peacefare.net

Careful what you wish for

The Balkans are aflutter because President Trump mentioned the region. He apparently said on his social media platform:

During my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were in a fierce dispute, as they have been for decades, and this long-standing conflict was ready to escalate into war. I stopped it. Biden damaged the long-term chances with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it again.

This is thin gruel, even by Trump’s MAGAte standards. While I agree that Biden made stupid decisions, Trump did not prevent war in his first term. And any effort he makes now could cause even more damage.

What Trump will try

I say this because of Trump’s inclination towards partition of Kosovo. His Balkan whisperer, Ric Grenell, thinks that is a great idea. He’ll offer it up as an exchange of territory. Serb-majority northern Kosovo would go to Serbia and the Albanian-majority municipalities of southern Serbia would go to Kosovo. Sounds neat, especially if you are an ethnic nationalist. Trump and Grenell are committed ethnic nationalists of the white supremacist variety.

But Serbia won’t agree to partition. It prefers to hold onto all of southern Serbia, where a main road to Thessaloniki and the Mediterranean runs. That’s why Belgrade is doing it’s best to move the Albanians out. So this is a classic bait and switch: offer exchange, get partition. Prime Minister Kurti, or his successor, would do best not to allow any discussion of exchange on the agenda.

What Serbia and Kosovo should try to do

Neither Serbia nor Kosovo really needs help from the likes of Ric Grenell or Donald Trump. The dialogue in recent years has sought to normalize relations between them without mutual recognition. That has failed. The entire political dialogue since 2013 has produced little to nothing.

The technical dialogue that preceded that effort, and has continued sotto voce, has produced a great deal more. While everyone pooh-poohed it at the time, a country dialing code for Kosovo, mutual recognition of documents, sorting out electrical supplies and payments, integrated border controls–these are things that make a real difference to real people. At this point, Belgrade and Pristina know each other well enough to proceed on technical issues even in the absence of EU mediation. If the political will exists, they should do it.

EU issues

At the same time, Belgrade and Kosovo both have their own issues with the EU.

Belgrade is stalled in the accession process. It needs to figure out with Brussels how to get restarted. That should include as a priority implementing the agreement and its implementation annex supposedly reached in 2023. President Vucic refused to sign, but the EU is writing the commitments into the accession process. He’d do well to quietly implement.

Kosovo is still suffering under unjustified EU sanctions for actions no one really remembers. But they helped to stabilize the situation in the north and demonstrated the professionalism of Pristina’s security forces in the face of Belgrade’s concerted destabilization efforts. Brussels has begun the process of easing the sanctions. It should finish as soon as possible.

How about the US?

Even a fully qualified US President would have many things to think about right now before getting to the Balkans. An addled President Trump can do little more than claim credit for things he hasn’t done and promise more. But he is failing everywhere: Gaza, Iran, Ukraine, and trade are all a mess. His incoherence is not healthy. Careful what you wish for. My advice to those who think they need American help is this: don’t ask. Handle it yourselves.