Senator Chris Murphy and National Security Advisor John Bolton disagree on whether to stop the Iran war now. But they agree that doing so will leave an embittered Iranian regime in power. The US would be worse off than before it attacked Iran. Murphy would accept that outcome to avoid further losses. Bolton would not. He is hoping for a miracle, or the deployment of US ground troops.
Trump’s confusion about war aims complicates this choice. Secretary of State Rubio has cited destroying Iran’s missile capabilities and its navy as the war aims:
He reflects what the Defense Department told the President it can do. But Trump has cited other goals. Destruction of the nuclear program he already claimed he had obliterated and regime change are among them.
The Israelis, who corralled Trump into this war, aim for regime change. Prime Minister Netanyahu is unequivocal. He wants the Iranians to rise up to make it happen while “we” break the bones of the regime:
That makes ending the war difficult. If the Israelis keep attacking, the Iranians will not free up the strait of Hormuz. And they will continue to attack US bases in the region. The US will not stop responding.
Iranian President Pezeshkian tweeted yesterday:
The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.
Recognition of Iran’s “legitimate rights” includes the right to enrich uranium. That’s what Trump and Netanyahu want the Iranians to give up. The Iranians know reparations aren’t going to happen. And it is hard to know what guarantees against future aggression would be “firm.”
Trump is in a cul-de-sac. He wants to pull the plug. The Israelis don’t. And the Iranians are demanding outcomes that neither Israel nor the US can concede.
It is Iran, not the US or Israel, that can end the war. But their interests are best served by prolonging it. That will cause serious damage to their Gulf rivals, the world economy, and the Trump Administration. The price is high, but Iran has a long history of sacrifice and martyrdom.
The coordinated International Energy Agency drawdown of oil stocks will help blunt the price rise. That is the right thing to do. Caveat emptor: I helped put that scheme in place in the 1980s as US representative to the IEA Committee on Emergency Questions. But the drawdown will ease Trump’s political pain and weigh in favor of continuing a pointless war. That is not something I would not want, but I don’t get a vote.
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