Trump and Putin have the same problem

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have both launched wars of aggression, the former against Ukraine and the latter, with Israel, against Iran. Unable to win and unable to negotiate an exit each deems worth his while, both are stuck. They are choosing to double down to justify their sunk costs.

Why is this happening to two countries whose military power far exceeds that of their adversaries?

Possible answers

There are several possible answers.

Washington and Moscow are both fighting wars of aggression far from their homelands. Those long supply lines limit their capabilities. Russia’s are also vulnerable. Ukraine has been doing a lot of damage to Russia’s logistics. For now, Kyiv has an advantage in drone technology as well as much shorter internal lines of communication.

The Iranians aren’t able to do much harm to American logistics, but the Americans did it to themselves. They expended large quantities of more advanced anti-missile and anti-drone weapons in the initial days of the war. It will take years to replace those supplies. And the Americans need to maintain a naval and air presence more than 6300 miles from home.

Iran has buried its materiel underground near where it is deployed, which has proven an effective stratagem.

Both Washington and Moscow face some resistance at home to their military adventures. Polling in Russia and the US suggests weakening support for their wars. But neither wants to yield. Putin doesn’t face a presidential poll until 2030 and has nothing to fear even then, as Russian elections are neither free nor fair. He wants a victory he can sell as worthy of the enormous sacrifices Russians have made.

The Congressional election in November could severely limit Trump’s prerogatives if Democrats gain control of one or both Houses. Trump wants a clear win before then to stave off that possibility.

Both Trump and Putin are narcissists who believe a “win” will make them look good and give them more power in an increasingly geopolitical world. Neither realizes he is weakening his own countries and making the world more dangerous.

The main factor

But ultimately, the main explanation for why the aggressors are stuck lies elsewhere.

Trump and Putin have convinced their adversaries that the conflict is an existential one. Ukrainians do not believe Putin will stop even if he legally gains all of the territory he has supposedly annexed to Russia. Putin has convinced them, in my view correctly, that he cannot accept a sovereign and independent Ukraine on Russia’s border.

The Iranian regime is convinced of the same with respect to Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. They cannot accept the continued existence of the Islamic Republic. Only continued control of the strait of Hormuz will give Iran confidence that it can survive.

Both Iran and Ukraine are fighting hard against long odds because they think the fight is existential.

The best outcome

These wars of aggression are clearly not existential for Russia and the United States. They were wars of choice, not necessity.

Though Putin claims the West and Ukraine are a military threat to Russia’s existence, that is only true in a nonmilitary sense. NATO is incapable of reaching agreement to attack Russia. But an independent, sovereign, and democratic Ukraine on Russia’s border would give people inside the Russian Federation inspiration to create their own independent, sovereign, and democratic states. That is what Putin wants to stifle.

As for the US, even a nuclear-armed Iran would pose no serious threat. The US and Israel both have the capacity to pre-empt or respond to any nuclear strike with one of their own that would obliterate all of Iran. Tehran knows that. A nuclear Iran, like nuclear North Korea, would be a strengthened regional power and bad for regional peace and security, but not one ready to use nuclear weapons.

The lesson here is that even powerful states should hesitate to attack less powerful ones, quite apart from the moral and humanitarian issues involved. The less powerful will fight hard if they think it is a matter of survival.