peacefare.net

Even with a ceasefire, the war will continue

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia failed again today. The Russians agreed to exchange dead bodies but nothing more. They want full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four provinces Moscow has annexed before agreeing to a ceasefire.

Why go on?

These peace talks are going nowhere. Why continue? Their purpose is to convince President Trump and the Congress that President Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. President Zelensky wants the monkey off his own back. He wants President Trump to weigh in against Putin.

Trump isn’t yielding. While feigning exasperation with Putin, he does nothing serious to punish Putin’s intransigence. He has so far refused to tighten sanctions, impose tariffs, or increase weapons supplies to Ukraine. Much of the Congress is ready to do all those things. But few Republicans will buck Trump if it comes to a vote.

What about the Europeans?

The Europeans have mouthed more willingness. But so far their actions have not lived up to the promise. As Emma Ashford notes, the focus on their willingness to contribute troops to ceasefire monitoring is top priority. They should use frozen Russian funds and ramp up military production in both Europe and in Ukraine . They should also do much more to tighten sanctions by preventing transshipment of their products from third countries to Russia.

There really is no need for European peacekeepers in Ukraine if a serious ceasefire comes into force. Moscow and Kyiv can jointly monitor a ceasefire, provided there is political will. A European force amounting to no more than 20,000 on a more than 1200-mile confrontation line is a token. And that doesn’t include the 674-mile border with Belarus. In 2022, the Russians launched the attack on Kyiv from there.

The main issue in Ukraine is ensuring that Kyiv has the resources it needs to stop the slow Russian advance. That should include long-range fire capabilities to disrupt the Russian rear. The Ukrainians are demonstrating that they have the intelligence to do that well, even with their own drones. More long-range artillery and missiles would help.

It would also be nice if the Ukrainians could break through Russian lines. They did that in 2022 near Kherson and Kharkiv. In 2024 they did it again in Russia’s Kursk province. I find it hard to believe the Russian lines will hold if there is a major breakthrough.

When will it end?

President Putin remains committed to his war aims in Ukraine. These include not only the entire territory of the four provinces Moscow has already annexed, in addition to Crimea. Moscow also aims to control Kyiv’s choice of allies. There is no way Ukraine can accept such an outcome. Nor would Europe want it to.

During my visit to Kyiv last month, I found unanimity among the Ukrainians I talked with on few issues. But one of them was whether the war would end soon. Even if a ceasefire happens, they expect Putin to continue to seek control over all of Ukraine. He knows he can’t do that by political means, as he is trying to do in Georgia. If he were to disappear, the Ukrainians expect a non-democratic regime in Moscow to continue the effort. The war will continue.