The problems of victory

I missed this July 15 Middle East Institute/Johns Hopkins SAIS event “After Fallujah: Security, Governance, and the Next Battle Against ISIS,” due to unanticipated travel. I was supposed to moderate. Paul Salem did a great job at that.

I enjoyed watching it just today. Jessica Lewis McFate worries about what happens in the aftermath of victory against ISIL, especially in Mosul, as it may open the way for a return of Al Qaeda. Doug Ollivant argues that real politics have begun in Iraq, with important dimensions of intra-sectarian and intra-ethnic competition/conflict. This is a good sign, one that might allow the emergence of cross-sectarian alliances and even lead to serious reform. Charles Lister is concerned about ISIS tactics as it retreats from control of territory and the Turkish/Syrian border, embeds in urban communities as well as in Lebanon, and confronts possible future US/Russian joint intervention. He also suggests we should not rush to defeat ISIS, because of the need for preparation for the “day after.” Robert Ford focuses on three R’s connected with undercutting extremist recruiting: screening of refugee returnees as well as jobs for them, the lack of resources for reconstruction of infrastructure and housing, and “ruling” (i.e. local governance, which is highly fragmented in the Sunni communities being recovered from ISIS).  

My compliments to all the panelists for a truly enlightening event!