The Republicans yesterday lost control of Congress yesterday. In the Senate, the margin is at least 54-46, but two seats remain undecided. In the House, the Democrats have already captured 228 seats (the majority is 218), with dozens more still undecided.
Trump asked that people vote as if he were on the ballot. They did. He lost the referendum he asked for.
The main issue was affordability. Americans blamed Trump and Republicans for high gasoline prices due to the Iran war and general inflation due to his tariffs. Healthcare, corruption, wealth distribution, the immigration crackdown, and lots of other issues contributed. Here is what Gallup found:
Apart from Iran and Israel/Palestine, none of these are primarily foreign policy issues.
No one should expect an immediate impact on foreign policy, which is largely the President’s prerogative. And Trump’s inclination is always to double down rather than retreat. The new Congress won’t be sworn in until January 3, so Trump has two months without any constraints it might impose. Even thereafter, he can veto legislation. The Democrats alone will not have sufficient votes (2/3) in either House to override a veto without Republican concurrence.
Even after the Congress reconvenes with its Democratic majorities, the focus will be on domestic issues. The new majority will have the power to subpoena witnesses, which it will use to try to expose Trump’s blatantly corrupt behavior. His friends and family will need their lawyers. But Trump will be selling pardons, which may be cheaper.
There is little the Congress can do on the main issues in the campaign. An increase in healthcare subsidies could be in order, but the budget situation is near disastrous due to Iran war expenditures and Trump’s big tax cuts for the rich. The Congress will want to reverse some of those and redistribute income to the less well off.
When it comes to Iran, the Democrats will want an end to the war. But they will have little leverage to get that done. They could vote to cut off funding for it, but that is a losing proposition in American politics. The electorate would view that as undermining the troops. So they will resort to hearings on the damage done to American forces and bases as well as the associated costs. They may even try to impeach Secretary of Testosterone Hegseth, a move that might garner some Republican support.
Vice President Vance is blaming the Republican defeat on the Iran war, but there is no indication President Trump agrees. He thinks it was high gasoline prices, not the war that he denies caused them.
Trump may even use the two months before the new Congress convenes to attack Iran again, in a desperate attempt to force Tehran to cry uncle. That would not likely succeed, but it could give Trump the opportunity to declare “mission accomplished” and end the standoff on terms that Tehran would accept. Certainly the Israelis will be pressuring Trump to renew the war.
The Democrats are split on Israel/Palestine issues. Some continue to support Israel unreservedly. Others want to end that policy and redress it in favor of the Palestinians. The Republicans will try hard to drive a wedge into the new majority on this issue, dividing the Democrats and giving the Israelis renewed support.
There is in any event little the Congress can do on Israel/Palestine except withhold weapons or aid for Israel. Trump has already said he will cut the aid, but the Republican Congress has passed integration of Israel into US defense technology development. That may need to be re-examined.
While Gallup didn’t list tariffs, they are an important contributor to economic concerns. Here I think the Congress could act, rolling back many of the President’s ill-considered levies.
But that would require some reciprocal action by US trading partners that will be difficult to arrange through an administration that doesn’t want to do it. The Congress has no ability of its own to negotiate with Canada or the EU, never mind the many other countries affected by Trump’s ridiculous moves.
Like Israel/Palestine, the Democrats and their newfound voters are split on immigration. The Congress could pass laws restoring Temporary Protective Status and clarifying that requests for asylum do not constitute illegal entry, but I have my doubts they will do so.
They should at least require that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents be readily identifiable. It is outrageous that unidentified people are kidnapping and imprisoning Americans. They should also investigate the detention facilities and end the export of people to countries from which they did not originate.
The Alliance was not a major concern of voters, but it is a major concern for me. The Congress has long been more favorable to NATO than this Administration. Leading Democrats have been critical of Trump’s disdain for the Alliance and for Europe in general. I expect them to try to reactivate support for democracy and the rule of law, on which the Alliance is based.
The most important issue facing NATO at the moment is the Ukraine war. The Congress should insist that Trump impose the tough new sanctions proposed by Lindsay Graham on Russia. It should also insist on restarting military aid to Ukraine. The Europeans in response should agree that when the Iran war ends they will ante up for both military and economic needs in the Gulf.
The Democratic win yesterday was real and consequential. But it is not permanent. They will face the electorate again in two years, with the presidency in play. The new majorities need to ensure that they are responsive to their constituents, which isn’t as easy as it sounds. The Congress has little to say about inflation, for example, or the business cycle. Crime and construction of data centers are mainly state and local issues, not Federal ones.
If the Democrats want to change the trajectory of American politics permanently, they will need to be daring. I doubt it will happen, but admitting the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico as states would have a real chance of accomplishing that. Republicans would then have to compete effectively in two additional states. Doing so in the District would be hard, as it often votes 90 percent Democratic. Doing so in Puerto Rico would be more feasible. It is high tie to make them do it.
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