More pain and little gain

Donald Trump’s 14-point plan for ending the war he and Israel launched against Iran lasted less than a month.

That is not unusual for a ceasefire. The US has spent the last ten nights bashing Iran, including dual-use infrastructure. Iran has returned fire, not only against US forces but also against its allies in the region, especially Jordan and Kuwait. Tehran has also hit ships to prevent them from using the Omani side of the strait of Hormuz.

The US has re-imposed its embargo on ships using Iranian ports. But Iran during the ceasefire exported something like 80 million barrels of oil and imported a lot of the supplies it needed. It no longer has the empty ships it can load to be ready for another ceasefire. Brett Erikson thinks this means they won’t agree to one.

Upping the ante

Instead, the Iranians are upping the ante. Their Houthi allies in Yemen have declared a naval blockade, closing the Bab al Mandeb to Saudi shipping. The Saudis had been exportiIg about 5 million barrels per day of crude through that route, as well as some oil products.

Whether the Houthis will enforce this blockade effectively is not yet clear. But it could have a dramatic effect on world oil prices. Stocks are near an all-time low. Chinese conservation measures, which so far have helped moderate oil prices, are near their limit.

What the belligerents want

The main Iranian objective is continued control of the strait of Hormuz. It wants to charge tolls there, a move that is legal under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention for “services rendered.” Iran will claim it provides security and navigation services. The legal situation on tolls is confused, not least because President Trump has more than once threatened that the US would take charge of the strait and charge tolls.

Leaving aside Trump’s dumb remarks, the US wants to return to the pre-war regime. Then all ships transited the strait without paying tolls and without the risk of attack. That would unquestionably be nice, but the odds are low. Iran only needs to threaten an attack to raise insurance rates. An occasional volley, even one that doesn’t hit a ship, will be enough to dramatically slow traffic.

Israel, which conned Trump into this war, still wants regime change. It will do all it can to convince Trump to continue maximum military and financial pressure on Iran.

Why the uncertainty

This can’t go on forever.

The Islamic Republic regards this war as existential. Iranian capacity for sacrifice is enormous, not least because repression insulates the regime from popular pressure. But it is not infinite. The damage to Iranian infrastructure is starting to hurt.

America is not really suffering, yet. But it will soon. Oil prices are above $80 per barrel and moving towards $100, again. Price at the pump averages $4 per gallon, with prospects for $5. The US Congressional election is less than four months off. America needs to worry about the availability of munitions for any future contingency.

At some point, both the Iranians and the Americans will want to pause the war again.

There is no predicting when that will happen. It depends on decisions by individuals, above all Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. For now, they seem content to batter each other. Only more pain and little gain will convince them otherwise.