Trump wants to pull the plug

President Trump yesterday made contradictory remarks about prospects for an end to the Iran war. He suggested to a Republican meeting that the end was near, causing markets to soar. Then after they had closed he implied at a press conference that he wanted to continue the war, at least for a while. Here is his press conference:

You won’t I hope be surprised if we learn today that someone made money on the sharp reversal.

What this really means

Trump needs an end to the war. With the strait of Hormuz closed and oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf at risk, prices are bound to rise above $100/barrel soon. The American economy is already in a jobs recession–it produced few new jobs last year. Inflation was already close to 3% before the oil price hike, well above the Fed’s 2% target. The MAGA base will be mostly unhappy with another long Middle East war. American munitions stocks are way down. The war has stretched the US military thin. The billionaires are phoning and telling their buffoonish friend to stop the carnage.

Pulling the plug would not be new to Trump. He did that with his insistence on a ceasefire in Gaza in October 2025. The Israelis didn’t like it, but they went along for the ride. They have not however withdrawn from half of Gaza or stopped killing Palestinians. Trump also pulled the plug with his call for an end to the June 2025 combined US and Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The problems this time

This time, he has problems. Both the Israelis and the Iranians get votes. If Iran continues its attacks on American facilities in the Gulf, Trump can’t pull the plug. Israel seems ready to continue no matter what, which likewise will cause the Iranians to target both Israel and American bases.

In addition, “mission accomplished” is a hard sell with Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Trump has already dismissed him as an unacceptable “light weight.”

The son of his predecessor, Mojtaba is not only a known hard liner. This war has taken the lives of his father, mother, wife, and at least one child. Iranians are big on sacrifice and martyrdom, but that doesn’t mean they don’t feel the losses. What are the odds that he isn’t going to seek revenge? He certainly won’t want to do a Delcy Rodrigues.

Consequences

Ending this war will not be easy. We are left with two possible consequences:

1. The war continues, wrecking havoc with the American and world economies.
2. Trump pulls the plug with someone in power in Tehran who will likely try to continue the war in some form, if not right away then at the earliest opportunity.

Even if the new Supreme Leader decides a pause is in Iran’s interest, he will use any ceasefire to re-equip and rebuild, including the nuclear program. A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we’ll still be at war.

Here is Trump’s speech to the Republicans: