Category: Daniel Serwer
Some advice is right, some wrong
Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a well-known figure in Washington, has offered some advice to President Biden (I used Googletranslate into English and apologize for any confusion that may cause):
- Confronting Iran should be top priority.
- Stronger and more confident in the 21st century, the Gulf Arab states have their own interests with China and Russia that the US should respect.
- Oil and gas are more important than ever.
- Forget about democracy and human rights.
- Don’t serve Israeli interests.
Iran, Russia, and China
The first two items I can agree with. Iran’s nuclear threshold status and its regional activities are serious problems for the Arab Gulf states and for the United States. The former makes the latter even more perilous. Yet somehow Abdulkhaleq concludes that Washington is wrong to want to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA aka Iran nuclear deal). Does he really think the push-back in the region will be easier once Tehran has nuclear weapons? Is he willing to risk a missile attack on Abu Dhabi or Dubai if the US and/or Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities?
The Gulf Arab states certainly have their own interests to pursue with Russia and China. OPEC+, that is the traditional oil cartel plus Moscow, is taking advantage of the Ukraine war to maintain high oil prices. Gulf oil and gas flow predominantly to the Far East, where China is a major consumer. That is bound to affect thinking in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh as well as Doha. Beijing is for now enjoying the benefits of sanctioned and discounted Russian oil but will no doubt have more to say about oil and gas prices than Washington, which may not always sound like it but is enjoying America’s role as an oil and gas exporter.
Energy
Oil and gas are not more important than ever to the world’s economy, even if they remain crucial to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia. We are in the last decades of oil dominance of energy markets. Gas is a different question. Europe and the U.S. may be suffering from high prices for the moment due to the Ukraine war, but that won’t last forever. In their latest rise, oil prices have not reached their previous peak in real terms and are now declining. Saudi Arabia and Russia both need more than $100/barrel to make their budgets balance. They are at about that mark today.
Democracy and human rights
Abdulkhaleq is frank in asking us to forget about democracy and human rights. Mostly we do, but the Arab Gulf states make it difficult. I might hope a professor who was once arrested for an errant tweet would be more supportive of Western concern about human rights. I might even suppose this paragraph is intended as personal protection. But it ill-behooves someone willing to harshly criticize American democracy, which he does, to suggest that Americans not speak up about state-sanctioned murder of a Saudi journalist and mistreatment of women that even the Kingdom is now reforming.
Israel
I imagine that fifth point is also about self-protection, though more from the Arab intellectual milieu than from the UAE government. Abu Dhabi is second to no other Gulf Arab state in seeking to improve relations with Israel, with which the UAE shares its position on the JCPOA. I don’t object to the former, even if I dislike the latter. The real question is whether the UAE will use the influence it has gained from the Ibrahimic accords to benefit the Palestinians, who have so far found themselves marginalized by the newfound friendship between Israel and the Arab Gulf.
My score
So I give the Professor a score of 2 out of 5, with extra credit for being frank and communicating clearly and concisely. Some of his advice is right, some wrong. But there is virtue in frankness.
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Stevenson’s army, July 1
FYI, I [Charlie Stevenson] have grandparent duty for much of the next few weeks and won’t be able to read and report on the news as often as usual.
Meanwhile. note that the Army has paused its rule allowing enlistment of kids without a high school degree.
Sen. Leahy’s hip surgery really complicates Democratic plans in the 50/50 Senate.
Sen. McConnell threatens to block action on the popular bipartisan America Competes Act if Democrats push a reconciliation bill.
Commerce plans to increase limits on technology exports.
Yesterday, Charlie posted this, while I was traveling, under the heading NATO and more:
– WaPo summarizes the meeting. Here’s the official communique and the new NATO Strategic Concept.
– Reuters says there’s a deal on Kaliningrad.
– Norway suffered a cyber attack.
-Former SASC staffer wants more for Pacific Deterrence Initiative.
– VA reform blocked by parochial Senators, WaPo says.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 28
– NATO will increase its quick reaction force.
– G-7 vow support for Ukraine.
– China wants the BRICS to make a free trade deal.
– SAIS profs Barno & Bensahel see lessons for US in Ukraine war.
– New Yorker explores US conservative support for Hungary.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 27
– Russia defaults, first time since 1918.
– Army drops requirement for high school diploma.
– Congressional games over LCS.
– Georgetown prof says US has unrealistic training of foreign troops.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 26
– NYT says US and allied commandos and spies have been helping Ukraine.
– WaPo says Russia is exhausting its combat capabilities.
– Russian missiles again attack Kyiv.
– WSJ reports secret military meetings to coordinate Israel and Arabs against Iran.
Charlie also posted this yesterday:
The Senate Intelligence Committee has reported an authorization bill.
The House Appropriations Subcommittee for State and Foreign Operations has reported its bill.
I’m still waiting for the House NDAA details.
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Albania’s strange support for Serbia
Former Albanian government minister and member of parliament Genc Pollo writes:
The meeting of the EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday, 23 June, took place against the backdrop of Putin’s bloody aggressive war. They correctly showed solidarity with Ukraine, the current victim, and Moldova, the next potential one, by granting both the status of candidate for membership in the Union. But a wartime European Council should have dealt with closing ranks in front of the enemy.
The only wayward state within the EU orbit that has rejected the sanctions against Putin’s Russia and has reconfirmed its friendship with the aggressor has been Serbia. Belgrade has been negotiating EU membership for eight years and has closed several chapters. It is already treaty-bound to align itself with the EU’s foreign and security policy. But Serbia’s President Vučić has has failed to adopt any EU measures against Putin’s past transgressions.
Strangely there wasn’t much fuss about this in the Council meeting or in the preceding summit of EU leaders and their Western Balkans counterparts. In addition, Vučić got help from someone who wouldn’t generally be expected to be an ally: Albanian Prime Minister Rama.
Vučić first tried to deflect attention. He proposed to the Prime Ministers of Albania and North Macedonia to boycott the upcoming summit as there was little chance for them to get a date for the start of EU membership talks. This EU decision has been due for the last two years but is still blocked by a Bulgarian veto unrelated to the EU membership process. How such a boycott would have been helpful in resolving the problem remains a mystery. And why Serbia should propose such a course of action to her neighbors needs explaining.
Prime Minister Rama however was quick to announce that he would agree with the boycott. Such an unprecedented gesture became the talk of the day in the mainstream media. It continued to echo even after the boycott was called off the day after. Along with the Bulgarian veto it sharpened the sense of drama in Brussels and left little room to discuss the pressing issue of a possible fifth column in their midst.
In the Western Balkans summit, Rama both in his published speech and in the following press conference with Vučić, went to great lengths to justify the Serbian position towards Russia. Referring to distorted interpretations of historical and economic facts, Rama criticized the West for its pressure on Serbia.
Such a stance is a novelty in post-Communist Albania, where leaders, supported by public opinion, have always aligned themselves with the EU and the West in security matters. It comes in the wake of the controversial Open Balkans initiative championed by Belgrade and Tirana but disowned by the other states of the Western Balkans. The initiative is considered an “unhealthy competition to the EU integration” by European Commission officials but has received recently the rhetorical support of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Both Rama and Vučić have been consolidating their personal power over the last decade. dismantling constitutional checks, muzzling the media, and politicizing the state bureaucracy. Scandals of grand corruption and collusion with the underworld have abounded. The latest twist adds, at least for Albania, an additional concern. The re-energized political opposition in Tirana has been denouncing the suspect rapprochement with Belgrade, as they see it being done at the expense of Kosovo. There will be more on their plate for the weeks and months to come.
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