outright lie.

Chinese President Xi will give Trump something before he returns to Washington. My guess is a promise to buy lots of soybeans and some other tidbits for Trump’s political base. But even farmers seem to have begun to understand that a mediocre New York City real estate tycoon and TV personality who golfs more than 20% of his days in office at a cost of $100 million to the American taxpayer may not have their best interests at heart.