Month: July 2013

The popular impeachment thesis

Turmoil in Egypt continues to engage analysts and policymakers. Last week, Dr. Mona Makram-Ebeid, an Egyptian academic and former member of the Shura Council, spoke about the current situation in Egypt at her “favorite think tank” in Washington D.C., the Middle East Institute. Ambassador Wendy Chamberlin, the president of the Middle East Institute, introduced the speaker and moderated the discussion.

For Makram-Ebeid, being in Egypt during the second revolution constituted “the most exciting but terribly dangerous days” of her political career. While she was skeptical that the Tamarod movement would in fact be able to gather 15 million signatures, she signed its petition.  Resigning from the Shura Council, Makram-Ebeid joined the millions of Egyptians in Tahrir Square calling for Morsi to step down.

On June 30, Makram-Ebeid was summoned for a meeting at (former) Minister Kafrawi’s house. General Fouad Allam, former deputy chief of Egypt’s internal security, as well as journalists and representative of various movements, were present. Minister Kafrawi mentioned that they have been in touch with the army, the Coptic Pope, Sheikh al-Azhar, and General Sisi. He added that the army had requested a “written popular demand” to intervene and prevent a bloodbath. The group present then wrote a request saying: “You gave everyone one week to resolve the problems and to come to a compromise, otherwise you would step in to prevent a bloodbath. So we are asking you to fulfill your pledges, because we are on the brink of a civil war and a real bloodbath.” The army intervened.

Asking whether Morsi’s downfall was inevitable, Makram-Ebeid replied that Egyptians view their country as Um al-Dunya: the mother of the world. It is possible that no government could have solved Egypt’s economic problems in a year. Nevertheless, any wise government would have instilled a sense of karamah, or dignity, among Egyptians. This is where Morsi failed. Not only did he not deal with the problems of poverty and unemployment, he also “was whatever the opposite of charisma is.” Egyptians felt humiliated at seeing him. This sense was compounded when Morsi installed his “cronies” in government offices, instead of forming a national government. Thus, while the Muslim Brotherhood’s downfall was not inevitable from the beginning, they intervened in the military’s budget, instigated sectarian violence, and marginalized the judiciary, intellectuals, artists, women, Copts, and other groups. This resulted in their downfall.

Many wonder whether the revolution constitutes a coup. Makram-Ebeid responded by asking: “How important is this?… whether this is a coup or not a coup, it’s over.” It is not intervention, but rather inaction by the army that would have been criminal, she added. The army responded to the popular demands of Egyptians, as evidenced by the 30 million Egyptians who took to the streets and prevented a bloodbath, which would have jeopardized Morsi’s own life. Thus, Makram-Ebeid prefers to describe the event as a “popular impeachment.”

As to the US role in Egypt, Makram-Ebeid recommended that it should not support Egypt only to maintain peace with Israel. Rather, the US needs to push for a democratic and inclusive government.  It should also encourage the private sector and businessmen, and should even ask them to contribute more financial assistance and help reduce youth unemployment. What made America great, Makram-Ebeid asserted, is philanthropy. Moreover, the US needs to further engage different parties in Egypt and condemn the marginalization of groups such as women and Christians. Makram-Ebeid added that perception is stronger than reality. The prevalent perception in Egypt is America’s undeniable support for the Muslim Brotherhood. The US needs to change that.

Makram-Ebeid then added three things Egyptians need to do. First, they need to stop to the incitement and demonization of the Brotherhood. Egyptians should strive for reconciliation, not further divisions. After all, they worked together to bring the Mubarak regime down. Second, while General Sisi has several advantages over former General Tantawi, as he is younger, savvy, and trained in the U.S. (rather than the USSR), the military continues to have no real interest in democracy. It thus falls upon the seculars and liberals to unify under a common leadership and program and to implement the road map to democratization. And finally, the opposition needs to ensure that the transition period, run under military control, is as short as possible.

Ambassador Chamberlin then mentioned that democracy is a ground game. The youths of Tamarod have mobilized on their computers, but a lot of democracy requires getting into the streets, knocking on doors and building a party from the ground up. Should we expect to see that as a very important election approaches? Makram-Ebeid responded by saying this is an important challenge for Egyptians. After the 2011 revolution, everyone in Tahrir became an expert on the top TV shows, and no one was left to run for elections. Makram-Ebeid hopes this does not happen again. She wants the recent protesters to grow a grassroots organization of their own, rather than join an existing one. While she has nothing against elderly people, she wants to see some “fresh blood” in politics.

Asked if recent events could set a bad precedent by deposing an elected president who had lost popularity, Makram-Ebeid responded by saying this is unlikely. “This is not the Tea Party,” she added. Most Egyptians took lessons from the past 30 months, so such a move is unlikely to occur again. Egyptians would refuse any dictatorship. “Today, we have a past president, an ousted president, and no president.” This is in a country where presidents stay until their death or assassination, so everything is new for Egyptians, she concluded.

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Peace picks July 15-19

A busy midsummer week:

1. Real Politics of Iran: Views from Within, US Institute of Peace, Monday, July 15 / 2:00pm – 4:00pm

Venue: US Institute of Peace

2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.

Speakers: Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, Kevan Harris, Farzan Sabet, Daniel Brumberg

Iran’s June 14, 2013, presidential election produced a result that surprised many Iran watchers: a first round win for Hassan Rouhani. A long-time regime stalwart who favors a political opening at home and abroad, his election may signal the return of a more contentious politics—one that could limit the growing influence of the security apparatus or create space for a more productive Western-Iranian dialogue.  To probe the implications of these changes for Iran’s internal politics and its foreign relations, on July 15 the United States Institute of Peace will host three distinguished Iran analysts, one of which has just returned from Iran. Drawn from the United States Institute of Peace’s (USIP) Internal Iran Study Group, they will highlight a range of dynamics in the universities, opposition, the economy and even the security apparatus that often escape the foreign headlines. Daniel Brumberg, Senior Program Officer on Iran and North Africa at USIP, will chair this timely discussion.

Register for the event here:

http://realpoliticsofiran.eventbrite.com/

Read more

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Supercharge the EU

As Kosovo and Serbia are proceeding with implementation of their April agreement on northern Kosovo, it is time to look at the other remaining war and peace problem in the Balkans:  Bosnia and Herzegovina.  The country is at a standstill, its institutions inadequate to qualifying for European Union membership, its people annoyed and frustrated, its economy declining, its youth departing if they can, much of its society sharply divided along ethnic lines, and the international community puzzled as to what to do.

The best that can be said is that war seems unlikely, not least because no one cares enough.  The peace is not a warm one.

I’ve been inclined to think that there is nothing much that should be done about this.  Bosnia has a clear prospect for EU membership.  If it stews in its own juices for a while, its people should be able to figure out that the current crop of political leaders is not moving in the right direction.  Certainly the enigmatically named “baby revolution,” a protest movement precipitated by the government’s inability to solve even simple problems, and the parallel Prvi Mart effort to encourage voter registration across entity lines, suggest that the country’s more or less open society has potential for pressuring the leadership in the right direction.

In the meanwhile, a weak European military force (EUFOR) pretends to maintain a safe and secure environment while the civilian international community “high representative” created by the Dayton accords, pretends to preside (but no longer rules) over a dysfunctional state and its two entities, Republika Srpska (RS) and the Federation.  The RS leadership alternately defies and manipulates the EU, the Federation ignores it and the state government can do little to influence either one.

The trouble with the “hands off” approach is that things might evolve in a less salutary direction, as Kurt Bassuener has amply documented.  The European Commission, frustrated by the inability of the Sarajevo government to come to decisions, is dealing increasingly with the RS, the Serb-controlled 49% of Bosnia, ignoring the 51% (Croat and Bosniak-controlled) Federation.  It is natural for bureaucrats to deal with bureaucrats who can get something done, but the net result is that the EU is de facto helping Republika Srpska qualify for EU membership independently of the rest of Bosnia.  That has even been proposed as EU policy.

The EU thus risks precipitating the breakup of Bosnia.  That is not what it wants to do.  In its progress report at the end of last year, the EU commission made clear that it wants to negotiate membership with the government in Sarajevo:

The need for an effective coordination mechanism between various levels of government for the transposition, implementation and enforcement of EU laws remains to be addressed as a matter of priority, so that the country can speak with one voice on EU matters and make an effective use of the EU’s pre-accession assistance.

But actions speak louder than words.

What is to be done?  The successful EU mediation on northern Kosovo between Belgrade and Pristina shows a possible way.  By insisting on elimination of Belgrade’s parallel structures in Kosovo as a condition for giving Serbia a date to begin negotiations on EU accession, Germany gave EU High Representative Catherine Ashton enormous leverage with a Serbian government whose protagonists had little domestic support for flexibility on Kosovo.  Americans often complain that EU consensus decisionmaking leads to least common denominator outcomes.  But in this case Berlin showed that consensus decisionmaking can lead to a tough, even uncompromising, EU stance, so long as at least one member holds firm.

The EU could apply this lesson learned in Bosnia.  The best bet would be a coordinated maneuver by Berlin and Zagreb, whose July 1 entry into the EU makes it a power player vis-a-vis its southeastern neighbor.  Germany has long been a strong supporter of a united, democratic and multiethnic Bosnia.  Croatia’s interest in preventing Bosnia’s breakup is clear:  it does not want a rump Islamic state on its borders.  That is why even its nationalist first president Franjo Tudjman backed the Bosnian Federation (and wanted it confederated with Croatia).  Strengthening Bosnia’s insitutions and accelerating its entrance into the EU would protect the interests of both Bosnian Croats and Croatia.

Bosnia’s problems are above all constitutional, as its constitution establishes group rights and institutional constraints that render the Sarajevo “state” government dysfunctional.  The reforms needed have been known for almost a decade, at least since the Venice Commission outlined them with admirable clarity in 2005.

The EU Commission is loathe to make constitutional reform a condition for EU membership.  But EU member states can do it, as their approval will be needed for Bosnia’s candidacy and eventual accession.  If, in addition, Germany and Croatia insist that the state government in Bosnia must have all the authority needed to negotiate and implement the EU’s acquis communitaire, wholehearted implementation would solve 90% of what makes Bosnia dysfunctional.

The Europeans have been anxious to eliminate the American-invented (but always European-manned) civilian “high representative” responsible for implementation of the Dayton agreements (and armed in theory with dictatorial, aka “Bonn,” powers).  The Americans have balked.  They want to be certain Europe will do the right thing and not allow Bosnia to come apart.

If the Americans were certain that at least Zagreb and Berlin were unequivocally committed to constitutional reform and a sufficiently strong state government in Bosnia to negotiate and implement EU obligations, they would have far less motive to hold on to the high representative and his “Bonn” powers, who at the very least could be moved offshore and reduced to the role of ultimate guarantor rather than constant watchdog.  Once the needed constitutional changes are made, there would no longer be any reason for a Dayton-focused “high representative.”

Europe has done well with Serbia and Kosovo.  It can do well on Bosnia as well.  But a lowest common denominator consensus at of 28 members will not work.  Zagreb and Berlin, working in close consultation with Washington, could supercharge the EU and make good things happen.

 

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This

 

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Keep the aid and the influence

I expect flak for this, which was published last night by al-monitor.com under the heading “US should not cut aid for Egyptian military”:

The American reaction to the Egyptian coup (yes, it was a coup, no matter how popular) is schizophrenic.

The Obama administration, with significant support in Congress, accepts the new situation and is trying to make the best of it, pushing behind the scenes for the Egyptian army to re-establish civilian authority and move quickly to revise the Constitution and hold new elections, which have been promised within six months.

You’ll have to go to al-monitor.com for the rest, as they don’t allow me to publish the whole thing.

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Malala at the UN

She spoke today, her 16th birthday (it’s really too bad the audience were youth leaders and not adult ones):

Here is Malala’s text.

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