Month: October 2023

Stevenson’s army, October 30

– NYT has good summary of Israeli failures before Oct 7.

– NBC says US defense spending hasn’t boosted jobs much.

-Why US hasn’t ratified UNCLOS came up in class. A former student tells the story.

– Intercept says US is building secret base in Israel.

– Politico tells how Russia colonized Alaska.

– Wapo says Ukraine has lost support by supporting Israel.

-WSJ says Trump plans for executive branch could go into effect.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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A difficult choice and an easy one

The questions of a “humanitarian pause” and an Israeli invasion of Gaza are often discussed separately. They are related.

No invasion means more bombing

We have to assume that Israel will not let Hamas off the hook. At a minimum, Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’ military capability. That can only be done by military means. If you want to see a “humanitarian pause,” the bombing will stop, but that increases from the Israeli perspective the need to go into Gaza to hunt Hamasniks. If you want Israel to stay out of Gaza, the bombing will have to continue and even intensify.

My own preference would be for the Israelis to stay out of Gaza. Urban warfare is difficult and deadly even without an extensive network of tunnels. Once in, the Israelis will likely find they will need to stay, unless they are prepared to see something like Hamas (or worse) return. The invasion, plus an occupation of a decade or more, will kill a lot more Israelis and Palestinians than the bombing.

An Israeli invasion of Gaza is also likely to trigger a wider regional war. Hizbollah in Lebanon, various Iranian proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are capable of launching thousands of missiles at Israel. If the Israelis can’t handle that, they will turn to the United States to help out. Intense American attacks on Iranian proxies could trigger war with Iran. That scenario is a nightmare to be avoided, even if some hawks in the US might welcome it.

Of course there is an option for no bombing and no invasion. But that won’t satisfy popular opinion inside Israel. Nor would it help Prime Minister Netanyahu stay in power. He is responsible for the intelligence and preparedness failures that allows Hamas to do what it did. As soon as the military action stops, political accountability will begin. He will try to postpone that day.

Stop the abuse

The easy choice is on the West Bank. There the Israeli army and ultra-religious settlers have been harassing and killing Palestinians with impunity, not only since October 7. That behavior infuriates Palestinians and Arabs everywhere. From Israel’s own perspective, this is counterproductive. It could also be dangerous. The dog that hasn’t barked is Israel’s own Arab Palestinian population.

Here too Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He has been unwilling to reign in the extremists of his own coalition. Nor has the broadening of that coalition with a few opposition politicians compelled him to do so. The Americans are speaking up against Israeli behavior on the West Bank, but so far with little effect. They need to make it stick.

Get ahead of the political curve

At the moment, the Israelis are both intensifying the bombing and entering Gaza at will, without however yet trying to hold territory there. But humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly and clearly require at least a bombing pause. Israel should combine that with a clear statement of restraint in the West Bank and a promise to deal with legitimate Palestinian aspirations once the fighting is over. But of course that would not help Netanyahu, so it is unlikely to happen.

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The dialogue is dead, so what’s next?

Since before 2013 the US and EU have sponsored a “political” dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia intended to “normalize” their relations. This effort recently has been based on a German-French initiative aimed at a “two Germanies”-type agreement. East and West Germany in 1972 agreed to “…develop normal good neighbourly relations with each other on the basis of equal rights.” The result for the Balkans was a Brussels agreement promulgated in February and an Ohrid implementation plan promulgated in March. Kosovo has accepted both and offered to sign on the dotted line. Serbia has rejected both and refused to sign.

Belgrade also sponsored an attempted insurrection in northern Kosovo on September 24. It was intended to precipitate a Kosovo police reaction that would justify a Serbian military intervention. Serbia has celebrated the insurrectionists, whom it armed and trained. Belgrade has not taken responsibility or apologized for the terrorist acts its agents perpetrated.

This brings to an end any serious prospect for progress in the dialogue as presently constituted. So what is next? First, a careful look at what went wrong is in order.

Misjudgments

The European and American diplomats misjudged Belgrade, which has always insisted it would not recognize Kosovo. This explicitly includes any “back door” recognition, which is what the recent “normalization” non-agreements intended. Serbia has continued instead to look for, or create, opportunities to control the four northern Kosovo municipalities with Serbian majorities. President Vucic attempted to negotiate their annexation to Serbia with former Kosovo President Thaci. He has now tried to create a pretext for annexing them by military force.

The Americans and Europeans also misjudged Pristina. They attempted to force Prime Minister Kurti to create an Association of Serb Majority Municipalities. That would provide Vucic with the control over northern Kosovo he has sought. While the Americans promised not to allow the Association to become a governing entity, they have not been willing to show how they would prevent that from happening or to guarantee it in a formal governmental agreement.

Mistaken realignment towards Serbia

The Europeans have also failed to put their own house in order. Five European Union member states do not recognize Kosovo. This split in the EU has weakened its mediator, Miroslav Lajcak. In addition, Hungary, though a recognizer, has aligned itself with Russia and Serbia against Kosovo. The result is a lowest common denominator EU policy that is more respectful of Belgrade’s interests than Pristina’s.

The Americans have also aligned themselves more with Belgrade than Pristina in recent years. This appeasement was intended to move Serbia closer to the West and away from Russia and China. That effort has blatantly failed. Serbia has repeatedly preferred its military relations with Russia and its commercial relations with China over strengthened relations with the United States or Europe.

What would work better

First the Europeans and Americans need to correct their errors. This would mean rebalancing policy towards Pristina and away from Belgrade. It also means dropping overly ambitious goals. The Association and even backdoor recognition are not feasible, the former because of concerns in Pristina and the latter because of concerns in Belgrade.

The so-called “technical” dialogue that Belgrade and Pristina pursued prior to 2013 was far more successful than the “political” dialogue that came thereafter. It produced numerous agreements intended to improve life in both Kosovo and Serbia. Some have not been fully implemented. It is high time to return to those. Some may need revision.

To ensure implementation, the Americans and Europeans could form a monitoring group like the International Civilian Office that ensured implementation of the pledges Kosovo made at the time of independence. Such a group should include, in addition to prominent European and American leaders, Kosovo and Serbian government representatives as well as nongovernmental organizations. The aim should be 100 per cent implementation of the existing technical agreements and any additional ones reached.

One of the most important missing ingredients in relations between Serbia and Kosovo is personal contact. While at the leadership level they know each other well, the societies do not. The Europeans would do well to sponsor a major citizen-to-citizen effort, like the one that improved relations between France and Germany after World War II.

Postpone the politics

Some will be concerned that postponing the “final comprehensive agreement” would be a mistake. Certainly Kosovo needs recognition and United Nations membership as soon as possible. But it is not possible with the current political leadership in Belgrade and its alignment with Moscow and Beijing. Nor is the Association of Serb Majority Municipalities possible for the current political leadership in Pristina, especially in the wake of the September 24 terrorist attack. Both these agenda items should be postponed to the end of the normalization process.

The political situation is not “ripe.” There is no “mutually enticing way out.” Nor is there European and American will to ripen the conflict or create a mutually enticing way out. Conflict management types will recognize these as the necessary conditions for a successful negotiation. But there are lots of things to do other than final status. Without political will, the technical dialogue should be prioritized.

Stevenson’s army, October 27

– Senate defeated measure requiring US troop withdrawal from Niger.

– More on efforts to get around Tuberville holds

– House GOP are blocking PEPFAR funds

– National Review editor says GOP doesn’t really want to be in charge

– Public approval of Congress drops to 13%

– WaPo’s Josh Rogin quotes HFAC Chair saying US lacks legal authorization to fight Iranian-backed militias.

– NYT says Israeli government divided on invading Gaza

– Foreign Affairs reports on Gaza opinion on Hamas.

– WOTR writers reconsider views on infantry tactics

-Politico reports Arizona-Florida tomato war

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 26

– Politico notes the steep learning curve the new Speaker Mike Johnson faces.

Punchbowl has more details — but scroll down to learn of the possible change in standing orders in the Senate to get around the Tubervile holds.

– Politico’s ever-valuable NatSec Daily reports on the 3 plans the Biden administration wants from Israel before any ground invasion.

-WSJ says some Hamas fighters trained in Iran before the Oct 7 attacks.

– CBO has new report on long-term implications of defense budgets.

-Atlantic writer has background on FARA, including role in Menendez case.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, October 25

– US public support for political violence is rising. Here’s the survey.

Confidence in the media is dropping.

– WSJ says arms are flooding into West Bank.

– Fred Kaplan says US democracy promotion helped Hamas.

– US intelligence concludes Israel not responsible for hospital attack.

Mike Johnson is latest speaker nominee, notable for lead role in brief to SCOTUS supporting Trump election charges, also has opposed Ukraine aid.

– Johnson circulated a program showing completion of appropriations bills in winter 2024.

– On 61st anniversary of Cuban missile crisis Lawfare notes Congress had authorized force. [As I did in my chart showing authorizations of force  since 1789]

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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