It’s an old game. They’ll play it again

Ljudmila Cvetkovic of Radio Free Europe asked some questions about the US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue. I replied. Here is the Serbian version. Here is the original English:

Q: What does the launch of a Strategic Dialogue with the United States mean for Serbia?

A: It means the US is making another effort, after many unsuccessful ones during the Biden Administration, to get Serbia aligned with US objectives. 

Q: Is there a reason for Belgrade to be enthusiastic about the start of this Strategic Dialogue?

A: Yes. It will help President Vucic ensure that the US does nothing to criticize him or support his opponents in the upcoming election. Or oppose his effort to trade the presidency for the prime ministry. It really isn’t appropriate to announce or hold the strategic dialogue before the election. 

Q: How might Serbia’s relations with China and Russia affect this process?

A: The Trump Administration hasn’t done much to counter either one in the Balkans, except for its sanctions on NIS and its insistence on disinvestment by Gazprom, which is a good thing. If that issue isn’t solved before the strategic dialogue, Belgrade will need to come to the table with a serious solution. 

Stability, stability, stability

Q: What are the United States’ strategic interests when it comes to Serbia?

A: Stability, stability, stability. That’s not what I would prioritize, but Washington seems wedded to that notion. Stability means keeping an increasingly autocratic regime in place. I’d prefer to see a genuine effort to support a return to democracy and counter Belgrade’s “Serbian world” efforts to interfere in both Bosnia and Kosovo. 

Q: What does it mean in practice to be a strategic partner of the United States?

A: It’s a rhetorical upgrade in relations, but what it really means depends on circumstances. Washington is transactional these days. If it gets what it wants, mainly on NIS I imagine, it will give something in return. Serbia has a long history of giving Washington half a loaf and will try to do so again. 

Belgrade stands to gain

Q: As a strategic partner of the United States, could Belgrade expect greater support in protecting its interests regarding Kosovo and Republika Srpska?

A: Yes. In the RS, Washington has already given away the store with the de-sanctioning of Dodik. In Kosovo, Belgrade will likely be able to continue to avoid any accountability for the kidnapping of the three Kosovo policemen, the rioting against KFOR troops, and the Banjska terrorist incident.

I won’t be surprised to see Washington return to pushing the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities (ASMM), which for Kosovo is only possible with Serbian recognition. The ASMM is a dialogue killer.