Month: January 2021

Peace Picks | February 1 – February 5, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  1. Human Rights and the Future World Order | February 1, 2021| 12:00 – 1:30 PM ET | Belfer Center Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here

The issue of human rights presents a special challenge for any effort to construct a workable world order. Can democracies and their publics remain true to their stated values within a world where human rights abuses are still widespread, without meddling into other nations’ domestic political affairs or presuming to know exactly how to achieve these ends globally? To what extent will differences over basic notions of human rights undermine efforts to cooperate on trade, climate, arms control, or other pressing global problems?

Speakers:

Hina Jialni: Former United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Human rights Defenders

Samuel Moyn: Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence, Yale Law School and Professor of History, Yale University

Zeid Ra’ad: Perry World House Professor of the Practice of Law and Human Rights, University of Pennsylvania

2. Maritime Security Dialogue: USN: Setting the Theatre in the Artic | February 2, 2021 | 10:00 -11:00 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies  | Watch  Here

Please join CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute for a Maritime Security Dialogue event featuring Admiral Robert P. Burke, Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe / Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples. This event will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program. 

The Maritime Security Dialogue series brings together CSIS and the U.S. Naval Institute, two of the nation’s most respected non-partisan institutions. The series highlights the particular challenges facing the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard, from national level maritime policy to naval concept development and program design. Given budgetary challenges, technological opportunities, and ongoing strategic adjustments, the nature and employment of U.S. maritime forces are likely to undergo significant change over the next ten to fifteen years. The Maritime Security Dialogue provides an unmatched forum for discussion of these issues with the nation’s maritime leaders.

Speakers:

Admiral Robert P Burke: Commander US Naval Forces Europe and Africa, Commander, Allied Joint Forces Command Naples

Heather A Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director for Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSI

3. Crisis Group’s EU Watch List: 10 Cases Where the EU Can Build Peace in 2021 | February 2, 2021 | 9:30AM-12:15 PM ET | Crisis Group  | Watch Here

The International Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of our EU Watch List, the yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.

Crisis Group Senior staff will join representatives from the European Commission and the European External Action Service to analyse the relevance and the policy suggestions of the ten cases presented in the Watch List: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.

The briefing will start with a high-level panel on global conflict trends, followed by a presentation of the Watch List with interventions from EU senior officials and Crisis Group Program Directors. A Q&A with participants will conclude the event.

Speakers:

Stefano Sannino: Secretary General of the European External Action Service

Richard Atwood: Chief of Policy, Crisis Group

Hilde Hardeman: Director, Head of Service for Foreign Policy Instruments, European Commission

Giuseppe Famà: Head of EU Affairs, Crisis Group

Elissa Jobson: Director of Global Advocacy, Crisis Group

Ivan Briscoe: Latin America & Caribbean Program Director, Crisis Group

Comfort Ero: Africa Program Director, Crisis Group

Joost Hiltermann: Middle East and North Africa Program Director, Crisis Group

Olga Oliker: Europe and Central Asia Program Director, Crisis Group

Stefano Tormat: Director, Integrated Approach for Security and Peace, European External Action Service

4. The Geopolitics of The Green Deal | February 3, 2021 | 9:00-10:00 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here

This event will mark the launch of the eponymous paper co-written by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations, as well as Jean Pisani Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra and Guntram Wolff of Bruegel. In the paper, the authors map out the geopolitical implications of the European Green Deal and lay out a foreign policy agenda to manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal and to lead climate change efforts globally. Join us as an invited panel provide their insight into the paper, chaired by co-author Guntram Wolff.

This event is organised in cooperation with Bruegel.  

Registration is not obligatory to watch the livestream. You are welcome to register if you wish to receive a reminder and updates about the event.

Speakers:

Anne Bergenfelt: Senior Advisor, Cabinet of Josep Borrell Fontelles

Mark Leonard: Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations

Simone Tagiapeitra: Research Fellow at Bruegel

Chaired by:

Guntram Wolff: Director of Bruegel

5. Syrian Requiem: The Civil War and its Aftermath | February 4, 2021 | 10:00-11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.

In their new book, “Syrian Requiem,” Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, draw on more than 200 specially conducted interviews to tell the story of the conflict in Syria. The authors detail the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, survey the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examine the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others.

Speakers:

Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy

Steven Heydemann: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy

Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studie

6. Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapons Transfers  | February 4, 2021 | 12:00 PM-1:00 ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Tim Michetti, an investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers, recently wrote a new Atlantic Council report, “A Guide to Illicit Iranian Weapon Transfers: The Bahrain File.” During this discussion, Mr. Michetti will present his report, which is a comprehensive, field-based case study on illicit Iranian weapon transfers. Following his presentation, he will be joined in discussion by Rachel Stohl, vice president of the Stimson Center; David Mortlock, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; Jay Bahadur, investigator, author, and former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and moderator Norman Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. 

Using findings from the report, the panelists will explore ways to improve mitigation measures to prevent illicit weapon transfers and strengthen the efficacy of arms embargoes. The discussion will explore how current international arms control architecture, sanctions enforcement mechanisms, and lessons from WMD non-proliferation may be applied to mapping and dismantling underlying networks that facilitate the international trade in illicit weapons.

Speakers:

Time Michetti: Investigative Researcher on Illicit Weapon Transfers

Rachel Stohl: Vice President for Conventional Defense, Stimson Center

Jay Bahadur: Investigator, Author and Former Coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia

David Mortlock: Nonresident Fellow, Global Energy Center

Moderated By:

Norman Roule: Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, Office of the Director of National Intelligenc

7. Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration | February 5, 2021 | 9:30-10:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace| Watch Here

Even with an agreement to extend New START, the Biden Administration confronts important policy choices regarding nuclear doctrine, managing nuclear tensions with Russia, China, and North Korea; which offensive and defensive weapons systems to retain, build, or eliminate; and how to pursue arms control. 

Speakers:

Michèle Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner of WestExec Advisors, and former Under Secretary of Defense

George Perkovich: Policy Expert of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program

Pranay Vaddi: Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Stevenson’s army, January 31

– NYT says Trump officials limited investigations of far-right activity.
– Both WaPo and NYT fact-check Biden and say he used misleading data on foreign contracts.
-RollCall says congressional staffs face brain drain to the administration.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 30

– NYT reports administration debate over troop withdrawals.– Pentagon reporter says Taliban claim victory.
– NSA Sullivan discusses Iran policy. Remember, Sullivan was a key player in this Carnegie report. I think it has many signposts to where he’s headed.
– FT has revealing interview with founder of Bellingcat, the NGO intelligence service.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 29

Bipartisan Senate group looks to rules changes short of ending filibusters.
NSC shifts from Middle East to China issues
BTW, China says Taiwan independence means war.
FEMA asks for troops to help in vaccinations.

DOD blocks admission of Trump loyalists to advisory boards.
DOD questions Taliban compliance with deal.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 28

– SecState Blinken covers many topics.
Here’s DOS transcript.
Freeze on arms sales to UAE, Saudi Arabia. Review of US troop shift from Germany. New team on arms control.
Rapid ouster of Trump loyalists. Controversy over new official handling Iran.DHS warns of domestic extremists.
Last week I praised new book on stealth technology, which raised issue of how much to disclose publicly. SAIS prof Tom Mahnken has ideas on how to handle such problems.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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A warm welcome to the no swagger Secretary of State!

Secretary of State, no swagger

Newly confirmed Secretary of State Blinken appeared at a press briefing today. The difference was dramatic. Secretary’s Pompeo bragged about his “swagger.” Blinken isn’t bragging and there was no swagger, just a deliberate and careful (though not over-cautious) effort to re-assert American competence and leadership. Blinken is not going to please those who won’t settle for less than hyperbolic denunciation of the Chinese Communist Party and over-the-top admiration for Russian President Putin, but he doesn’t mince words. He was unequivocal in denouncing Beijing’s genocide of Uighurs and Moscow’s effort to murder Alexei Navalny.

He was also anxious to allay the concerns of allies and friends, most of whom have found the Trump Administration little short of a disaster. Biden and Blinken see friendly foreigners as force multipliers, not burdens. They aren’t going engage in the Europe-baiting and South Korea-slamming that Trump’s people enjoyed. There will be differences with friends and allies, but this Administration will try to handle them calmly and professionally, not provocatively and counterproductively.

That will be true for individuals and issues as well. Blinken has already asked Zal Khalilzad, who has negotiated an agreement with the Taliban for US withdrawal from Afghanistan, to stay on. The Administration is reviewing a Trump decision on declaring the Houthis in Yemen terrorists that could hinder assistance to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Blinken praises Trump’s “Abrahamic” agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Israel and Bahrain, though he stayed silent on whether the Administration will stick with Trump’s decision to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, which was a change in US policy offered as a quid pro quo for normalization of Morocco’s relationship with Israel.

Blinken’s strong endorsement of the free press and its role in democracy is just as welcome as his calm and professionalism. In the wake of an administration that regarded the best of the press as the “enemies of the people,” it is truly a pleasure to hear that the new administration welcomes interaction with the press and public scrutiny. A warm welcome to the no swagger Secretary of State!

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