It’s good that a bad war is ending badly

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding purports to end the war, but it is really a 60-day ceasefire. It needs to be renewed in the absence of a final agreement. It includes only a single concession to the US and several important concessions to Iran. The media have focused mainly on those. But the big news is what is missing.

The concessions

The only meaningful gain for the US is the reopening of the strait of Hormuz. That is what drove Washington to make this agreement. President Trump is hoping to reverse the 50% or more runup in oil and oil product prices due to the dual US and Iranian embargo of the strait of Hormuz. It will take months, perhaps into next year, for that to happen.

Meanwhile the Iranians get multiple benefits. They will be charging for services rendered for ships passing the strait. That is permitted under the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention the US claims is customary international law. It is also what Turkey does at the Bosporus and Dardanelles.

Sale of Iranian oil and payment for it are to restart right away. That is an enormous benefit to Iran. So too is the unfreezing of something like $24 billion in Iranian assets, relief from all sanctions, and the promise of a $300 billion reconstruction fund provided primarily by the Arab Gulf states. All this is many, many times more than what Obama authorized in connection with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. It contained precisely the same reiteration of Iran’s no nukes pledge that Trump is getting.

What is missing

More important is what is missing from the agreement. It does not mention nuclear inspections. They are vital to confirming that Iran is not reconstituting a nuclear weapons program. The 60% enriched uranium remains buried, with no provision for its recovery or dilution. Iran pledges nothing on missiles or its regional allies. But the ceasefire supposedly applies also to Lebanon, thus obligating the US to constrain Israel even though it is not a party to the agreement.

The Administration is trying to sell this agreement as a historic change in relations with Iran. The agreement betrays little of that spirit. The economic relief will unquestionably allow Iran to enhance its regional and even global influence. But nothing in the agreement changes the Islamic Republic’s commitment to the destruction of the Jewish state. That, and the reciprocal Israeli commitment to destruction of the Islamic Republic, is the core of the conflict. The agreement won’t resolve that mutual commitment.

The Administration is telling anyone who will listen that Iran committed in private to more than the written agreement says. That is no comfort at all, until the results play out in reality. Even written commitments need more than words.

Still, it’s a good thing

Though a giant embarrassment to Donald Trump, this lopsided agreement is still a good thing for the United States. It pauses a war that was costing a bundle and producing no good effect, other than demonstrating the profound incompetence of the President. It gives us all an opportunity to reflect on a better future for the Middle East.

The short answer to that question comes from Israel’s leading nongovernmental expert on Iran:

At long last, I hope policymakers in Washington have come to understand a reality that has too often been ignored: the road to regional normalization runs through Ramallah, not Tehran.

The recent campaign against Iran only reinforced a fundamental strategic lesson. Despite… https://t.co/YJQzSct7F8— Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش (@citrinowicz) June 17, 2026

The Arab states have mostly given up on destroying the Jewish one. Iran has however succeeded in mobilizing non-state military forces in Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, and Yemen to man its Axis of Resistance. Only real progress towards a Palestinian state will weaken that axis. It will also enable the Arab states that have not made their peace with Israel to do so. That includes the big fry: Saudi Arabia.

Lebanon

Lebanon however is a special case. The current government there is committed to controlling and disarming Hezbollah, but the Israelis are making that impossible. They occupy southern Lebanon and are continuing to bomb what they say are Hezbollah targets in Beirut and other parts of the country.

So long as that continues, popular sentiment in Lebanon will favor whoever fights Israel, rather than re-establishment of the state’s monopoly on the legitimate means of violence. The American-hosted talks between Beirut and Jerusalem, which are slated to continue next week, need to result in cooperation against Hezbollah. That won’t be easy.

There is hope

Trump made a colossal mistake in joining Israel to launch the war on Iran. The November Congressional election will give Americans the opportunity to correct their 2024 mistake.

If the war ends now with vast resources headed towards Iran, that will open an opportunity for changes inside the Islamic Republic. It will give the government a chance to refocus on domestic needs and spread resources more equitably.

It will also give Iranians an opportunity to insist on it. The protests and upheaval the Israelis and Trump hoped would happen during the war are much more likely in its aftermath.