Failure in the Oval Office

Emil Kerenji@EmilKerenji·17m A joke currently making rounds in Serbia. What do a Serb and an Albanian say to each other when taking leave? Next year in Jerusalem!

That’s the best local commentary I’ve seen on yesterday’s non-normalization agreement between Pristina and Belgrade. But I’ve had some other local comments worth recording, along with my own reactions.

Kosovars are relieved that the agreement implies no ethnically-based exchange of territories. Even the suggestion to study joint management of Gazivoda, the lake that crosses the border/boundary with Serbia, has aroused a vigorous, sovereignty-based protest from former Prime Minister Haradinaj, an essential participant in Prime Minister Hoti’s governing coalition.

Everyone is noticing the lack of serious implementation mechanisms as well as the degree to which the agreement gives the Americans what they want. The most important of these goodies is the movement of the Serbian embassy to Jerusalem, a provision that appears to have taken President Vucic by surprise and displeased him:

Some in Serbia think the country has enough problems without sticking its nose into the Middle East. Others will criticize Vucic for caving to Jewish demands.

Prime Minister Hoti won some prestige over internal rivals from the last couple of days in Washington, but at a price. Kosovo has also committed to establishing its new embassy in Jerusalem, a move that some Kosovars think will make its relations with the Arab countries more difficult. Designating Hezbollah as a terrorist organization could also be risky, as is the anti-Huawei G5 provision for relations with China, but more for Serbia than Kosovo.

Many Balkanites welcome what they view as the renewed commitment of the United States to the Balkans, but that is smoke and mirrors. There is really nothing in the agreement that suggests a stronger American commitment, and its failure to deal with the vital issue of Serbian recognition of Kosovo sovereignty and independence suggests the US did not use its full weight on the issue.

I asked two well-read and well-informed Americans this morning whether they had heard of the signing yesterday. They had not. The only thing that has attracted any (minimal) media attention here is Israel’s recognition of Kosovo and the commitment of Pristina to have its embassy in Jerusalem. I suppose there are some evangelicals out there who will take notice, but Grenell’s effort to boost the re-election campaign with a Balkans spectacular has failed.

Here is another good commentary on the President’s performance yesterday: