Trump is up the Gulf without a paddle

Another week of President Trump’s predicting the re-opening of the strait of Hormuz has passed. The result so far is a statement from the Iranian National Security Council Secretary re-iterating the usual list Tehran demands (translation courtesy of Google):

Never threaten Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of this nation.
End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever.
Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran.
Pay the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran without any reduction.
Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation.
Unconditionally release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people.

Let’s examine the merits of these demands one by one. Remember though: I am not a lawyer.

Never threaten

This is rich, coming from a government that encourages its citizens to chant “Death to America.” The Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) explained the target was the US government, not the American people. But that of course is what Trump says about his threats. So no comfort there.

Mutual insults are a long tradition in US/Iranian relations. I doubt they are going to disappear anytime soon. But both countries would do well to reduce the volume and frequency. It satisfies domestic constituencies, but it isn’t going to bring an end to the war.

End the aggression

Here I agree with labeling the war as aggression. The UNGA definition is “the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State.” The Americans might claim they did it in preventive self-defense, but it is hard to see how that would convince a reasonable third party. The UN Charter does not allow pre-emption.

As for Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq, none of them are internationally recognized states. They are all para-statal forces, so I think they are not entitled to the same protection from aggression that states have.

Lift the blockade and remove forces

Blockade is an act of war. This war is a war of aggression. So I think the Iranians are well within their rights to ask the US to lift the naval blockade.

The Iranians can ask whatever they want of the US forces near Iran, but there they are not on firm ground. The US can station forces wherever a host country invites them as well as sail and fly in international waters and airspace.

Pay for the damages of war

Again: the Iranians can ask, but they no doubt know that any American leader who agreed would not last long. American taxpayers have already paid for the military force that caused the damage. They won’t pay a second time.

I expect however that the Iranians will get fees for services rendered from ships passing through the strait of Hormuz. They will be content with that.

Lift the sanctions

Alleviating sanctions is certainly possible in a deal. That was part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The lifting then did not work well from the Iranian point of view. I expect them to insist on better this time around.

Sanctions however have perverse effects. It is entirely possible that lifting them will undermine the Islamic Republic and its citizens’ loyalty to it.

Unfreeze Iranian assets

The is also true of Iran’s frozen assets. Once they start flowing back to Tehran, Iranians are going to want to see the benefits. If instead the powers that be use the money for weapons, the nuclear program, and feathering their own nests, ordinary Iranians will begin to demand their share.

Bottom line

I suppose these demands may be prelude to an agreement, but it doesn’t sound like it. US acceptance of anything like them would spell ignominious defeat. I’m not against that, as the war was a stupid act of aggression. But I expect Trump to continue promising an agreement while Iran and Oman reach an agreement on tolls in the strait of Hormuz.