Rebuilding Ukraine: Hopes and Challenges
I’ll be speaking at the Kyiv School of Economics Monday, also via Zoom. Please join:
🗓️ Date and time: May 12, 18:00–19:30 EEST (GMT+3)
📍 Location: KSE, Room 1.08 and online zoom
🔗 Registration via the link –
Contact person: Mariia Yurina, myurina@kse.org.ua
Reflect together on what Ukraine’s future can and should look like.
Please, feel free to share it and invite people.
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First impressions of a peaceful Kyiv at war
I arrived in Kyiv after 10 pm Saturday night, after the 12-hour train ride from Chelm, Poland and the 3.5-hour train ride from Warsaw. It wasn’t an entirely auspicious arrival. The driver who was supposed to meet me showed up late and the train arrived early. Only a Polish acquaintance with whom I shared a cabin on the train saved the night. His Ukrainian girlfriend got in touch with the driver. She also drove us around to the other side of the train station, where he had left his car. I’d have been plenty worried otherwise.
The city
Arriving here is like arriving in no other conflict zone I’ve known. All the lights were on. The McDonalds are open. The traffic lights work, the traffic is intense, and the driving is at mostly moderate speeds. There are no burned out hulks lining the roads. I’ve seen only one Tesla, but late model European, Korean, and Japanese cars are the norm.
Ukraine is a big country. The front lines are hundreds of miles away. Yes, the Russians target Kyiv with missiles and drones, but Ukrainian air defense shoots many down. Kyiv’s population was once close to four million. The few that get through do real harm, even when they don’t hit their target. But the damage is still small compared to the size of the city.
Kyiv sits on hills and is strikingly varied in its architectural styles. A walker finds it visually stimulating. He also finds good espresso never more than 100 meters away. There are few empty storefronts. Lots of restaurants and cafes. The Cyrillic script is impenetrable to those of us who haven’t renewed our acquaintanceship recently. But lots of signs are also posted in English.
Uber and Bolt ride services work here, and there are many buses. But I haven’t used anything but the Metro. Its stations are really, really deep underground and serve also as bomb shelters. I assume the Soviets built them to double for that purpose. The escalators are faster than a Washingtonian is used to. I see Ukrainians dancing to get on too. Purchasing tickets online is easy and fast. Googlemaps works fine, even if my T-mobile service is on the slow side.
The people
Caveat emptor: I am staying in a posh area close to the center and speaking with people only in English. I am also spending time talking to students, professors, and administrators at the Kyiv School of Economics. So my sample selection is toward the relatively well-to-do and well-educated. I’ve talked with only one active-duty soldier. All the rest are civilians.
The overall atmosphere in the street is notably calm and respectful. I haven’t seen even two Ukrainians quarreling with each other. Everyone seems determined to go about their own business without troubling others. There is no pushing or shoving even in the crowded Metro. Drivers rarely honk. Pedestrians wait for the walk sign to turn green and don’t J-walk. Is this discipline a hangover from Soviet times, a new European habit, or a reaction to wartime? I can’t tell.
One Ukrainian has told me it is a reaction to wartime. No one wants to provoke the hidden nervous tension that can explode suddenly.
The downside is lack of big city boisterousness. No street theater or music, no people hawking silly toys or fake Gucci bags, no begging or grifting. Only an occasional woman selling flowers or plants. If there are homeless people, they are not in the center.
War and politics
The war memorials here are like the Vietnam memorial in DC. They focus on the names and personal histories of individual soldiers, not on the generals.
The only battle highlighted is the unsuccessful defense of the Avostal iron and steel plant in Mariupol.
Ukraine lost that one three years ago.
People are tired of the war, which the years have normalized. It barely disrupts Kyivans own lives, but everyone has family members or knows someone who has suffered. They want it to end, but not with a Ukrainian defeat or the prospect of a renewed Russian invasion. What this means isn’t clear, but people think they will know it when they see it. Determined to fight on in the meanwhile, they appreciate American assistance and express disappointment with President Trump’s realignment with Russia.
Kyivans are also unhappy with their own political leadership. They worry about corruption and politicians more concerned with their own careers than with the country’s fate. They bemoan the country’s lack of preparation for war in 2022. Most I’ve talked to don’t want President Zelensky re-elected. They want change, but no one has named a preference. Most Ukrainian presidents since independence have lasted only one term, or less. The one who served two was no paragon. Zelensky will have served six years of a four-year term May 20. That’s due to the constitution’s prohibition on holding elections under martial law.
First impressions
First impressions can be wrong. But overall Kyiv seems to me an attractive, friendly, and well-organized place. Street signs declare: “Kyiv is waiting for you after the victory.” It’s a strange message to those foreigners who are already here, but somehow appropriate as well.
Next up: I’ll hope to have something to say about Kyiv’s cultural, educational, and governing institutions.
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Failure and disgrace in 100 days
As they Trump Administration approaches its 100th day April 30, the failures are glaring.
Failures
The most obvious failures are in negotiations. Trump himself laid out the agenda. He wanted:
- The Canal back from Panama.
- To buy Greenland from Denmark.
- Canada as the 51st state.
- Gaza voluntarily emptied and redeveloped as a resort.
- The Ukraine war ended.
- A better nuclear deal with Iran.
- Trade deals that would “correct” bilateral imbalances.
None of this is happening. The first three items are fool’s errands hardly worth discussing. The four later ones are more serious propositions.
Even winning would be losing
The Gaza-a-Lago proposition was a green light for war crimes. The Israelis are trying to force Palestinians out of Gaza. They are failing so far, but they will no doubt persist. This is egregious even from a religious perspective: Biblical Jews did not live in Gaza. No religion, certainly not mine, can approve displacing two million people to please a real estate developer.
Trump is proposing to end the Ukraine war on terms favorable to Russia. Why is not clear, but Moscow would keep the territory it has taken, including Crimea. Kyiv would have to recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Ukraine would get no security guarantee from the US, which would gain privileged access to its minerals. This is a bad deal, one that that will not end the war, even if Kyiv and Moscow sign on. At best, it will pause the hostilities.
The better nuclear deal with Iran is a possibility. That’s because Trump is prepared to lift many if not all the sanctions. Biden refused to do that, because Washington imposed some of them for human rights violations. The Trump Administration doesn’t care about those. So a better nuclear deal for Trump means American endorsement of the Islamic Republic’s oppression. Not sure that is what Americans really want.
The Administration claims to be negotiating tariff deals with 90 countries. Unless they lower tariffs relative to the previous Administration, they will raise costs for American consumers. The most important of the negotiations is with China. That will end with higher tariffs both on Chinese imports to the US and on American exports to China. Yes, the US government will gain some revenue, though nowhere near as much as the Administration claims. And most of that revenue will come from Americans. Inflation will accelerate. Recession looms.
The disgraces
Trump supports Israeli war crimes in Gaza, Russian victory in Ukraine, endorsement of Islamic Republic human rights abuses, and trade deals that raise prices and slow growth for Americans. Add that to attacking American universities, arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of immigrants, and canceling of vital scientific research.
The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it is succeeding in its disgraceful first 100 days.
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Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war
I’m traveling to Kyiv this week to give presentations at the Kyiv School of Economics on preparing for post-war transition. I don’t think that is likely soon. But whenever it happens, I hope readiness for it will improve the prospects of success. I’ll also be trying to understand how Ukrainians are thinking about the war and prospects for peace. That is in preparation for the revision of my 2019 book. From War to Peace included a rudimentary discussion of Ukraine in the final chapter. For the 2027 edition, I hope to do much better. I’ve already written a chapter on the country’s long and tortured history. Now it’s time to understand its present and future.
I undertook this trip on my own initiative. Initially I thought I would try for a Fulbright. But Fulbright Ukraine was closed even before the post-January 20 evisceration of the US government. Now who knows when, or ever, Fulbright will reopen. Having liberated myself from classroom teaching, I am free to travel whenever. The doctoral students I supervise are mostly in touch via Zoom, which works better for individuals than classes. Best to just go, not wait on unknowns.
The video above is from a recent appearance of Economics Nobelist James Robinson at KSE. I doubt he is right about Ukraine lacking a national project. But that will be one of the questions I’ll be probing over the next few weeks when talking with Ukrainians.
No it’s not safe
Security is job #1. Kyiv isn’t suffering as much as some of the front line cities like Kharkiv and Kherson. But I gather there are daily/nightly barrages of drones and missiles, some of which get through.
The sky is big, as is the city. The situation is unlike Sarajevo, where you had to know where to walk so you weren’t visible to the snipers. It’s more like Tirana during its 1997 chaos. There gunfire was frequent but random (and much smaller caliber than in Kyiv). I suppose I’ll learn more when there about which areas and times are more dangerous than others. But it is best to assume nothing is safe, especially at night.
Preparations are complicated
I’ve talked with people who have been to Kyiv recently. But in a conflict zone you never know what is available and what isn’t. So I’ll try to take everything I might conceivably need. That isn’t easy if you are determined not to check bags. Best to keep it all in tow, but to assume that the bigger bag could get separated.
So pills, computer, mouse, wires, chargers, power supplies, the right plugs. Health and communications are vital. All have to fit in along with enough underwear to last at least half the stay in Kyiv. That way I won’t have to do laundry more than once. It’s cooler in Kyiv than in DC, which means a few warmer things that take up far too much room. I’ll wear the bulkier stuff.
I’ve got my powerpoint presentations in draft. Of course they’ll need changes once I get a better feel for the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are vital.
Talking with people at war
Wartime is hard and instructive. People in Kyiv have suffered through more than three years of bombardment. That’s on top of the seven years since Russia seized Crimea and invaded southeastern Ukraine. In my talks, I need to give them an opportunity to express themselves. They know better than I do what their post-war goals will be.
I’ll be doing that through what some of you will know as a “yellow sticky” exercise. I’ll ask participants to write their top priorities for after the war on yellow stickies. Then I’ll group them on a wall or whiteboard. Ukrainian priorities may differ from those I expect. So I’ll need to be mentally agile and ready to adjust my presentation appropriately.
The orange elephant in the room
The Ukrainians will wonder what’s going on in DC, which under Biden was Kyiv’s best friend. I’ll tell them what I understand:
- President Trump has aligned himself with President Putin.
- Nevertheless the American people want to send more support to Ukraine:
Robinson has it right: American politicians have taken an illiberal turn. But American popular sentiment is still pro-Ukraine. This contradiction won’t be satisfying to Ukrainians, who have suffered mightily and have good reason to be disappointed.
They may press me on why Trump supports Putin. I can imagine lots of reasons:
- personal financial gain,
- blackmail for past behavior,
- gratitude for electoral support,
- admiration for Putin’s autocratic success,
- genuine (but sorely mistaken) conviction that Russia can be weaned from alignment with China, Iran, and other US adversaries.
I suspect all have some validity. But there is precious little evidence which factor is primary and which are secondary. I think we’ll know some day. But it won’t be soon.
Post-war Ukraine
The main challenge for me is to help Ukrainians think about their country post-war. Too many countries fight wars only to be disappointed, even when they win. That has been the case for Ukraine in the many past wars conducted on its territory. This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine irreversibly on its way into the European Union. If I can contribute to that goal, my trip will be worthwhile.
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Popular protests in Serbia target Vucic
Last month 300,000 people turned out in Belgrade in support of a student-led campaign against government inefficiency and lack of accountability. Last Saturday the government mustered 55,000 in response. President Vucic hopes to stem a tide that has already swept away the Prime Minister. Vucic will not have forgotten the protests that brought down his mentor, Slobodan Milosevic, in 2000.
The student edict
The current wave of mass demonstrations against the government started in November after a train station canopy collapsed Nis, killing 16 people. Prior anti-violence and pro-environment demonstrations had plagued the government in 2023.
The students issued an “edict” last month:
We, the students and free citizens of Serbia, gathered in the city of Niš, in a city that has witnessed new ideas and changes, in a city that has been a crossroads of history for centuries, and where freedom has always found its way, bring this edict by which we proclaim the values we are fighting for, as a pledge of the future and the state in which we want to live.
ABOUT FREEDOM
Serbia is a country of free people. Freedom is not a mercy, but a basic right inseparable from the dignity of every citizen. Freedom is the foundation of our democratic society, our laws, our speech and our thoughts.
ABOUT THE STATE
The state is the common good of all its citizens. The institutions of Serbia must serve the people and be a foundation of trust, not an instrument of the power of individuals. We stand for a state where the law represents the supreme authority and where political office means service to citizens, not privilege.
ABOUT JUSTICE
Justice is the basis of a stable society. An independent judiciary, free media and institutions must act according to the law and not under political pressure. Equality of rights must be a reality for every citizen of Serbia.
ABOUT YOUTH
Young people have shown that they are not only heirs of Serbia, but defenders of its constitution. Students, as bearers of this struggle, preserve the values on which our society should rest. The youth of Serbia is looking for a system based on effort and knowledge.
ABOUT DIGNITY
We stand for a society in which the dignity of every individual is respected. Dignity implies that no person should be put in a position of humiliation because of their views and opinions. A Serbia where experts are not underestimated and where knowledge is valued more than obedience, where young people see hope in their country.
ABOUT KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge is the foundation of the progress of any society. We are looking for a Serbia that invests in science, research, education and culture as the priorities of its development. Universities must be independent centers of excellence, not training grounds for degree-buying and political influence.
ABOUT SOLIDARITY
The roads of our cities, from Niš to Novi Sad, from Belgrade to Kragujevac, testify to the strength of national unity. This solidarity, hitherto unknown to systems based on discord, becomes our vow and our strength, which we will defend and nurture. By turning individual voices into a force for change, we proved that Serbia is not a collection of divided interests, but a community of citizens who share a vision of the future.
ABOUT THE FUTURE
Let this edict be our obligation, our promise to each other – that we will build a state that will belong to everyone, where every child will be able to dream big dreams. A country where justice and freedom will be stronger than any individual, where the government will not serve the people, but it will serve the people.
This is more vision than political roadmap. What is the theory of change? What needs to happen to satisfy the demands of the demonstrators?
No guarantee of change
Some of the opposition politicians are hoping the students will reinterpret their “no politics” pledge. The opposition wants a “technical” government to prepare the country for the next parliamentary elections. They are due in 2027 but could be held earlier. Presidential elections are also scheduled for 2027, when President Vucic’s second (and constitutionally last) term will expire. It is hard to picture Vucic sticking around for a serious technical government that would aim to eliminate election fraud and media bias. He has depended heavily on both.
Vucic has accumulated enormous informal power through patronage and abuse of state assets. He might be able to keep most of it by appointing a relatively “clean” (but pliable) prime minister now and in 2027 stepping down into the Prime Minister’s job. The first step he has already taken with the appointment this week of Đuro Macut, an endocrinologist without political experience. He might prefer amending the constitution to allow a third term, but for now he doesn’t have the votes that would require in parliament.
Vucic has weathered more than one wave of massive protests. The students have a popular vision of a more responsible and accountable Serbian government. They also have lots of people joining them in the streets. But they may have forgotten that opposition unity, US and EU support, and Milosevic’s hubris were important factors in his downfall in 2000. They need also to remember that Vucic has welcomed Trump family money to invest in Serbia. He is hoping that will protect him, at least from Washington.
The question is whether the demonstrators can assemble the forces to unseat a wily and experienced operative. The requirements are well known. Much as I wish them well, I don’t know the answer.
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What US aid will look like after USAID
This is the best I’ve seen justifying USAID on the basis of its benefits to the United States. Certainly its food and health programs were also important to the rest of the world. I think it hard to argue that we were doing too much. It is inexcusable that we are now headed towards doing too little.
Shifting priorities
But that is not all that is going to happen. Trump will want to maintain some of the food programs, which DOGE claims to have restored already. Those all too obviously benefit farm communities that vote Republican.
The Administration will also restore some of the health programs, like bird flu surveillance, that directly benefit the US. But Trump will shift the funding for these programs away from the universities and nongovernmental organizations that used to do most of the work. He’ll want the money to flow to profit-making companies willing to kick back campaign contributions.
At the same time, vaccine programs and programs that support foreign agricultural production will suffer. So too will programs that help foreign governments in the health and agricultural sectors. Not to mention cuts to programs for democracy, rule of law, gender equity, or other liberal ideals. Foreign aid tends to reflect domestic values. That was the main point of Project 2025’s chapter on USAID. It did not propose elimination, just ideological purification in the right-wing direction.
The reform AID isn’t going to get
I am not a diehard defender of AID as it existed before Trump shredded it. It was founded as an economic development agency. It had failed to adapt to a world in which bilateral aid has relatively little economic impact. Multilateral agencies like the World Bank have most of the money, especially when it comes to infrastructure. Not to mention the gigantic international flows of private financing, including remittances.
I thought AID needed thorough reform. I’d have liked to see it refocused on setting up the institutions required to manage a modern market economy. Instead it continued to support relatively small economic development projects that rarely had much impact beyond the immediate beneficiaries.
But Trump isn’t going to want American aid going to health and agriculture ministries, justice sectors, and anti-corruption institutions and campaigns. Never mind education ministries. These are precisely the institutions he is destroying at home. He won’t support them abroad.
What’s next?
What we are headed to is foreign assistance as a feeding trough for Trump’s friends, including right-wing nongovernmental (NGO) religious organizations. The staff required to maintain accountability is already gone. The Administration will aim to defund the UN and mainstream NGOs with experience in health, food, and emergency relief in favor of profit-making organizations. As promised in Project 2025, it will try to withdraw from conflict-affected countries with governments unfriendly to the US, regardless of the humanitarian situation. And it will hire new staff loyal to its right-wing social values.
In short, US aid will be a cash cow for Trump donors, a mainstay of autocratic regimes friendly to the US, and a major funder of rightwing ideology. That will be worse than the unreformed USAID Trump inherited. Everything he touches turns to dross.
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