Former President Alexandar Vucic’s coalition suffered a definitive defeat in today’s parliamentary election. With 51% of the vote, the Student List beat Vucic’s 40%. He conceded gracefully and early.
The Student List will occupy 135-140 of the 250 seats in the Serbian parliament. If their unity can be maintained, that should prove an ample margin. Presidential elections will be held December 26 to replace term-limited Vucic, who had resigned in hope of returning as prime minister.
Vucic has been in power since 2017 as deputy prime minister (2012-14), prime minister (2014-17), and president . He had previously served in a Milosevic government from 1998 until Milosevic’s defeat at the polls in 2000.
Despite his impeccable Serb nationalist credentials, Vucic was avowedly pro-EU when he returned to power in 2012. He played that tune skillfully until his election as president. He then turned increasingly to Moscow and Beijing for weapons and technology, while continuing to string along Washington and Brussels by promising lithium and ammunition for Ukraine. Washington reciprocated with undue political support and Brussels with continuation of Serbia’s accession negotiations.
Vucic rearmed Serbia at great expense and tried to undermine Kosovo’s statehood while playing at negotiations on what the EU termed political normalization. Even as he turned eastward in foreign policy, his governance became increasingly autocratic and corrupt. He brought the press under government control while feeding contracts to cronies and failing to arrest blatant criminals.
The EU in the past year or so has awakened to Vucic’s perfidies and started slowing the accession process. The US administration cold-shouldered Vucic after a deal he had promised to Jared Kushner fell apart. Members of the US Congress have become increasingly vocal in criticizing Vucic for aligning with Russia and China.
The winning Student List grew out of years of protests. Their themes have successively been anti-violence, pro-environment, and anti-corruption. They have focused on grassroots organizing against a formidable regime with nationalist credentials and vast patronage resources.
Their program is admirably clear and succinct. It features rule of law, free media, meritocracy, education, labor, food, housing, and health.
Many of the individuals on their list for parliament are not well-known nationally. Student-led “plenums” chose them after interviews, but the list does not include students themselves. A cardiologist leads the mostly professional list.
It would be surprising if the new majority had an easy time of it. Vucic’s people, experienced in parliamentary and political ways and means, will no doubt do their best to make it hard. In addition, new parliamentarians will need to organize and discipline themselves in ways they haven’t yet experienced. It will be vital that they get a president elected in December who can help.
The students have said little about foreign affairs so far. And some of that little is not so good. Their Kragujevac Memorandum restated Serbia’s claim to sovereignty over Kosovo, but at least one Belgrade expert suspects they will look for ways to ameliorate if not resolve that issue.
The new parliamentarians will no doubt also look for ways to accelerate Serbia’s EU accession and repair relations with the United States. They will not break definitively with Russia and China. The former still controls the Serbian security apparatus, which will need thorough lustration. China provides a lot of investment, which Serbia will need to continue welcoming. But we can hope for a gradual turn westward, at least correcting Vucic’s definitive turn eastward.
MAGates campaigned hard for Vucic. They no doubt are doing likewise for Netanyahu. Trump wanted Bolsonaro to win in Brazil. He didn’t.
People are sick and tired of being sick and tired. The blatant lying, grotesque racism, corrupt money-grubbing, insulting language, and ripping off poor people is generating a reaction. The pendulum is swinging. Let’s hope it swings far enough to create a Blue Wave in the US!
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