President Trump persists in making things worse. The awful wars in Ukraine and Iran are prime examples.
Ukrainian President Zelensky has repeatedly expressed his interest in a negotiated end to the Ukraine war. Russian President Putin has not. He wants to slog on until all of Donetsk province is in Russian hands. At the current pace, that could take decades.
President Trump has nevertheless decided to bring heavy pressure to bear on Ukraine, not on Russia. He has cut off early warnings of Russian missile launches. He has also slowed Starshield (the military version of Elon Musk’s Starlink) connections for Ukraine, hindering navigation of its air defense missiles and drones. That contributes directly to deaths, injuries, and destruction in Ukraine.
Trump appears to be negotiating an oil and gas deal with Moscow that would benefit his associates, and likely also himself. Trump lifted sanctions on exports of Russian diesel, apparently in a futile effort to bring down global prices before the US election. That failed, but the move is putting a lot of cash in Putin’s pockets. Trump has not stopped Russia from helping Iran to target US and allied assets in the Middle East.
Trump has also made a fool of himself by announcing an “energy” truce between Moscow and Kyiv that neither warring party knew about. Russia violated it right away. Ukraine followed.
Ukraine’s air defense was already in trouble before these Trump stupidities. Lack of Patriot and other missiles allows the many more Russian drones and missiles launched this year to reach their targets. Ukraine is still hitting a lot of Russian oil and cyber facilities. A cold winter looms in both countries.
Things are little better in the Middle East, especially when it comes to issues of most direct interest to the US.
American escorting of ships through the strait of Hormuz worked for a while. But Iran has stepped up its game and is hitting many more. The process is a complicated and difficult one. Smaller ships belonging to the oil producers carry the oil through the strait and then offload it outside the strait to much larger crude carriers belonging to the consumers. Presumably the extra costs involved are born by the producers, who however are also benefiting from increased world prices for whatever they can sell.
Iran is starting to restore some nuclear sites. While it is presumably far from being able to reconstitute its nuclear program, this is likely an early sign that it is intent on doing so.
Israel and Iran appear to have restored deterrence for now. They are not hitting each other directly. But Israel continues to hit what it says are Hamas and Hezbollah targets in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Yemeni Houthis and Saudi Arabia are attacking each others’ airports. The Houthis are also encircling Taiz, but they have lost direct control over the Bab al Mandeb. President Trump has refused to support the Saudis militarily but the US is providing intelligence.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, things are static and sometimes improving, if modestly. Syria and Türkiye are reintegrating their Kurdish rebels, though the economic situation in Syria remains dire. The Arab kingdoms and the Egyptian dictatorship are holding, despite the damage Iran has caused. Iraq, heavily dependent on oil exports and revenue, is getting some out overland through Syria.
The big question is whether the US and Israel will go back to war with Iran before or after the US election November 3. Trump has said he won’t until after, but he is a liar. No one should believe anything he says without verification. He appears out of ideas, if he ever had any. War isn’t an idea, its a resort of the desperate. He appears desperate.
More war in the Middle East will be awful for Ukraine, as it will continue to exhaust US munitions. Nor will it be good for America, as the oil and gas price increases will likely tip the economy into stagflation.
In Ukraine, Trump has made it clear he is determined to see Russia win, despite the preferences of the Congress and the American people. That makes an awful world, as it splits the NATO alliance and ends America’s already fading role as leader of the democratic world.
Putin has good reason to be happy with his “nelegal” agent in the White House.
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Thanks Daniel. Excellent essay, connecting these 2 wars. Morally they are connected in being equally reprehensible, and increasingly connected economically as well.