peacefare.net

Diplomacy needed to restore security for all

If you haven’t seen it already, the interviews above with Wendy Sherman and Vali Nasr strike me as eminently level headed. Bottom lines: negotiations no longer, regime change unlikely, more and escalating war, Iran will press ahead to get nuclear weapons.

Regional implications

They don’t deal with the regional implications, except for mentioning Saudi denunciation of Israel for the attack on the “brotherly” Islamic Republic of Iran. But Gulf Arab sympathy with Iran will not go much further. The Saudis and the other Gulf monarchies will not be unhappy to see Iran’s nuclear program decimated. Turkey is likewise opposed to the Israeli attack, but it too was uncomfortable with Iran’s nuclear progress.

Perhaps the clearest sign of the regional reaction is what won’t happen. There will be no oil embargo or other concerted action. Improvement of relations with Israel will stall, but that’s about as far as things will go. If Iran were to have serious military success against Israel, things might be different. But with its air defenses ineffective and mostly destroyed, that isn’t likely to happen. And Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t the only regional leader who would like to see the Islamic Republic collapse.

Impact on the US and Europe

Oil prices are up 7%, but at $72 or so still below where they were 6 months ago and stabilizing. That is well within the realm of tolerable in both Europe and the US. Only if Israel attacks Iran’s oil production facilities will the price jump further into the painful range. That’s one reason the Israelis haven’t done it. Besides, if they want regime change it would be a mistake to hamper the new regime financially.

The increase to $72 will give Russia some extra rubles, but not a whole lot. In the rest of Europe, consumers will see only small percentage increases, as energy supplies are heavily taxed. Even in the US, lax market conditions mean little serious increase for now.

Iran and Russia are now military allies who supply each other with weapons. Tehran may find it more difficult, or perhaps just less desirable, to supply drones and ammunition to Moscow. Russia’s military production is already stretched tight and won’t be able to help Iran much.

President Trump is cheerleading for the Israelis now, after having tried unsuccessfully to prevent their attack on Iran. That will bring unwanted attention to US troops and travelers in the Middle East. It may also precipitate incidents inside the US. If Israel gets into trouble, the Americans will need to provide more assistance. But that seems unlikely.

The balance of power

The Israelis have enfeebled Iran. Hamas is in a cage. Hezbollah is decimated. The Houthis are still active, but on a minimal scale. Iran itself has lost its air force, its air defenses, much of its senior military leadership, key scientists and engineers. Tehran’s only quick route to restoring deterrence is nuclear weapons. If they can, they will.

That will incentivize Turkey and Saudi Arabia to follow suit. Egypt won’t want to be left behind. The Israelis already have nukes. A nuclear Middle East is not a secure Middle East. You can hope nothing bad will happen, but hope is not a policy. Only tough-minded diplomacy can restore security to all.