peacefare.net

Egypt is in play

The Guardian this morning reports:

Morsi offered a series of concessions in a four-hour meeting with General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi on Tuesday, a Muslim Brotherhood source told the Guardian’s David Hearst.

All the concession were rejected, the source said. David writes:

With the caveat that this is information which can not be cross-checked with the other parties to the discussion, my understanding is that President Morsi offered the following political concessions:

The formation of a national government representing all parties

The formation of a neutral committee to change the constitution

A call on the constitutional council to speed up the law on parliamentary elections.

A new attorney general (he has already gone)

Obliques hints that if a plan was put to him to hold a referendum on his presidency, he would agree to it.

This package was rejected.

There are key differences between the opposition and Morsi on the way forward. The opposition now insists that Morsi has first to resign; that the constitution and the upper house of parliament are suspended; that revolutionary courts are established; and that a presidential council be established pending fresh elections.

The exchange shows where a political compromise may lie if the principle of not toppling a democratically elected president is upheld.

The key issue here is Morsi’s resignation.  He intends to hold on to his position as the democratically elected and legitimate president.  Some of those who want to see democracy in Egypt agree that his removal by the military or street demonstrations would be a terrible precedent.

This circle can be squared.  By sometime late this afternoon, the Egyptian military could conceivably broker an agreement that will disempower, but not unseat, Morsi and set Egypt on the path to a revised constitution and new presidential as well as parliamentary elections.

Failing that, descent into violence is likely.  The opposition is determined to be rid of Morsi.  The Muslim Brotherhood is armed.  So are many other Egyptians.  Some armed Brotherhood guards have reportedly already been arrested.  It would not take much to ignite a chaotic spasm of instability in a country already suffering from economic implosion and social tension.

Mohamed ElBaradei, who has been chosen as the opposition negotiator, is said to be meeting now with army chief of staff Sisi.  Rarely are negotiations more consequential.  Egypt is in play.