Friends in need can get you in big trouble

A young colleague asked some questions this week. I replied. I’ll have a longer piece on these issues and what should be done about them in the next day or two:

Q: What do you believe Dodik realistically hopes to gain from his increasingly alarming proposals to pull RS from the federal government and to establish parallel institutions in Banja Luka? As many have noted, complete secession is highly unlikely. Thus, is he trying to erode federal institutions to gain concessions for greater RS autonomy?

A: I wouldn’t rule out secession, if circumstances permit, but even if they don’t he is trying to achieve de facto independence.

Q: Is it possible that Dodik, as he’s done in the past, is making such claims in an effort to posture for the upcoming elections in 2022?

A: Sure, but more or less democratically validated politicians come under a lot of pressure to deliver what they promise.

Q: Over the past month, much has been written about the West’s loss of focus in the Balkans, and the resulting failure of its deterrence. Many observers have called for greater involvement from the West and its institutions. Few, however, have offered concrete suggestions on what the West’s response should look like. I am curious if you have any thoughts

A: You are seeing the emergence of one prong of Western engagement in the sanctions levied yesterday. I hope to see them extended to people in Belgrade and Pristina, along with clear US and EU denunciations of the authoritarian drift in Belgrade. More direct engagement with the issues, both in the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue and in the discussion of constitutional reform in BiH, could be another prong. So too could be a joint US/EU effort to monitor implementation of dialogue agreements similar to the International Civilian Office, which monitored implementation of the Ahtisaari plan after Kosovo independence.

Q: I assume that Dodik’s antics put Vucic in a difficult position. For one, he has to maintain the nationalists in his base by continuing to act as the figurehead for all Serbs, and thus, at least apathetically, support the plight of the Serbs in Bosnia. At the same time, however, Vucic knows Serbia’s economic future lies with the West. Serious derailment of Dayton in Bosnia, especially with his public support, could further hinder Serbia’s economic future with the West. So, that leads me to ask, can Vucic play a positive role in mitigating Dodik’s brinkmanship?

A: Yes, and that’s what Brussels and Washington count on. But Dodik, like Karadzic, regards himself as a potential rival to Vucic in Serbia, not only as a provincial chieftain in Banja Luka. With Russian encouragement, Dodik may go further than Vucic would like.