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Ukraine’s opportunities and threats

Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats.

Opportunities still abound

The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words):

1. Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business with Russia.
2. Use Russian assets frozen in Europe and the US to fund Ukrainian defense.
3. End European dependence on Russian natural gas, as pledged, by 2027.
4. Integrate Ukrainian and European industry to produce more of what Ukraine needs.
5. Raise defense spending sharply.
6. Exploit any ceasefire to help Ukraine gain against Russia.
7. Provide military assets to Ukraine on lend/lease terms.
8. Improve Alliance interoperability.
9. Deepen relations with Ukraine through the NATO/Ukraine Council.
10. Encourage Russian brain drain to the West.

Carpe diem

Europeans, participants in the Forum thought, need to seize the day. Their political will has to match Ukrainian courage. Saturday’s visit of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz started that process. The Europeans joined with Ukrainian President Zelensky in issuing an ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire to begin Monday. So far, Russia has not accepted the proposition.

Having reappropriated the language of peace, the Europeans need now to reach out to the rest of the world. They also need to convince their own right-wing nationalists that Kyiv, not Moscow, merits support. Europe’s position should stay values-based but firm.

The Europeans also need to bring President Trump on board. The Congress is already restraining his worst pro-Putin impulses. The Euros should offer to acquire unique US capabilities and even to pay for deployment of US troops. They should also underline to Trump that peace through strength requires the US to do more for Ukraine. MAGA cannot make America great if it abandons Kyiv.

Russia’s future

The war with Ukraine has degraded the Russian military, compromised its intelligence, and devastated its economy and society. Even while advancing slowly on the ground, Moscow is losing the war. It has achieved none of its objectives. The West has not recognized its annexations or ruled out NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine.

While by no means guaranteed, defeat will open the possibility of a democratic transition in Russia. Putin will in any case eventually be gone. Moscow will then have to reconsider its relations with the West. We can hope the Russians will opt for improvement.

The threats are still real

Putin has gone too far to compromise now. His overall objectives have not changed. He wants to eliminate an independent Ukraine. A successful democracy on Russia’s borders is a threat to his regime. If Ukraine loses, Moldova and Lithuania will be next. Appeasement will encourage further aggression. Putin isn’t an idiot or crazy but rather a determined bully. He wants to impose his own rules to make the world safe for kleptocratic autocracy. The closing of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe are precisely what he wants.

NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee is the only thing that will stop him. But President Trump’s attitude toward NATO, including threats against Greenland, make Europeans doubt that he will do what it requires.

Even if the war ends, the fighting will go on through hybrid warfare. Russia and China will remain allied. Trump’s efforts to separate them will fail. The US should not promote a division of labor that assigns Europe to the Europeans and Asia to the Americans. That would divide the Alliance and limit Europe’s support in Asia.

Putin has effectively used nuclear blackmail to limit US aid to Ukraine. He has also promoted grievances in the West that threaten democratic governance and aim to make autocracy look more attractive. He will continue these successful efforts.

On balance

While the mists of war are still hiding the outcome, Ukraine is far from defeat. Even if Russia could occupy the whole country, which it can’t, many Ukrainians would resist. Putin’s best bet now is a Georgia-style political takeover of Ukraine by forces friendly to Moscow. But that gets less possible with every day of continued conflict. Killing people because of their identity strengthens that identity. Ukrainians are feeling more Ukrainian, not less, due to the war.

Russia is at the point of diminishing returns. Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin’s threat to Ukraine will prevent war elsewhere. That is a worthy cause.