Dialogue should not be about the Association

Antigonë Isufi of KALLXO.com asked questions. I replied:

1. Do you expect renewed momentum in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue following the formation of Kosovo’s new institutions? What factors will determine whether the process can move forward?

A: The negotiating strategy of the EU will be important. If Brussels continues to prioritize the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, without any quid pro quo for Kosovo, the Dialogue will continue to go nowhere. My view is that the ASM can only be acceptable to Kosovo once all threats to its sovereignty and territorial integrity are removed, preferably by Serbian diplomatic recognition. 

If the Serb municipalities, who already cooperate, want to institutionalize their cooperation, they can do that without any obstacle as a non-government organization, or better within the framework of the existing Kosovo Association of Municipalities. 

2. Do you expect high-level meetings between Kosovo and Serbia to take place in the coming weeks or months? What conditions would need to be met for such meetings to be convened, and how likely are they to produce concrete results?

A: I suppose the EU will insist on meetings, but if they persist in asking nothing of Serbia and everything from Kosovo they won’t go anywhere. Of course it depends a bit on who will be prime minister of Serbia. If it is Vucic, he has made it clear he will do nothing that advances recognition of Kosovo as sovereign and independent. That means the ASM has to be de-prioritized. If it is someone else, we’ll have to wait and see.

3. What should be the immediate priorities of the dialogue? Should the focus remain on implementing the 2023 Agreement on the Path to Normalisation and its Implementation Annex, or are new political commitments needed to move the process forward?

A: I think the initial focus should be on implementation of existing agreements, including the older technical ones as well as normalization and its implementation annex. I haven’t heard of any new magic formulas.

And for those who say the normalization agreement is modeled on the one the two Germanies found useful, I would remind them that the two Germanies agreement allowed both to join the United Nations. If that were to happen for Kosovo, I’d have to rethink. But I won’t, because the Russians have their own reasons for stopping Kosovo UN membership. 

4. How significant is the role of the European Union and its special representative in facilitating the next phase of the dialogue? Do you believe the EU should adopt a different approach to overcome the current obstacles and encourage both parties to fulfil their commitments?

A: Yes, I believe the EU should not insist on the ASM but work on other matters until Serbia is ready to recognize Kosovo. Getting a Serbian signature on the normalization agreement might be the right place to start.