Category: Daniel Serwer
Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity
Former IAEA Safeguards Inspector Dr. Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
In May 2018, then President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Today, Iran is much closer to possible acquisition of nuclear weapons than at that time.
Facts
The fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran was recently completed.
Their continuation will convene soon. That is a promising development. The nuclear issue has fueled Middle East confrontations since May 2018.
Goals
Reportedly, Tehran would accept an agreement limiting its uranium enrichment and relevant material inventories. That would be in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. President Trump has also said he is ready for an agreement that would limit Tehran’s enrichment. In addition, he has threatened Iran with massive bombing if Iran does not accept his proposals.
Limiting enrichment could guarantee Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Trump did not, however, clarify whether he also aims at other goals. In the past, the US has sought to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability, ballistic missile program, and strategic influence in the region.
Israel is the third protagonist in Middle East geopolitical theater. It remains irrevocably opposed to any agreement that does not irreversibly destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. The powerful Israel lobby in the US often asserts decisive influence on Washington. It advocates a maximalist policy of unlimited pressure against Tehran.
The opportunity
There are reliable reports of Tehran making a remarkable proposal. Namely, the setting up of a regional nuclear enrichment consortium with Saudi Arabia and UAE, including US investment. This would be an alternative to shutting down its uranium enrichment.
Such multinational cooperation could be realized within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It would be the equivalent of the URENCO (Uranium Enrichment Company) plant, which the IAEA monitors. URENCO is a British-German-Dutch uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel consortium that operates facilities in Germany and Netherlands. URENCO uses centrifuge technology, as do the enrichment facilities in Iran.
Such a project would provide the participating States – Saudi Arabia, UAE, and eventually others in the region – with additional confidence in their ability to obtain nuclear fuel for peaceful nuclear programs. At the same time, the scheme would assure the international community that the countries involved are using the sensitive nuclear material exclusively for peaceful purposes. The stringent monitoring and verification regime of the IAEA nuclear Safeguards inspectors would provide that assurance.
History remains a wise teacher
President Trump’s decision to kill in 2018 the 2015 Iran deal was an obvious failure.
Lack of knowledge and planning characterized Trump’s previous negotiations in the similar case of North Korea. He made a series of controversial statements, exchanged letters of admiration with President Kim, and threatened “fire and fury.” After three in-person meetings, Trump left their Hanoi Summit in 2019 unexpectedly without any statement. Since then, North Korea has continued developing its nuclear arsenal completely uncontrolled.
We should by now have learned the lessons.
International anxiety is justified. Will diplomacy or war result?
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Winning the war with equanimity
As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in my earlier posts. Or where I would like to amend previous statements. The posts in question are First Impressions, Culture, Religion and Education, Ukraine’s Strengths and Weaknesses, and Ukraine’s Opportunities and Threats.
Culinary delights
Kyiv’s restaurants are really good and cheap for those who live on dollars or euros. I’ve enjoyed not only traditional and modernized Ukrainian but also Georgian, Crimean, Turkish, and Korean cuisine. I’ve even had a good American breakfast. French and Belgian are available, but neither really entices me these days. Italian we reserve for home and Italy. I haven’t tried the Mexican, but it’s here.
Street food is good too. Sandwiches are of all sorts, often on decent croissants or other good bread. Abundant cakes, strudels, and sweets are available everywhere. Coffee and tea are omnipresent, not only in restaurants and coffee bars but also at street kiosks. The ice cream is no great shakes, but McDonalds suffices in a pinch.
Street people, store fronts, and the economy
I am told beggars and homeless people are more common away from the Kyiv city center, where I am lodged. But my range is pretty wide–three miles in any direction is more or less my limit. I’ve done that in virtually all directions and found little obvious destitution. I won’t say it isn’t there. Just that it isn’t as evident as in DC.
Empty storefronts are also not as common as in DC, which has not recovered fully from the epidemic closures. While everyone here is hoping for an improved economy once the war ends, it doesn’t seem in terrible shape. GDP contracted slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 but projections until 2028 are for 5% growth. The main problem is lack of major investment, which is understandable in wartime. Ukraine will need to do a lot to attract foreign direct investment once the war ends.
Fashion
Most Ukrainians dress for comfort, not success, as do most Americans. If anything, street clothes in Kyiv are even more informal than in DC: sneakers, jeans, sweatpants prevail. Definitely not smart casual. Professors are mostly in that category as well. But in the evenings women sometimes appear in outfits that remind me of the strange fashions of Communist Eastern Europe. At the conference I attended, most of the men were accoutered in ties and suits and women in the equivalents. I was the odd one out there.
Equanimity
I continue to be impressed with Ukrainian equanimity. I still haven’t seen two Ukrainians arguing, but a few speeding motorcycles and non-muffled cars suggest youthful frustrations. Many restaurants allow you to pay your bill online without interacting with a waiter. That suggests a great deal of mutual confidence. Everyplace takes contactless credit cards, even for very small charges. No one gets annoyed with an American who can’t speak Ukrainian or Russian. We manage to communicate without too much fuss. Cell phones help.
Synagogue
Though not very devout, I went to Shabbat services at the only Reform synagogue Friday night. It was a modest affair with perhaps 20 participants, half a dozen of them on Zoom. The main rabbi was in Israel. The substitute rabbi spoke in Russian from Germany. One of the younger participants was assigned to try to help me, but her English was limited. So I joined the Hebrew when I knew the tunes, suffered rudimentary post-service conversations, and left without feeling much renewed. But at least I can testify that Reform has its place and adherents in Kyiv.
The trip home
I’ll be 12 hours on a jiggly train to Poland Wednesday. Then a 1.5 hour wait and another 2.5 hours on a smoother train to get to Warsaw late in the evening. Only to get up again well before dawn to fly to Munich and DC. So more or less 48 hours of travel.
I can’t say I am looking forward to the trip. But the experience here has been super. Seeing people face war and destruction with determination and commitment is inspiring. And I’m pleased to see how they go about their business with equanimity. I’ve heard some angry denunciations of Russian behavior, especially in stealing children from occupied areas of Ukraine. But nothing that went much beyond what the facts would support. Kyivans seem more concerned to maintain their own composure than to tangle rhetorically with Moscow. They want to win the war, not destroy Russia. The inverse cannot be said in Moscow.
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Ukraine’s opportunities and threats
Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats.
Opportunities still abound
The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words):
- Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business with Russia.
- Use Russian assets frozen in Europe and the US to fund Ukrainian defense.
- End European dependence on Russian natural gas, as pledged, by 2027.
- Integrate Ukrainian and European industry to produce more of what Ukraine needs.
- Raise defense spending sharply.
- Exploit any ceasefire to help Ukraine gain against Russia.
- Provide military assets to Ukraine on lend/lease terms.
- Improve Alliance interoperability.
- Deepen relations with Ukraine through the NATO/Ukraine Council.
- Encourage Russian brain drain to the West.
Carpe diem
Europeans, participants in the Forum thought, need to seize the day. Their political will has to match Ukrainian courage. Saturday’s visit of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz started that process. The Europeans joined with Ukrainian President Zelensky in issuing an ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire to begin Monday. So far, Russia has not accepted the proposition.
Having reappropriated the language of peace, the Europeans need now to reach out to the rest of the world. They also need to convince their own right-wing nationalists that Kyiv, not Moscow, merits support. Europe’s position should stay values-based but firm.
The Europeans also need to bring President Trump on board. The Congress is already restraining his worst pro-Putin impulses. The Euros should offer to acquire unique US capabilities and even to pay for deployment of US troops. They should also underline to Trump that peace through strength requires the US to do more for Ukraine. MAGA cannot make America great if it abandons Kyiv.
Russia’s future
The war with Ukraine has degraded the Russian military, compromised its intelligence, and devastated its economy and society. Even while advancing slowly on the ground, Moscow is losing the war. It has achieved none of its objectives. The West has not recognized its annexations or ruled out NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine.
While by no means guaranteed, defeat will open the possibility of a democratic transition in Russia. Putin will in any case eventually be gone. Moscow will then have to reconsider its relations with the West. We can hope the Russians will opt for improvement.
The threats are still real
Putin has gone too far to compromise now. His overall objectives have not changed. He wants to eliminate an independent Ukraine. A successful democracy on Russia’s borders is a threat to his regime. If Ukraine loses, Moldova and Lithuania will be next. Appeasement will encourage further aggression. Putin isn’t an idiot or crazy but rather a determined bully. He wants to impose his own rules to make the world safe for kleptocratic autocracy. The closing of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe are precisely what he wants.
NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee is the only thing that will stop him. But President Trump’s attitude toward NATO, including threats against Greenland, make Europeans doubt that he will do what it requires.
Even if the war ends, the fighting will go on through hybrid warfare. Russia and China will remain allied. Trump’s efforts to separate them will fail. The US should not promote a division of labor that assigns Europe to the Europeans and Asia to the Americans. That would divide the Alliance and limit Europe’s support in Asia.
Putin has effectively used nuclear blackmail to limit US aid to Ukraine. He has also promoted grievances in the West that threaten democratic governance and aim to make autocracy look more attractive. He will continue these successful efforts.
On balance
While the mists of war are still hiding the outcome, Ukraine is far from defeat. Even if Russia could occupy the whole country, which it can’t, many Ukrainians would resist. Putin’s best bet now is a Georgia-style political takeover of Ukraine by forces friendly to Moscow. But that gets less possible with every day of continued conflict. Killing people because of their identity strengthens that identity. Ukrainians are feeling more Ukrainian, not less, due to the war.
Russia is at the point of diminishing returns. Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin’s threat to Ukraine will prevent war elsewhere. That is a worthy cause.
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Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses
The Kyiv Security Forum last Thursday and Friday was a crash course in Ukraine’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Here I’ll do the strengths and weaknesses. I’ve already reported on other aspects of my experience here in Kyiv.
Unity and commitment are gaining advantage
Ukrainians, according to Rasumkov Centre surveys, believe in victory. But my conversations suggest that there are some nuances when it comes to defining victory. A minority are prepared to see the territories Russia occupies, especially Crimea, continue for now under Moscow’s rule. But even they would not accept recognition of Russian sovereignty, which would be a violation of Ukraine’s constitution. Trump was foolish to suggest it. Zelensky can’t do it.
Now that the minerals agreement has been signed, the tables are turning in Ukraine’s favor. Washington and Kyiv are more aligned. President Zelensky has reappropriated the language of peace and put the monkey on Putin’s back. He also learned how to manage President Trump. Better to say “yes, but let me suggest something” than to say simply “no.” The Russian economy is sinking. Europe is undergoing a strategic reawakening. And both Europe and the US are seeing the need to deter Russia’s territorial ambitions, which extend beyond Ukraine.
Ukraine as an asset, not a burden
Ukraine, rather than a burden to NATO, is becoming an asset. After independence, it reformed its intelligence services and refocused them on external threats. They have cooperated well with the West. Kyiv has the technology to attack deep inside Russia and the intelligence needed to use it. The Russian intelligence services still focus mainly on domestic repression. They are finding it difficult to plan and execute sabotage operations inside Ukraine. On the battlefield, Kyiv’s more innovative, higher quality weapons are still beating Russia’s advantages in quantity and manpower. Kyiv has also hit Russian proxies and forces in Libya, Sudan, and Syria.
Ukraine has good engineers who are innovating rapidly. Its designers, suppliers, and manufacturers are working closely together. They are bringing innovations to battle more rapidly than the Russians are adapting. The result is a mostly static front with little use of armor and air cover.
NATO last year provided $50 billion in military aid to Ukraine, equaling Kyiv’s own spending. The June NATO Summit in The Hague is an opportunity. The Europeans should make it clear to the US that they are taking on more burden. But still they need the US to supply some advanced weapons and security guarantees.
Disunity is the main weakness
The theme of the Kyiv Security Conference is “United Again.” That already tells you that disunity is an issue. The “again” refers to Allied success in World War II, which ended in Europe 80 years ago.
Within Europe, disunity comes in two forms. Right-wing nationalist governments in Slovakia and Hungary have tied themselves to Russia. And within many other countries right-wing political forces would like to do the same if they come to power. The Alternative for Germany and the National Rally in France are the two most important. This greatly complicates and limits European decision-making on Ukraine. No proposal at the conference received more applause from the participants than spending Russia’s frozen assets on Ukraine’s military needs. But that requires unanimity at least in the EU.
Divisions within the Alliance
Divisions within NATO are also important. President Trump is erratic. Europe is increasing its defense expenditures and is getting ready to deploy peacekeepers if negotiations succeed. But Trump could fail to provide needed assistance to Ukraine, or even betray it by returning to his pro-Putin stance. Despite some signs of a shift, US pressure on Moscow to negotiate is still minimal. The American negotiator, Witkoff, is unprepared for the task and lacks an serious team. Trump has given Putin far too many carrots. He still hopes to relieve sanctions on Russia and wean it from China, a fool’s errand.
Standardization within the Alliance is weakly implemented. While grenades are standardized in size, in practice the Alliance still produces 14 different ones. In both Europe and the US, military production capacity is inadequate. Neither has been willing to fund military production in Ukraine, which has excess capacity. With financing, it could produce twice as many drones as it does today. Europe has lots of soldiers, but few ready to deploy into conflict. Moscow knows this. It also knows the US wants to reduce its presence in Europe.
Russia won’t do what it says it will do
In thinking about a negotiated outcome to the war, one thought prevails among the Ukrainians, European, and Americans here. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses on the Ukrainian side, Moscow will not implement whatever it signs. The best that can be hoped for is a pause in the war. Conference participants believe Putin is serious about taking control of all of Ukraine. The question is whether Russia or Ukraine would gain more from an opportunity to rest and rearm. My sense is the Ukrainian military thinks Russia would gain more, since it has deeper resources and a bigger population. Some Ukrainian civilians think a pause would refresh political support for the war.
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Rebuilding Ukraine: Hopes and Challenges
I’ll be speaking at the Kyiv School of Economics Monday, also via Zoom. Please join:
🗓️ Date and time: May 12, 18:00–19:30 EEST (GMT+3)
📍 Location: KSE, Room 1.08 and online zoom
🔗 Registration via the link –
Contact person: Mariia Yurina, myurina@kse.org.ua
Reflect together on what Ukraine’s future can and should look like.
Please, feel free to share it and invite people.
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First impressions of a peaceful Kyiv at war
I arrived in Kyiv after 10 pm Saturday night, after the 12-hour train ride from Chelm, Poland and the 3.5-hour train ride from Warsaw. It wasn’t an entirely auspicious arrival. The driver who was supposed to meet me showed up late and the train arrived early. Only a Polish acquaintance with whom I shared a cabin on the train saved the night. His Ukrainian girlfriend got in touch with the driver. She also drove us around to the other side of the train station, where he had left his car. I’d have been plenty worried otherwise.
The city
Arriving here is like arriving in no other conflict zone I’ve known. All the lights were on. The McDonalds are open. The traffic lights work, the traffic is intense, and the driving is at mostly moderate speeds. There are no burned out hulks lining the roads. I’ve seen only one Tesla, but late model European, Korean, and Japanese cars are the norm.
Ukraine is a big country. The front lines are hundreds of miles away. Yes, the Russians target Kyiv with missiles and drones, but Ukrainian air defense shoots many down. Kyiv’s population was once close to four million. The few that get through do real harm, even when they don’t hit their target. But the damage is still small compared to the size of the city.
Kyiv sits on hills and is strikingly varied in its architectural styles. A walker finds it visually stimulating. He also finds good espresso never more than 100 meters away. There are few empty storefronts. Lots of restaurants and cafes. The Cyrillic script is impenetrable to those of us who haven’t renewed our acquaintanceship recently. But lots of signs are also posted in English.
Uber and Bolt ride services work here, and there are many buses. But I haven’t used anything but the Metro. Its stations are really, really deep underground and serve also as bomb shelters. I assume the Soviets built them to double for that purpose. The escalators are faster than a Washingtonian is used to. I see Ukrainians dancing to get on too. Purchasing tickets online is easy and fast. Googlemaps works fine, even if my T-mobile service is on the slow side.
The people
Caveat emptor: I am staying in a posh area close to the center and speaking with people only in English. I am also spending time talking to students, professors, and administrators at the Kyiv School of Economics. So my sample selection is toward the relatively well-to-do and well-educated. I’ve talked with only one active-duty soldier. All the rest are civilians.
The overall atmosphere in the street is notably calm and respectful. I haven’t seen even two Ukrainians quarreling with each other. Everyone seems determined to go about their own business without troubling others. There is no pushing or shoving even in the crowded Metro. Drivers rarely honk. Pedestrians wait for the walk sign to turn green and don’t J-walk. Is this discipline a hangover from Soviet times, a new European habit, or a reaction to wartime? I can’t tell.
One Ukrainian has told me it is a reaction to wartime. No one wants to provoke the hidden nervous tension that can explode suddenly.
The downside is lack of big city boisterousness. No street theater or music, no people hawking silly toys or fake Gucci bags, no begging or grifting. Only an occasional woman selling flowers or plants. If there are homeless people, they are not in the center.
War and politics
The war memorials here are like the Vietnam memorial in DC. They focus on the names and personal histories of individual soldiers, not on the generals.
The only battle highlighted is the unsuccessful defense of the Avostal iron and steel plant in Mariupol.
Ukraine lost that one three years ago.
People are tired of the war, which the years have normalized. It barely disrupts Kyivans own lives, but everyone has family members or knows someone who has suffered. They want it to end, but not with a Ukrainian defeat or the prospect of a renewed Russian invasion. What this means isn’t clear, but people think they will know it when they see it. Determined to fight on in the meanwhile, they appreciate American assistance and express disappointment with President Trump’s realignment with Russia.
Kyivans are also unhappy with their own political leadership. They worry about corruption and politicians more concerned with their own careers than with the country’s fate. They bemoan the country’s lack of preparation for war in 2022. Most I’ve talked to don’t want President Zelensky re-elected. They want change, but no one has named a preference. Most Ukrainian presidents since independence have lasted only one term, or less. The one who served two was no paragon. Zelensky will have served six years of a four-year term May 20. That’s due to the constitution’s prohibition on holding elections under martial law.
First impressions
First impressions can be wrong. But overall Kyiv seems to me an attractive, friendly, and well-organized place. Street signs declare: “Kyiv is waiting for you after the victory.” It’s a strange message to those foreigners who are already here, but somehow appropriate as well.
Next up: I’ll hope to have something to say about Kyiv’s cultural, educational, and governing institutions.
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