The long, difficult road ahead
I’ve been skeptical of the Gaza peace deal, which is in the first stage of its implementation. So here is a much more optimistic outlook, from an impeccably well-informed source (Gershon Baskin).
First stage appears has started well
With President Trump preparing to leave for Cairo and Jerusalem, the first stage of the agreement is going well. Israeli forces have withdrawn as planned, and Palestinians are returning to whatever remains. Massive amounts of humanitarian aid are set to enter Gaza. Those are all unilateral actions.
The exchange of hostages and prisoners is slated to start Sunday or Monday. Hamas and Israel are exchanging lists. That step is more complicated, as it requires careful coordination and some degree of mutual confidence. Nevertheless, the commitment on both sides seems solid.
There is silence so far on the fate of Hamas and its weapons. That suggests the Israelis are prepared to let its remaining militants survive. Rumors of amnesty are circulating if they forswear violence. Hamas long ago decided to give up its governing responsibilities. It hasn’t surrendered, so it will evaporate.
Next up
The deployment of a peacekeeping force will begin the next phase. The Egyptians, Qataris, and Turks are preparing to deploy. Indonesia and the UAE are possible too. They will need to get there fast to prevent revenge, property theft, and other crimes. Stabilization and reconstruction in the past has often observed a “golden hour” in the aftermath of a peace agreement. In this case, I would guess it will be more like a golden ten minutes. The Muslim forces will need not only to deploy quickly. They will also need to maintain a good relationship with both the Israelis and the Palestinians. That will not be easy, especially if spoilers emerge.
Smuggling of people, goods, and drugs is endemic to post-war situations. The sooner the peacekeepers get control of Gaza’s borders and seacoast, the better. Peacekeeper malfeasance can also be a big problem. I imagine the Egyptians aren’t getting paid as well as the Qataris. That could generate problems.
Setting up the civilian administration will be an even greater challenge. There are lots of experienced people. The Palestinian technocrats required are in ample supply around the world. Whether they will leave their jobs to take on a risky mission is not clear. Israel will try to block Palestinians and internationals who used to work for the United Nations. And it won’t be happy if the new administration simply adopts the health and education systems Hamas had created.
Where’s the vision?
Trump has given up on his Mar-al-Gaza vision for a resort without the Palestinians. But he has not replaced it with anything. Are the Americans going to imagine that Gaza can remain a virtual open-air prison? Or are they going to get Prime Minister Netanyahu to swallow the proposition of a Palestinian state? Is Netanyahu even going to be able to remain in power? If not, what will his successor project as a political solution for Israel’s long war with the Palestinians?
This moment is an opportunity, for sure. But it won’t last unless there is a vision for how Israeli Jews and Palestinians are going to coexist in the future. The Israelis are the victors for now. With authority comes responsibility. They need to make the politics work at least as well as they did the military.
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Dan – I too was skeptical at the outset. And I would not count on Trump to remain engaged. Hence, the burden for making this a success on the countries providing peacekeepers or peace stabilizers. Whether they are up for the task remains to be seen, but they at least have a vision of where they would like to end up.
Thanks, Dan, for sharing Gershon’s relatively optimistic analysis, but he barely touches on the West Bank situation and the central need for a Palestinian state. I anticipate concentration on Gaza for his golden 10 minutes. If the price Netanyahu pays to retain his coalition is again a free hand on the West Bank for Smotrich and Ben Gvir, however, tinder for the next explosion will be piled up. Trump’s 20-point plan offers little help: if the PA reforms ever meet Netanyahu’s standards, there “may” — not “will” — be conditions that could lead to some kind of path to eventually realize Palestinian self-determination. That offers another squinty-eyed process to people who have been promised that more than once. Is Trump the consistent visionary to make good on it? Are Arab states truly committed to keep Israel’s feet to the fire? Are the Europeans who have recognized a Palestinian state prepared to apply real pressure? It’s hard to be an optimist. That the killing stops and aid flows is good, but I fear that the approach to the larger problem of the two peoples’ need to co-exist promises only another version of the failed approach to “manage” rather than resolve.