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Diplomacy should follow the 12-day war

Former IAEA inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes:

As the ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues, the new reality is characterized by some critical certainties and uncertainties.

Certainties:

1. The Israeli and US bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities have caused significant damage to its nuclear program.

2. Tehran has expelled the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, suspending indefinitely inspections of its nuclear program. But Iran remains a member of the IAEA and party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

3. Tehran’s regime remains in place, enjoying enhanced internal popular and military support. Moscow and Beijing have also confirmed their strategic alliances with Tehran.

Uncertainties:

1. Indeterminate loss of knowledge on Iran’s nuclear program, resulting from the suspension of IAEA inspections by Tehran.

2. This knowledge was already incomplete, based on confirmation of Tehran’s nuclear declarations and not of their completeness. It did not cover potential clandestine nuclear material, facilities, and activities.  

3. The current quantitative and qualitative level of Iran’s uranium enrichment is unknown. Did Iran rescue its highly enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges, to what extent and where? 

4. Whether Tehran will remain party to the NPT and eventually continue nuclear inspections is unpredictable.

5. Next Israeli and American moves to obliterate Iran’s potential nuclear weapons capability are vague.  

Implications

The military operations and subsequent ceasefire were a high-risk undertaking. It was based on the expectation Iran would not withstand maximum pressure, abandoning at least its controversial nuclear activities.

However, Tehran had already resisted strong pressures after the 2018 US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). This suggests incredible resilience and strategic persistence in continuing its controversial nuclear program. Iran may try to reconstitute its nuclear capability. However, this time the program would most probably include a declared, not just a possible, military dimension.

A new attack could lead to all-out war with tragic and irreversible consequences. War in areas with nuclear processing facilities could result in radioactive contamination of the environment. Or, in case of an attack to the Bushehr nuclear power reactor, to a Chernobyl-type nuclear catastrophe.

Revival of a serious diplomatic process is a necessity. Iran’s possible exit from the NPT will encourage would-be proliferators. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Japan, South Korea, and others are watching attentively.

The United Nations’ global architecture for defending peace and security is severely endangered. Its credibility needs to be restored.