Costly delusion

Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo Oliver Ivanović is quoted on B92:

“It should be clear to everyone, including Kosovo Albanians, that the issue of the Kosovo status has not been solved yet,” Ivanović told Tanjug and added that with all due respect to the U.S. and other influential and powerful countries that have recognized Kosovo’s independence, it was clear that until Serbia did so there would be a serious obstacle to Kosovo promoting itself as independent.

The state secretary noted that the negotiations on the status of Kosovo should not be rushed and that Albanians were slowly coming round to the fact that Serbia had all the keys, which was why they would need to negotiate with it about this matter sooner or later….

He expressed belief that the Cypriot model was the only right solution for the Kosovo issue.

Speaking about the status of northern Kosovo, the state secretary pointed out that this issue would certainly be opened, together with the status of entire Kosovo.

I agree that Serbia is an obstacle to full realization of Kosovo’s independence, both because it continues to control the north and because it stands in the way of General Assembly membership.  But to suggest that Serbia has “all the keys” is clearly mistaken, unless Belgrade is willing to give up on European Union candidacy, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear enough this week in Belgrade.  And the notion that the EU would accept a Cyprus solution suggests outright delusion.  That is precisely what virtually all EU members–especially Serbia’s putative ally Cyprus–will want to avoid.

This is instructive, because it illustrates so clearly how Belgrade paints itself into a corner.  The analysis is basically correct, but Belgrade’s influence is exaggerated.  Serbia does not have the power to reopen the question of Kosovo’s status, only the status of northern Kosovo, and it can get its way on that issue only if it is prepared to defy Brussels and Washington and sacrifice its own EU hopes.

I’ll be happy to let Serbs decide whether that is in their interest.  They will want to take into account that Kosovo seems to cost Belgrade 500 million euros per year, according to Serb sources.  It is hard to believe that is worthwhile, and it is certainly not sustainable.