The first law of holes

Belgrade daily Pravda asked for my views on Kosovo and Serbia’s EU candidacy.  Here is how I responded:

Belgrade has dug a hole for itself.  It has told the world it will not recognize Kosovo as sovereign and independent.  It has exhausted its diplomatic credits trying to block recognition by other countries.  It has bought a Russian veto in the UN Security Council.  It has held on using its security forces to the northern corner of its former province.  It spends hundreds of millions of euros each year to keep its institutions functioning there.

It can expect none of this effort and expenditure to produce worthwhile results.  Whatever Kosovo’s status, it is clear that the democratically validated institutions in Pristina are the legitimate government of the whole territory of Kosovo, which is treated as undivided territory in UN Security Council resolution 1244, to which Belgrade has sworn fealty.

The European Union and the United States have made it clear that Kosovo will not be divided and that Belgrade needs to conform its efforts to the Ahtisaari plan, which offers a wide degree of self-governance to the north and other Serb-majority areas of Kosovo.  Pristina will no doubt be prepared to talk with Belgrade about how the Ahtisaari plan is implemented, but not about “Ahtisaari plus” or other efforts to reopen what has already been agreed by the Kosovo authorities.

I imagine that the European Council will want in December to approve Serbia’s candidacy for membership in the Union, as recommended by the Commission.  While there is some possibility one or more EU members will still block Serbia’s candidacy because of Belgrade’s failure to cooperate with UNMIK and NATO efforts to resolve border/boundary issues, I would much prefer to see those issues settled and Serbia’s candidacy ensured.  If Serbia fails to get candidacy in December, it may have to wait a long time for another opportunity.  I doubt it will get a date to start the negotiations—it does not even appear to want one.

In any event, I am certain that the Union will not accept Belgrade as a member until it settles all its outstanding issues with Pristina.  Little progress on these can be made before the Serbian elections, but I hope to see a government after the elections that can move expeditiously in a new direction.

The first law of holes is stop digging.  Belgrade would benefit from ending its diplomatic efforts against Kosovo’s recognition and sitting down with Pristina to develop a cooperative approach to implementing the Ahtisaari plan in north Kosovo.  It may be too much to ask Belgrade to recognize Kosovo’s sovereignty, but it is not too much to ask Belgrade to accept the legitimacy and authority of the Pristina institutions.  It can best do this by unblocking the Security Council and allowing Kosovo to enter the General Assembly.