Trump has lost Netanyahu’s war

President Trump has spent the last couple of days claiming that his negotiators are talking with a key Iranian. He also says the Iranians want a deal. Tehran denies the claims.

Trump is suing for peace

I believe Tehran. Trump wants a deal. He has sent possible intermediaries scurrying to Tehran to find someone the Americans can talk to. He has even floated a “15-point” peace plan. Though far from the “unconditional surrender” Trump initially said he wanted, it reiterates US demands from before the war.

The US is also sending something like 7000 ground troops to the region. That is nowhere near enough to do anything significant to turn the tide. Enough maybe to take Kharg Island, but then they would be sitting ducks. Not nearly enough to take the coastline of the strait.

Iran isn’t going to blink

Iran isn’t going to blink. Tehran has lost a lot of equipment and key people, but the regime is still functioning. The Islamic Republic now controls shipping through the strait of Hormuz and is maintaining a decent air strike op tempo, especially targeting Israel:

The Iranians are not at the end of their rope. If they want anything like their demands for security guarantees and compensation, they will need to hold out longer. They will want not just relief from sanctions but also continued control over the strait of Hormuz.

Israeli and American war aims have diverged

Trump entered this war at the behest of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israel’s aim was to collapse the Iranian regime, or failing that to deprive it of the means of attacking Israel. The Israelis want Iran permanently disabled. They don’t care how long that will take.

Trump does. He can’t ignore the interests of the Gulf allies or the economic impact of sharply higher oil prices. While Saudi Arabia may still be urging Trump to continue, Qatar and the UAE have too much at stake. Their oil and gas production facilities as well as their claims as safe havens require an end to the war.

War has political implications

This Iran war is helping Netanyahu politically. Traumatized by the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, the Israelis are trying to obliterate all their regional antagonists. They failed with Hamas in Gaza but they are doing better against Lebanese Hezbollah and against Iran. The longer the wars continue to visibly damage Israel’s enemies, the better Netanyahu’s chances in the October 27 Knesset election.

Trump never had majority support for this Iran war, and now he is down to the hardcore MAGA 36% overall. On the economy, he is even lower, due in large part to soaring gasoline prices. It will take months for higher energy prices to work their way through the economy. That will push up inflation during the months prior to the November mid-terms.

Trump is still in command of the Republican party. But he is in peril of losing all but his most loyal voters. No wonder he is trying not only to end the war but also to make voting harder.