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Trump caused this Israeli war with Iran

Tonight’s Israeli attack on Iran is not a one-time thing. Nor is it a matter of days, as the press is reporting. Assuming the Islamic Republic stays in place, this attack will encourage Iran to try to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran will think that will make it immune.

Israel will need to attack repeatedly over months and years to prevent that. Iran will respond in kind. The consequences for both countries will be catastrophic. The region and the rest of the world will not be insulated. The geopolitical era of might makes right has reached a new low.

Israel impatient, Iran provocative

Prime Minister Netanyahu won a crucial vote in his parliament today that would have brought down his government. He chose not to risk another. Instead he launched an attack said to be on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Some of the video I’ve seen looks a lot more like office buildings downtown. They could be collateral damage, or headquarters facilities. Now besides the Gaza war Netanyahu has another to keep himself in power.

Yesterday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censured Iran for not complying with its non-proliferation obligations. Tehran had failed to account for uranium traces in locations that had not been disclosed as used for nuclear purposes. Many have suspected these to be traces of a nuclear weapons program known to have existed until 2003. Maybe also thereafter.

In response to the censure, Iran vowed to build new, more advanced, enrichment facilities. It had already accumulated a significant amount of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium.

The US/Israel angle

The Americans are saying they will not support the Israeli attack by military means. But that doesn’t mean Washington won’t help Israel protect itself from the Iranian response. There is a real risk the US could end up in another Middle East war.

President Trump had wanted a new nuclear deal. He at times has left the door open to Iranian enrichment, or perhaps participation in an international enrichment consortium. The Israelis wanted none of that.

The deal Trump sought would have required irreversible lifting of sanctions on Iran, which Israel also did not want. An negotiated outcome will now have to await the mutually hurting stalemate that can only come after death and destruction. Even then, it is hard to picture a mutually enticing way out. Neither the Islamic Republic nor Netanyahu’s Israel will want to agree with the other.

Tighten your seat belt

We are in for a rough ride. Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal allowed the Tehran to enrich a lot of uranium. That would not have happened if the deal had continued. Iran’s enrichment beyond the limits of the 2015 deal is the proximate cause of today’s attack. It’s not just the world that’s dangerous. Trump caused this Israeli war with Iran. Add this war to his already long list of failures in his second term.