Israel: too soon to say who really won

Israel’s election has produced some clear signals, but no clear winner yet.

Signals

Some things are clear:

1. Turnout was high, especially among Palestinian citizens of Israel anxious to displace Netanyahu and gain leverage over the government.
2. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud suffered losses.
3. So did the opposition “Together” list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.
4. The big winner was Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party, but it gained fewer total seats than Likud.
5. The Arab Joint List did particularly well, more than doubling its seats.

While the opposition has more total seats than the current government coalition, it needs Arab votes, either in the coalition or outside it, to gain the majority.

The hard part

As in many parliamentary systems with more than two parties, government formation will require an elaborate and likely lengthy negotiation process. That doesn’t really start until official publication of the results November 4.

The President will then give a 28-day mandate to form the government to whoever he thinks most likely to succeed. The president can extend that by up to 14 days. If the first person mandated fails, the president chooses a second, who has another 28 days to form a government. Even after that, a majority in parliament can propose a candidate to the president. So we could be well into next year before it is clear whether a government will be formed based on this election.

If no one succeeds in forming a government that can win a vote of no confidence, the president will call new elections. That could mean another more than month-long delay.

In the meanwhile, Netanyahu would remain prime minister, in caretaker capacity. He would be obligated to exercise restraint but not prevented from going to war.

Ambiguity personified

The outcome then is ambiguous. Netanyahu lost support but will stay in power for months more unless Eisenkot quickly forms a coalition with Arab party votes, whether inside or outside an opposition coalition. Odds are that will be difficult, as part of the opposition and even Eisenkot himself have opposed Arab participation.