No one gets all they want
One thing we know: the US successfully launched 14 (!) of the biggest bunker busters at three Iranian nuclear strikes. The massive strike force of more than 125 warplanes encountered no resistance. There were no US losses.
We don’t know a lot more. It will take time to learn the extent of bomb damage and the Iranian response. The Americans did not use my suggested approach.
What the US wants
The Americans are looking for Iranian agreement to end their uranium enrichment efforts. That is unlikely so long as the Islamic Republic remains intact. Iran has insisted for decades that it has a right to enrich uranium that it will not give up. The Supreme Leader could change his mind, but agreeing to give up enrichment would likely trigger moves within Iran to displace him.
The Americans have said they are not looking for regime change. But if Iran continues to defy demands that it give up on enrichment, regime change could become the result. That’s a problem, as regime change could go in the direction of more defiance, not less.
Lots of Americans did not want to go to war with Iran. They can hope this raid will be the end of it, as the Trump Administration is suggesting. But there is no guarantee of that. Iran may race to reconstitute its nuclear program. It likely has at least one secret site from which to do this. The US may need to continue building and using bunker busters.
What Iran wants
The Supreme Leader’s first concern will be regime preservation. That will dictate a show of willingness to negotiate. But giving up on uranium enrichment is not in the cards.
Ayatollah Khamenei favors deliberate responses, but it is difficult to imagine he will do nothing. The Iranians will seize opportunities to harm Americans, both troops and civilians. With Gaza’s Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis constrained and diminished, Tehran will look to its proxies in Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces for help. The Iranians can waste a few missiles targeting the Americans there and in Syria. The Iranians may also activate terrorist cells around the world, including in the US, to harm Americans.
None of that will help Iran much in current circumstances. Tehran today is weaker than it has been at any time since the 1980s war with Iraq. A wise leader in Tehran might want to rebuild and attack sometime in the future. That would not however satisfy the militants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. They will want to shed American blood sooner rather than later.
What the Israelis want
The Israelis are pleased. They have sucked the Americans into a war Washington wanted to avoid. And they have gotten the kind of massive attack on nuclear sites that has the best chance of causing serious harm.
Prime Minister Netanyahu got the war, and the results, he has sought for decades. He has made no secret of his hope for regime change, but even without it Israelis will see him as having succeeded. Destruction of Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity is a big triumph.
But the war may continue for a long time. Iranian missiles are increasingly penetrating Israel’s air defenses. Iran’s widely dispersed, well-hidden, and mobile missile inventory is still substantial. Israelis are not going to be happy if they are still dodging Iranian attacks in six months. Even Hamas and Hezbollah still have missiles, despite many months of Israeli dominance in the air and on the ground.
Net results
Odds are no one is getting all they want. I am guessing the Americans will have to repeat their attacks, perhaps many times. US troops and citizens will get wacked. The Israelis won’t get the kind of regime change they want and will find themselves under a barrage of Iranian attacks for months or years to come. The Iranians will lose their enrichment capabilities even as their regime becomes more belligerent and militaristic.
There is little hope of a brighter scenario for the Middle East, despite positive developments in Syria and Lebanon. Even those are a dead cat bounce after dramatic falls. The “narrow path” to a New Middle East is looking rocky as well as narrow. The Trump Administration has systematically dismantled the programs that are needed not only in Lebanon and Syria but also in Libya and Yemen. Military force, not diplomacy, is prevailing. More devastation will be the result.
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