peacefare.net

The way out runs through the Kremlin

President Putin has put himself in a losing situation, almost no matter what happens.

Putin couldn’t afford to win

Had he succeeded in taking Kyiv and overthrowing its government, he would have been in Colin Powell’s china shop quandary: you break it, you bought it. Even without the economic sanctions the West has levied, Russia had nowhere near the resources–hundreds of billions of dollars–required to fix Ukraine. Putin’s successful pacification of Chechnya relied heavily on physical reconstruction and supportive local potentates. Neither would have been available this time around.

He won’t like the consequences of partition either

The Russians have now decided to tone down the military assault on the capital and Russian-speaking Kharkiv. Both cities put up a stalwart defense. Instead, Moscow will focus on the east, where it already controlled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the south. The south is proving a challenge. Mariupol refuses to surrender and Kherson, the first major city the Russians captured, is still fighting back.

Here, too, winning is no consolation. If Putin succeeds in partitioning Ukraine, with part of the east and south under Moscow’s military control, the remainder of Ukraine will march straight into the arms NATO. While the Russian reconstruction burden would be lighter, Western sanctions would still make it difficult to bear.

In a partition scenario, NATO won’t welcome Kyiv with open arms. Many members are loath to take on the responsibility of defending any part of Ukraine. But Kyiv will be able to rely on the West for ample rearmament to defend against any new Russian offensive. The Ukrainians will also try hard to qualify for EU membership. After all, EU members Austria, Ireland, Finland, Malta and Sweden are officially neutral.

Losing might be Russia’s best bet

Russia could still lose the war and retreat entirely from Ukraine. It would then have an opportunity to negotiate the end of Western sanctions. That could happen in return for security guarantees for Ukraine, withdrawal of some NATO forces from near Russia’s borders, and limits on Ukrainian armament. Ukraine would still not be welcomed into NATO for the foreseeable future, though no one would guarantee neutral status forever.

But Putin can’t sell it

Russia wouldn’t be the first country to benefit from losing an ill-conceived and poorly executed war. But defeat would not benefit President Putin. Neither popular revolt nor election defeat seems likely, but you never know. You do know however that there are officers in the Russian army who didn’t like the invasion plan. The deaths already of nine or ten general officers in combat, along with more than 10,000 soldiers, won’t have made them happier.

President Biden’s remark in Warsaw about Putin made sense only as a wish for divine justice, or failing that a military coup. Biden says it was an expression of personal outrage, which makes sense. He wants to avoid it becoming the proverbial red line that Obama failed to enforce against President Assad in Syria. But the President also no doubt hopes someone in the inner circle will recognize that Putin has put Russia in a lose-lose-lose situation. The way out runs through the Kremlin.