Day: July 16, 2025
Don’t be fooled
Rasha Gaddh of Al-Sharq News asked some followup questions after reading my post from earlier today. I answered.
Q: President Trump’s tone toward Russia and Putin changed following last month’s NATO summit and pressure from NATO allies urging him to commit more strongly to Ukraine. Do you believe this is the reason behind his shift in stance? What other factors may have contributed to his loss of patience with Moscow?
A: Trump is trying to fend off both NATO pressure and domestic political pressure to do more to counter Russia. He is doing so by pretending to get tough but in fact doing nothing substantial.
Q: Do you think Russia will comply with the threat and end the war within the 50-day deadline?
A: Russia will do everything it can to gain territory during the 50 days. It may then agree to a ceasefire, but not an end to the war, unless it has gained all of the territory it has already in theory annexed. Trump has already promised Putin no NATO membership for Ukraine.
Q: If the deadline passes without Russian compliance, what actions is the U.S. administration likely to take? What kind of sanctions might be imposed on Russia, and in which sectors?
A: I doubt Trump will do anything serious. He is committed to strengthening Russia.
The key to sanctions is to end Russian use of a “ghost fleet” to export oil and to end transshipment of goods to Russia from Europe and the US through former Soviet republics.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Trump’s head fake on Russia
President Trump says a lot. But what it means is often hard to understand. Max Boot interpreted his comments on Ukraine above as a hardening of his attitude toward Russian President Putin. But their real meaning was the opposite. Despite Putin’s behavior, Trump is signaling that he will resist efforts to harden US policy. He will continue to tolerate Russian attacks on Ukraine.
The threats
The threat is unclear. Tariffs on Russia won’t make a dent, since Russia exports only about $3 billion to the US. Trump mumbles about imposing 100% tariffs on countries that trade with Russia. That would mean first and foremost China and India, Russia’s main trading partners. We know he isn’t going to do that with China, since he has already lowered tariffs he imposed on China. The Chinese blocked the export of rare earth minerals in response, panicking the US auto industry. Nor will he do it on India. The US is trying to wean New Delhi away from its close relationship with Russia.
The threat is also delayed. Fifty days is a long time. Delaying action, but seeming to promise it, will help fend off Congressional moves to impose tough sanctions on Russia. Trump forgets most of the promises he makes to do something in two weeks. Putin understood and ramped up attacks on Ukraine. Even if Trump were serious, Russia would want to do as much damage as possible before the ceasefire.
Thus the net effect of these comments is the opposite of how they sound. They encourage Putin:
Weapons supplies
Trump also said he would sell arms to NATO for transfer to Ukraine. This, too, sounds anti-Russian. But it is the opposite. The US used to give arms directly to Ukraine. Europe will now pay for them. Putin understands well that this will reduce the flow of weapons to Ukraine, not increase it.
Fortunately, the Europeans are clever. They are investing in expanding Ukrainian arms production, which has suffered from lack of financing. This makes a lot of sense. But it is not a quick solution.
Diplomacy
Meanwhile, Putin is getting other signals from Washington. The State Department is RIFing the people who document Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity:
The Russian President doesn’t really care about what the State Department is documenting. But getting rid of it tells him what he needs to know about Administration policy.
Trump is not serious about hardening the approach to Russia. It’s a head fake. Don’t be fooled.
RSS - Posts
