Categories: Daniel Serwer

How to fix what ails America

The Iranian Foreign Minister trolled back:

POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service.

Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER.

20% is of course too much. We will be fair

Trump has it wrong
  1. The strait is not fully open. No more than a quarter of the ships that used to cross it every day are now passing through.
  2. It won’t remain open even to that extent if Iran decides not to let it open. Tehran has the military means and political will to hit ships that try to pass without its consent.
  3. A blockade is not just stopping ships. It is an act of war. The Iranians will respond by shelling American bases and allies.
  4. The US is not able to guard the strait, which would require a massive military operation to clear Iranian forces from more than 100 miles of their own coastline and hold that territory indefinitely.
  5. The US position has been that no charges for any purpose are allowed, in accordance with a provision of the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention that the US has not signed or ratified but nevertheless regards as established international law.
  6. Twenty percent is a crazy ass number. The Iranians are talking charges of 1-2 percent. If the US charges more than ten times as much, everyone will send their ships through Iranian territorial waters, which the US won’t be controlling.
  7. The US attack on Iran caused the main volatility in the strait. Going back to war is not going to help.
Stuck

The fact is Trump has no idea what to do. He has put the US in an impossible position.

More war will raise oil prices and not open the strait. Backing off will allow Iran to toll ships passing through the strait, with the option to close it whenever Tehran decides to do so.

Friends and allies as well as adversaries will meet any effort to collect US tolls with defiance.

The sad fact is that America has elected a blithering, ill-intentioned, grifter who is raiding the national treasury and steering America towards disaster.

What is needed won’t be done

What is needed now is what we used to call an “intervention.” It can only come from the Republicans, as they control both Houses of Congress. Like Barry Goldwater, who told Nixon he had to resign, a prominent Republican needs to lead a delegation to the White House to tell the President he must resign.

But this Republican party won’t do it. Trump controls all except those who have decided not to run again. Republicans are too afraid of Trump’s primary endorsements to challenge him openly.

Where the answer lies

The answer lies in the seven retiring Republican Senators and the sixteen retiring Republican members of the House who are not seeking other posts. They could save the country from shipwreck.

If even a handful announce that they will caucus with the Democrats, the majority in both Houses would shift. The new majorities would not be able to radically change domestic or foreign policy, as they would need to satisfy their newly acquired members. But they could certainly end the blatant corruption of the Trump family, the violent and indiscriminate immigration enforcement, the attacks on minorities, and the war on science and vaccines.

That would be real progress, given where we are at.

Daniel Serwer

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Daniel Serwer

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