The truly perfect storm

That’s Nigeria, not Irene, which was a bit of a fizzle in DC.

The bombing Friday of a UN building in Abuja threatens to renew Muslim/Christian conflict in Africa’s most populous country, one that provides substantial amounts of oil to the world market and to the United States.  Nigeria matters, even if Washington seems at times ignore it studiously.  Go figure:  we really do take oil from Nigeria, over one million barrels per day this year, more than  twice what we get from Iraq.

The perpetrator of the suicide bombing came from Boko Haram, a radical Muslim organization that not only advocates sharia for the Muslim-dominated states of northern Nigeria but also opposes Western education, dress and culture in general.  Clashes between Muslims and Christians are not uncommon in Nigeria, especially Kaduna, Kano and Plateau States, where fatalities often number in the hundreds.

This week’s attack was quantitatively less deadly than previous incidents among Nigerians, but qualitatively a departure, as it targeted internationals and called attention to what are thought to be growing ties between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda.  The Boko Haram claim of responsibility is interesting:

“We take full responsibility for the attack on the United Nations building in Abuja, because the Nigerian government is corrupt, insensitive and deceitful.”

The spokesperson accused the government of holding the sect’s members and “treating them very badly.”

“The government does not honour its promises and have (sic) closed all avenues of dialogue. We declared ceasefire because of Ramadan but we have to break it because our members and sympathizers are killed and tortured.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg. Immediately after fasting, we will start full scale offensive against the Nigerian state, including President Jonathan, for ordering extra-judicial killings of our members in Kano and Abuja.”

Not a word about the UN, whose efforts in Nigeria seem focused on conventional (i.e. Western-style) development.  So what we’ve got here is an attack on Western culture intended to teach the Nigerian government a lesson.

If you are wondering, there is some reason to think that the charge of extrajudicial killings is not entirely unfounded–excessive police violence is certainly not unthinkable in Nigeria, and Boko Haram suffered a military-style attack on its headquarters two years ago.

Nigeria has now enjoyed a decade of semi-democratic but too often corrupt governance.  Current President Goodluck Jonathan seems by far not the worst of Africa’s chiefs of state.  A Christian from the Niger Delta, he is going to need a lot of good luck to protect Nigeria from the maelstrom into which it seems headed.  Washington would do well to pay more attention, preferably by providing civilian (rather than military) assistance, especially in law enforcement.   An umbrella is better protection in a storm than artillery.

PS:  For a similar but more literary perspective, see G. Pascal Zachary’s piece on “Nigeria:  Too Big to Fail.”