Libya good, Egypt bad, Syria worse

Libyan militia fighters today captured and brought to their Zintan base Saif al Islam, Muammar Qaddafi’s one-time heir apparent.  He was trying to escape to Niger.  The interim Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Keib is talking fair trial and trying to prevent Saif from suffering his father’s fate at the hands of his captors.  Keeping Saif safe is vital if Libya is to stay on course towards a democratic regime with ample international support.

Libyans will want to try him in Libya, where justice would be a relative thing and result in the capital punishment the country wants and expects.  The International Criminal Court (ICC) will try to convince the Libyans to turn Saif over.  My own view is that they would be wise to do so, in order to liberate their government from a burden that will be difficult and distracting to discharge.  But the decision should be a Libyan one, after they have heard from the ICC.

In Egypt secularists and Islamists took to the streets yesterday in parallel demonstrations that have ended today in a police riot against those who remained at a sit-in in Tahrir square asking for a quick turnover of power to civilians.  In a well-timed piece published before today’s events, Marina Ottaway noted the revival of the Mubarak military/secular regime, without Mubarak.  Today’s events confirm her view and raise serious doubts about whether Egypt will ever see a truly democratic regime.

While Barbara Slavin is hopeful that the Arab League moves against Syria signal the beginning of the end for Assad regime, arrests and killings continue.  The regime seems unperturbed and continues to enjoy Russian and Iranian support.  It is stalling on international monitors.

Even without implementation the Arab League agreement seems to be having a salutary effect, if not on Syria at least on investors. As Michelle Dunne noted at the Middle East Institute conference Thursday, the Arab League’s new-found activism is a clear vote of no confidence in Bashar’s capacity to continue in office. That won’t get him to step down, but it will certainly make those thinking about investments in Syria think twice. Turkey has reportedly cancelled plans to explore for oil.

I still think there is a long way to go, however. The protesters need a sustainable strategy. And we (U.S., Arab League, Europeans and just about everybody else, even the Iranians) need to avoid the kind of sectarian strife that almost tore Iraq apart in 2005/6. It would be far better for these purposes if the protesters stay nonviolent. We need to convince Turkey in particular to restrain the Free Syrian Army defectors, whose modest tactical successes in recent days will be forgotten quickly as the real Syrian army does its deadly handiwork.